Forecast and levels for JPY - page 5

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.25 07:42

USD/JPY - daily bearish ranging within 108.60/110.94 for bearish resumed or bullish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud for the bearish area of the chart with the ranging within 108.60 support level for the bearish trend to be continuing and 110.94 resistance level for the bullish reversal to be started. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the beatrish as the most likely direction in this situation for example.


  • "The technical picture of the USD/JPY cross is rather simple. If we see a price break and close below 108.13, all hands will be on deck to see if imminent JPY strength is back and if it can take USD/JPY lower to 107.50 followed by 105.30, the two key support zones in view. If USD/JPY breaks above the recent resistance of 110.37 (Aug. 17 high), we may be seeing a reversal to the top of the long-term range in the 114 zone."
  • "Retail trader data shows 70.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.34 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Jul 18 when USDJPY traded near 113.359; theprice has moved 3.8% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 4.9% higher than yesterday and 19.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.5% higher than yesterday and 11.7% higher from last week."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.26 07:59

Weekly USD/JPY Outlook: 2017, August 27 - September 03 (based on the article)

Dollar/yen was leaning lower in a week that saw further political issues for President Trump. Nevertheless, the pair maintains a distance from the 108.10 level which remains critical.


  1. The last week of August and the first day of September provide a lot of action. A revised measure of GDP, consumer confidence and a short buildup to the Non-Farm Payrolls stand out. Will wages finally rise in the US? The report for August will probably show more of the same.
  2. In Japan, we will get industrial output, retail sales, and unemployment. However, politics in the US and geopolitics will move the safe-haven yen more than anything else.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.01 14:57

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY: Non-Farm Employment Change

2017-09-01 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 189K
  • forecast data is 180K
  • actual data is 156K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 156,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in manufacturing, construction, professional and technical services, health care, and mining."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.20 08:31

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (JPY) and range price movement 

2017-09-20 00:50 GMT | [JPY - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 0.36T
  • forecast data is 0.41T
  • actual data is 0.37T according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. 

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From rttnews article :

  • "Japan posted a merchandise trade surplus of 113.642 billion yen in August, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday. That beat forecasts for a surplus of 104.4 billion yen, although it was down from 418.8 billion yen in July."
  • "The adjusted trade surplus was 367.3 billion yen, missing expectations for 404.7 billion yen and up from 363.1 billion yen in July."

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (JPY) news event 



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.20 15:26

USD/JPY - daily rally to the bullish reversal; 111.87 is the key (based on the article)

The price on the daily chart is on bullish reversal by ascending triangle pattern to be crossing to above together with 111.87 resistance level for the price to be reversed to the bullish market condition.


  • "The question is, when does a lower high break higher and thus signal a changing of a trend from lower to higher? USD/JPY is at a potential breaking point such that if the downtrend remains, here is a great place for the market to turn. Highly correlated markets like the US Treasury 10Yr Yields (overlaid as a line on the chart below) are also at a seeming turning point."
  • "The key point on the chart of USD/JPY is that the price pattern is that of a wedge. Wedges tend to indicate big moves on the horizon. However, the direction of the move is less certain. A similar wedge pattern is developing in UST 10Yr Yields. The direction of the wedge is lower since the double top in yields from late 2016, early 2017 at the 2.62 level."
  • "From a fundamental perspective, the markets await FOMC, which is unlikely to surprise in a hawkish given uneven data prints in the US. A more dovish than anticipated Fed would motivate the broader USD selling trend and likely send USD/JPY lower. In Japan, the focal events are the BoJ and the Lower House election, which is not expected to directly affect the JPY due to the recent subdued JPY price volatility."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.21 08:07

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of Japan Policy Rate and range price movement 

2017-09-21 04:15 GMT | [JPY - BOJ Policy Rate]

  • past data is 0.36T
  • forecast data is 0.41T
  • actual data is 0.37T according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - BOJ Policy Rate] = Interest rate levied on excess current account balances held at the BOJ. 

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From rttnews article :

  • "The Bank of Japan kept its monetary stimulus unchanged as widely expected on Thursday."
  • "Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his board members decided by an 8-1 majority vote to hold its target of raising the amount of outstanding JGB holdings at an annual pace of about JPY 80 trillion."

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by BOJ Policy Rate news event 

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Chart was made on M10 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.23 19:23

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)


USD/JPY - "The big item on next week’s calendar out of Japan is inflation for the month of August, set to be released on Thursday evening (Friday morning in Europe and Japan). Given that we’ve just gotten a fresh dose of dovishness from the BoJ, this would likely need to be shockingly-high to directly elicit Yen strength, as the .4% inflation that we’ve seen for the past four months is well-below the BoJ’s 2% target and keeps the BoJ in a position to remain as one of the more dovish global Central Banks."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.02 16:06

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY: ISM Manufacturing PMI

2017-10-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 58.8
  • forecast data is 57.9
  • actual data is 60.8 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report :

  • "Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September, and theoverall economy grew for the 100th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latestManufacturing ISM® Report On Business®."
  • "The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The September PMI® registered 60.8 percent, an increase of 2 percentage points from the August reading of 58.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 64.6 percent, an increase of 4.3 percentage points from the August reading of 60.3 percent."

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.04 10:00

USD/JPY - daily bullish reversal; 113,25 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud from below to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition: the price is testing 113,25 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing, otherwise - ranging within the levels.


  • "The Japanese Yen has been hammered by US Dollar bulls in the past month, to an extent quite unusual this year. The greenback has risen by nearly six full Yen since its lows of early September, as investors looked at stronger US economic numbers and a Federal Reserve still apparently intent on raising interest rates in December should those numbers hold up. By contrast in Japan ultra-loose monetary policy still rules and, while consumer price inflation is clearly rising in a way sure to please its own central bankers, a sustainable 2% rate remains a distant and possibly unrealisable dream. The resulting, wider yield gap in US Treasury’s favour hit the Yen too."
  • "That quick fundamental detour aside, however, USD/JPY has clearly been in some sort of topping out process since September 21 and, although the days since include the current rally’s highs, the bulls seem be pausing for breath, at least."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.07 16:59

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)


USD/JPY - "As a result, the FOMC Minutes may spark fresh monthly highs in USD/JPY as a growing number of Fed officials look to further normalize monetary policy over the coming months, and the pair may continue to broadly track changes in U.S. Treasury Yields as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) sticks to its Quantitative/Qualitative Easing (QQE) Program with Yield-Curve Control. Moreover, the U.S. data prints on tap for the week ahead may also prop up dollar-yen as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to increase for the fourth straight month in September, while Retail Sales are expected to rebound 1.4% during the same period."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


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