Forecast and levels for JPY - page 13

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.07.11 10:17

USD/JPY - bear market rally; 109 is the key (based on  the article)

USD/JPY daily AscTrend chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The Japanese Yen has begun to gain again on the US Dollar once more, with the Federal Reserve’s apparent willingness to keep interest rate cuts on the table, despite last week’s good news from the labor market, providing the fundamental backdrop for this latest bout of Greenback weakness. 
    Technically, USDJPY’s short-term daily chart bias would appear to be to the downside too, if not quite conclusively yet. The pair is flirting with a break of a quite well-respected uptrend line which has so far market the bounce seen from the effective 2019 lows reached in late June. "
  • "Clearly a daily or weekly close below that line looks highly likely at this point and, unless Dollar bulls can reassert themselves, the base of the current trading range looks set for a revisit. That comes in at 108.80 and its hard to see any conclusive falls below that failing to retest the year’s low, probably quite quickly."
  • "The range top at 108.98 provides those Dollar bulls with their most obvious upside target, but they would probably need to consolidate in that region before they could dare to dream of retaking all of the sharp falls seen on May 31. The pair would need to rise back to 109.60 if it is to fully erase them. That looks like a tall order."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.07.25 17:31

Intra-Day Fundamentals - NZD/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CNH: United States  Core Durable Goods Orders

2019-07-25 12:30 GMT | [USD - Core Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is 0.4%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 1.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items.

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From official report :

  • "New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $4.9 billion or 2.0 percent to $246.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed a 2.3 percent May decrease.  Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.2 percent.   Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.1 percent.  Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $3.0 billion or 3.8 percent to $80.5 billion."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by United States  Core Durable Goods Orders news events

NZD/USD: range price movement by United States Core Durable Goods Orders news events

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USD/JPY: range price movement by United States  Core Durable Goods Orders news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Core Durable Goods Orders news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by United States  Core Durable Goods Orders news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Core Durable Goods Orders news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.08.15 09:21

USD/JPY - bearish ranging; 105.04 is the key (based on  the article)

USD/JPY chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The Japanese Yen remains the beneficiary of a broad fundamental haven bid against the US Dollar with USDJPY bulls’ current modest fightback unlikely to last. The pair got a boost on Tuesday of this week when the Trump administration indicated that some tariffs against China could be delayed."
  • "However, much of that rise has already been retraced and the Dollar remains very close to lows not seen since March 2018 if the ‘flash crash low of 104.68 hit on January 2 this year is ignored. If as currently seems likely the pair is indeed topping out again, support can be expected at those previous significant low. That come in at 105.05. Should they give way in turn, then more interesting and possibly resilient support lies below it at 104.65."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following indicator from CodeBase: 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.08.22 11:09

USD/JPY - bearish ranging within 105/107 support/resistance levels (based on the article)

USD/JPY daily Brainwashing chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Looking at the daily chart, we notice at the start of this week USD/JPY opened with an upward gap, since then the pair has been moving ineffectively reflecting the market’s indecision. Currently, the price is moving in the trading zone 105.50 – 107.30 and eyes a test of the high end of the zone, contingent on overtaking the 107.00 handle."
  • "Thus, a close above the high end could push USDJPY towards 108.61. Although, the weekly resistance levels and area marked on the chart (zoomed in) should be kept in focus."
  • "On the other hand, a close below the low end may send the USDJPY towards 104.77 however, the weekly support area underlined on the chart needs to be watched closely. Further close below 104.77 could press the price even lower towards 103.07. The weekly support levels should be considered."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.09.05 08:24

USD/JPY - daily/weekly price is on oversold; secondary breakout withint the primary bearish trend is expected(based on the article)

USD/JPY daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "US Dollar weakness and a general push toward counter-cyclical perceived haven assets have seen the Japanese Yen break through an important barrier against the greenback. However, Yen bulls have yet to nail down their gains and they may yet lose them if they can’t do so this month. At the start of August, USD/JPY slipped below an important medium-term monthly-chart uptrend line which had previously held since May 2016. It didn’t remain below it for the entire month but did close out underneath, where, so far, it remains."
  • "Another monthly close below this line would make matters a lot worse for Dollar bulls, and, although it’s still early in September, they seem to be showing some fight. Their first order of business must be to recapture near-term resistance at 106.79. That marked the intraday peak of August 15 and can be seen as the bottom of a narrow range of daily-chart resistance which has the peak of August 6 (107.04) as its top."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following indicator from CodeBase: 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.09.19 12:15

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD, USD/JPY and USD/CNH: Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2019-09-18 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 2.25%
  • forecast data is 2.00%
  • actual data is 2.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report :

  • "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-3/4 to 2 percent. This action supports the Committee's view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by  Federal Funds Rate news events

USD/CAD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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USD/JPY: range price movement by  Federal Funds Rate news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by  Federal Funds Rate news events

SD/CNH: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.10.04 15:10

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CNH: United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2019-10-04 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 168K
  • forecast data is 145K
  • actual data is 136K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "The unemployment rate declined to 3.5 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 136,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in health care and in professional and business services continued to trend up."

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USD/JPY: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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USD/CAD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

USD/CAD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.10.29 15:15

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD and USD/JPY: CB Consumer Confidence

2019-10-29 14:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 125.1
  • forecast data is 128.2
  • actual data is 125.9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased marginally in October, following a decline in September. The Index now stands at 125.9 (1985=100), down from 126.3 in September. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased from 170.6 to 172.3. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – declined from 96.8 last month to 94.9 this month."
  • "Consumer confidence was relatively flat in October, following a decrease in September,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index improved, but Expectations weakened slightly as consumers expressed some concerns about business conditions and job prospects. However, confidence levels remain high and there are no indications that consumers will curtail their holiday spending."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

GBP/USD: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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USD/JPY: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

USDJPY  has waited its pullback until FED's rate decition. Price will likely to continue its downtrend.






 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.11.15 15:32

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/JPY, GOLD (XAU/USD) and Dax Index: United States Advance Retail Sales

2019-11-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is -0.3%
  • forecast data is 0.3%
  • actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From marketwatch article :

  • "Retail sales increased 0.3% last month, the government said Friday, matching the forecast of economists polled by MarketWatch. The increase in sales was concentrated in just a few segments, however. If autos and gasoline are excluded, sales rose a scant 0.1%, with almost all of that gain coming from internet retailers."

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

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USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

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XAU/USD: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

XAU/USD: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

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Dax Index: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

Dax Index: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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The forum threads
  1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
  2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
  3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
  4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

  1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
  2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
  3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
  4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles


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