Forecast and levels for GBP - page 21

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UK Unemployment Rate Rises Marginally

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.19 11:19

UK Unemployment Rate Rises Marginally

The UK unemployment rate rose only marginally in the first quarter, data from the Office for National Statistics showed Tuesday.
The ILO jobless rate came in at 3.9 percent, well below economists' forecast of 4.4 percent. The ONS said the unemployment rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous quarter.



At the same time, the employment rate in the three months to March reached a joint-record high of 76.6 percent, which was 0.6 percentage points higher than a year earlier. Today's labor force survey estimates for January to March period remained mostly unaffected by the impact of the coronavirus, the ONS said.

Data showed that average earnings including bonus grew 2.4 percent from last year, slower than the expected 2.6 percent. Excluding bonus, average earnings advanced 2.7 percent annually, slightly faster than the forecast of 2.6 percent.

In April, the claimant count rate rose to a seasonally adjusted 5.8 percent from 3.5 percent a month ago. The number of jobless claims increased sharply by 856,500 in April.

source..

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Downturn in UK private sector continues in May; "the recovery will be measured in years not months"

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.21 11:29

Downturn in UK private sector continues in May; "the recovery will be measured in years not months"

UK private sector output remained on a steep downward trajectory in May due to business shutdowns amid the coronavirus, or Covid-19, pandemic, according to the flash survey results published by IHS Markit, on Thursday.


The flash IHS Markit/Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply composite output index rose to 28.9 in May from 13.8 in April. The score was also above the expected 25.7.

Nonetheless, the latest reading signaled a far steeper pace of contraction than at the worst point of the global financial crisis.

The services Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 27.8 versus 13.4 in April. The reading was forecast to rise to 25.0.

The manufacturing PMI advanced to 40.6 in May from 32.6 in the previous month. The expected level was 36.0.

"While the quarterly rate of decline looks likely to peak at around 20% in the second quarter, the recovery will be measured in years not months," Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, said.

source..


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.05 15:12

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, Dollar Index (DXY) and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2020-06-05 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is -20687K
  • forecast data is -7750K
  • actual data is 2509K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate declined to 13.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In May, employment rose sharply in leisure and hospitality, construction, education and health services, and retail trade. By contrast, employment in government continued to decline sharply."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

GBP/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

U.K. economy contracts by record 20.4%

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.12 10:51

U.K. economy contracts by record 20.4%


GDP contracted a record 20.4% in April, the largest monthly fall on record, as businesses and workers reeled under a lockdown designed to control the coronavirus pandemic. In the three months to April, gross domestic product contracted by 10.4 per cent from the previous three-month-period, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday.

The Bank of England and the country's budget office have warned that Britain could be heading for its deepest recession in three centuries this year.

source..

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The chart was made with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.16 11:26

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Unemployment Change and range price movement  

2020-06-16 07:00 GMT | [GBP - Claimant Count Change]

  • past data is 1032.7K
  • forecast data is 405.3K
  • actual data is 528.9K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Claimant Count Change] = Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

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From forexcrunch article :

  • "Meanwhile, Tuesday’s mixed UK employment details did little to provide any meaningful impetus. According to the report, the unemployment rate held steady at 3.9% during the three months to April as compared to rise to 4.5% anticipated. The positive reading was largely negated by higher-than-expected Claimant Count Change, which came in at 528.9K, and an upward revision of the previous month’s reading to 1032.7K."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Unemployment Change news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Unemployment Change news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.19 13:12

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing and range price movement  

2020-06-19 07:00 GMT | [GBP - Public Sector Net Borrowing]

  • past data is 47.8B
  • forecast data is 49.3B
  • actual data is 54.5B according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Public Sector Net Borrowing] = Difference in value between spending and income for public corporations, the central government, and local governments during the previous month.

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From rttnews article :

  • "The UK budget deficit reached a record high in May and government debt exceeded 100 percent of GDP for the first time since 1963 due to public health measures and economic stimulus adopted by the government amid coronavirus pandemic, official data showed Friday."
  • "Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks, totaled GBP 55.2 billion, roughly nine times or GBP 49.6 billion more than in May 2019, the Office for National Statistics reported. This was the highest borrowing in any month on record began in 1993."
  • "PSNB for April was revised down by GBP 13.6 billion to GBP 48.5 billion largely due to stronger than previously estimated tax receipts and National Insurance contributions. The ONS said estimates are subject to greater than usual uncertainty."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Public Sector Net Borrowing news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Public Sector Net Borrowing news event

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

The forum threads
  1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
  2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
  3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
  4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

  1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
  2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
  3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
  4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.23 11:51

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Manufacturing PMI, BoE Gov Bailey Speech and range price movement  

2020-06-23 09:30 GMT | [GBP - UK Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 40.7
  • forecast data is 45.2
  • actual data is 50.1 according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - UK Manufacturing PMI] = Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

==========

From official report :

  • "The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Flash UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) – a composite single-figure indicator of manufacturing performance – posted 50.1 in June, up from 40.7 in May and fractionally above the neutral 50.0 value. Moreover, the manufacturing output index also moved back into growth territory (50.8), which ended ending a three-month period of decline. Higher volumes of production were linked to a partial reopening of manufacturing plants."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Manufacturing PMI news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Manufacturing PMI news event

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.07.02 19:31

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, NZD/USD and Dollar Index (DXY): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2020-07-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 2699K
  • forecast data is 3037K
  • actual data is 4800K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 11.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In June, employment in leisure and hospitality rose sharply. Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, education and health services, other services, manufacturing, and professional and business services."

==========

GBP/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

GBP/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

NZD/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

NZD/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.07.06 14:36

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Construction PMI and range price movement  

2020-07-06 11:30 GMT | [GBP - Construction PMI]

  • past data is 28.9
  • forecast data is 46.0
  • actual data is 55.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Construction PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the construction industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "June data pointed to a sharp turnaround in the performance of the UK construction sector as the phased restart of work on site helped to lift output volumes and boost business confidence. At the same time, new orders stabilised after three months of sharp declines and purchasing activity expanded at the fastest rate since December 2015. The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction Total Activity Index jumped to 55.3 in June, from 28.9 in May, to signal a strong increase in total construction output. Moreover, the latest reading signalled the steepest pace of expansion since July 2018. Higher levels of business activity were overwhelmingly linked to the reopening of the UK construction supply chain following stoppages and business closures during the early stages of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic."

==========

GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Construction PMI news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Construction PMI news event

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.07.26 12:10

GBP/USD - primary bullish trend to be continuing; 1.2812 is the nearest target to re-enter(based on the article)

GBP/USD Ichimoku daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • The fundamental outlook for the British Pound looks relatively bleak amid renewed ‘no deal’ Brexit concerns."
  • "A break below the April high (1.2648) may invalidate the break of the yearly downtrend and potentially open up a path for a retracement back to the July low (1.2359)."

============

The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


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