Forecast and levels for JPY - page 12

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.03.28 16:10

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD, USD/JPY and Nikkei 225: United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

2019-03-28 12:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "initial" estimate issued last month. In the initial estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.6 percent. With this estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; personal consumption expenditures (PCE), state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment were revised down; imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were also revised down (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2)."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news event

USD/CAD: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news event

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USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news event

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news event

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Nikkei 225: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news event

Nikkei 225: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.04.10 16:09

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD, USD/JPY and Dow Jones: United States Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2019-04-10 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in February,  the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.9 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news event 

USD/CAD: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news event

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USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news event 

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news event

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Dow Jones: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news event 

Dow Jones: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news event

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.04.15 09:22

USD/JPY - daily bullish; 112 is the key (based on the article)

USD/JPY chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The Japanese Yen has returned to the defensive against the US Dollar after a period of daily-chart strength last week, with USD/JPY well illustrating the value of Fibonacci retracement levels to technical analysis. Between April 7 and 10 the pair retreated below the uptrend channel which had previously bounded trade since the lows of March 25. A surge in market risk aversion saw the Dollar and Yen locked in a ‘battle of the havens’ which the latter seemed to be winning. USD/JPY saw three consecutive days of quite heavy falls up to April 10. However, then Mr. Fibonacci took charge. USD/JPY’s fall duly halted at the first, 23.6% retracement level of 2019’s rise."
  • "That came in at 110.86 which, not at all coincidentally, was the intraday low of April 10. Since then the pair has edged albeit gingerly back into that uptrend channel and, perhaps as significantly, risen back into the important resistance zone composed of the previous significant highs. They were struck in early March."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.04.18 15:58

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY: United States Retail Sales

2019-04-18 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From nytimes article :

  • "U.S. retail sales increased by the most in 1-1/2 years in March as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, the latest indication that economic growth picked up in the first quarter after a false start."
  • "The Commerce Department said on Thursday retail sales surged 1.6 percent last month. That was the biggest increase since September 2017 and followed an unrevised 0.2 percent drop in February."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

EUR/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

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GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

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USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.05.23 09:11

USD/JPY - Bullish Pattern (based on the article)

USD/JPY daily chart with ZUP pattern finder indicator

We are tracking a bullish 5-3 wave pattern for USD/JPY. This is where you have a 5 wave motive wave to start a new trend followed by a three wave partial retracement.

USD/JPY chart made with ZUP pattern finder indicator for Metatrader

The motive wave began on January 2, 2019 and carried to March 5, 2019. From there, a sideways flat pattern carved in three waves labeled (a)-(b)-(c). The wave structure from the May 13 low appears to be a leading diagonal pattern. If this interpretation is correct, then another large rally may begin soon. 

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Chart was made on MT4 with ZUP indicator. All the information about this indicator are the following:

The threads/posts

  1. you can draw a AP manually without an indicator - the post 
  2. Harmonic Trading thread with ZUP indicators
  3. Trading the Andrews Pitchfork with Max - the good thread with real examples of trading
  4. ZUP_v150 indicator with template - the post
  5. How to Draw Pitchforks (Median Lines) - the post with video
  6. A PitchFork Price function to return price at any point and deviation from median available for general use - the thread
  7. Pitchfork and ObjectGetValueByShift - the thread
  8. Pitchfork panel - the post with the indicator
  9. Pitchfork indicator - the post  

The articles

  1. ZUP - Universal ZigZag with Pesavento Patterns. Part 2
  2. ZUP - universal ZigZag with Pesavento patterns. Graphical interface
  3. ZUP - Universal ZigZag with Pesavento Patterns. Part 1

MQL5

  1. OBJ_PITCHFORK - mql5 reference page

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.06.04 17:11

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and NZD/USD: Federal Reserve System (Fed) Chair Powell Speech

2019-06-04 13:55 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks]

[USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks] = Speech about the Federal Reserve's policy strategy, tools, and communication practices at an event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

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From cnbc article :

  • "Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is watching current economic developments and will do what it must to keep the near-record expansion going. Financial markets have been nervous lately over an escalating trade war that has spread from China and now could include Mexico. At the same, government bond yields are behaving in a way that in the past has been a reliable recession indicator."
  • "Powell has stuck to the position that the Fed remains data dependent. The most recent FOMC statement, from its May meeting, indicated that the committee is taking a patient stance toward policy changes at conditions evolve."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news event

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USD/JPY: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news event

USD/JPY: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news event

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NZD/USD: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news event

NZD/USD: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.06.05 07:51

USD/JPY - strong primary bearish (based on the article)

USD/JPY weekly chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The Japanese Yen is now a clear winner in its battle of the havens with the US Dollar. Global risk aversion largely rooted in the intensification of trade war between China and the US has seen USDJPY retreat very close to its lows for the year, which were made in early January."
  • "Technically speaking the pair now flirts with a decisive break of 108.43 on its daily chart. That point is significant because it marks the fourth, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rise up from the lows of March 2018 to the peak of October the same year. That peak has not been topped since. 
    If a break lower through it is confirmed then the Dollar will find itself in a zone of support between that point and 106.97 which is the final retracement point before the pair is looking at total negation of the entire rise."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.06.26 16:23

USD/JPY - bearish breakdown; 107 is the key (based on  the article)

USD/JPY daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "USD/JPY: Retail trader data shows 70.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.42 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 03 when USD/JPY traded near 111.552; price has moved 3.5% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 3.5% higher than yesterday and 12.1% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.3% higher than yesterday and 2.7% higher from last week."

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The chart was made with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.07.04 09:53

USD/JPY - bearish triangle pattern; 106.77 is the key (based on  the article)

USD/JPY weekly chart by Metatrader 5

  • "A persistent slide in US Treasury yields, waning hopes for Chinese-US trade settlement and the possibility of new US tariffs on European goods have all added to investors’ already lengthy worry list, so it’s hardly surprising that the Yen should play its hallowed fundamental role."
  • "Technically USDJPY’s late-June bounce seems to have petered out at this week’s highs of 108.51 or so. Still, the pair remains above the formerly pervasive downtrend line which has marked the Yen’s strengthening since late April. With the US disrupted for the Independence Day break it might yet be premature to write off the latest Dollar rally completely."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

 
Sergey Golubev:

I think that now we have to wait for the price growth and then sell USDJPY. Most TFs have a downward trend, and as the main postulate of technical analysis says, the trend is likely to continue. Good levels for sale are 108.50 and 109.00

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The chart was made on MT4 with standard indicators of Metatrader 4

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