Forecast and levels for NZD - page 7

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.11 17:23

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, NZD/USD and USD/CAD: United States Consumer Price Index

2018-04-11 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.2%
  • forecast data is 0.0%
  • actual data is -0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent inMarch on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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Dollar Index M1: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news events

Dollar Index chart by MT5

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NZD/USD M1: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news events

NZDUSD chart by MT5

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news events

USDCAD chart by MT5

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The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.27 13:55

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade and range price movement 

2018-04-26 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 172M
  • forecast data is 270M
  • actual data is -86M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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From official report :

  • "Goods exports rose $265 million (5.8 percent) to $4.9 billion."
  • "Goods imports rose $612 million (14 percent) to $4.9 billion."
  • "The monthly trade balance was a deficit of $86 million (1.8 percent of exports)."
  • "The March 2018 deficit was the first March deficit since 2008."

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NZD/USD M15: range price movement by New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade news event 

NZDUSD chart by Metatrader 5

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.30 08:08

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ANZ Business Confidence and range price movement 

2018-04-30 02:00 GMT | [NZD - ANZ Business Confidence]

  • past data is -20.0
  • forecast data is n/a
  • actual data is -23.4 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, retailers, agricultural firms, and service providers.

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From forexlive article :

  • "New Zealand April ANZ business confidence -23.4 vs -20.0 prior."
  • "The reading is based on a survey rating the economic outlook over the next 12 months. A reading above 0.0 indicates optimism while a reading below that indicates pessimism. It is a general gauge of business and economic sentiment towards the New Zealand economy."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event 

NZDUSD chart by Metatrader 5

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.02 08:08

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Employment Change and range price movement 

2018-05-01 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people.

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From businessinsider article :

  • "The unemployment rate in New Zealand came in at a seasonally adjusted 4.4 percent in the first quarter of 2018, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday. That was in line with expectations and down from 4.5 percent in the three months prior."
  • "The employment change was 0.6 percent on quarter and 3.1 percent on year."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Employment Change news event 

NZDUSD chart by Metatrader 5

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post together with the following indicators from CodeBase:

NZDUSD chart by Metatrader 5


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.21 08:38

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Retail Sales and range price movement 

2018-05-20 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 1.4% 
  • forecast data is 1.0%
  • actual data is 0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

==========

From official report :

  • "The total volume of retail sales rose 0.1 percent."
  • "Industry movements were divided, with 7 showing higher sales volumes and 8 showing lower sales volumes."
  • "Electrical and electronic goods had the largest dollar volume increase in this series, up 5.4 percent. Trends for the sales volume in this industry have been rising over the past 10 years; coincidently price changes in this industry have generally fallen over the same period."
  • "Supermarket and grocery stores, plus pharmaceutical and other store-based industries, both recorded notable increases for the March 2018 quarter, up 1.0 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Retail Sales news event 

NZD/USD by Metatrader 5

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.24 06:03

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade and range price movement 

2018-05-23 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -156M 
  • forecast data is 200M
  • actual data is 263M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "New Zealand posted a merchandise trade surplus of NZ$263 million in April, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday - representing 5.2 percent on exports. That exceeded forecasts for a NZ$198 million surplus following the NZ$156 million deficit in March."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade news event 


==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.12 16:16

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, NZD/USD and GOLD: U.S. Consumer Price Index

2018-06-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core CPI]

  • past data is 0.1%
  • forecast data is 0.1%
  • actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items  index rose 2.8 percent before seasonal adjustment."
  • "The indexes for gasoline and shelter were the largest factors in the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index, as they were in April. The gasoline index increased 1.7 percent, more than offsetting declines in some of the other energy component indexes and led to a 0.9-percent rise in the energy index. The medical care index rose 0.2 percent. The food index was unchanged over the month."
  • "The all items index rose 2.8 percent for the 12 months ending May, continuing its upward trend since the beginning of the year. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.2 percent for the 12 months ending May. The food index increased 1.2  percent, and the energy index rose 11.7 percent."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events

Dollar Index by Metatrader 5

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events

NZD/USD by Metatrader 5

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events

GOLD/USD chart by Metatrader 5

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5 and MT4:

  • BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
  • Rules to trade manually
  • How to install  
  • TSD DS jurik BrainTrading system - the key thread 
  • TSD BrainTrading Stochastics system - the post 
  • BrainTrading Semi-Manual EA for M30 timeframe system - the thread 
  • The differences between Brainwashing and BrainTrading system - the post.

 
6-18 Elliottwave Analysis: NZDUSD, sell at 0.6957

NZDUSD closed below daily Ichimoku Kijun-sen and H4 lower bands.

Long term trend still firmly point down, upside should be limited.

Elliottwave Analysis: NZDUSD, sell at 0.6957

NZDUSD closed below daily Ichimoku Kijun-sen and H4 lower bands.

Long term trend still firmly point down, upside should be limited.

From an Eliiottwave perspective, further downside toward 0.6761/0.6647 could not be ruled out.

After DXY break higher, Kiwi looks a little "rich" around current levels.

Go short against H4 upper bands provide good risk-reward for now.

Daily support levels: 0.6925 0.6910 0.6895

Dialy resistance levels: 0.6962 0.6984 0.7007

NZDUSD Trade Idea: (Spot 0.6942)

Sell @ 0.6957 SL 0.7061 Take Profit @ 0.6778

Intraday Trade Idea: 

Sell Latentinterest Order:  0.6962

Buy Latentinterest Order:  0.6879

Click on the image to enlarge


1

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.21 07:05

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2018-06-20 23:45 GMT | [NZD - GDP]

  • past data is 0.6%
  • forecast data is 0.5%
  • actual data is 0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "Economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), was up 0.5 percent in the March 2018 quarter. Growth eased slightly after increases of 0.6 percent each in the previous two quarters. GDP grew 2.7 percent over the year ended March 2018."
  • "The service industries were up 0.6 percent in the March 2018 quarter, down from a 1.1 percent increase in the December 2017 quarter. An increase in manufacturing was offset by a fall in construction activity, resulting in a flat quarter for the goods-producing industries. The primary industries were up 0.6 percent, rebounding slightly from a 2.6 percent fall in the previous quarter."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Gross Domestic Product news event 

NZD/USD chart by Metatrader 5

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.25 13:57

NZD/USD - daily primary bearish; 0.6825 is the key for the bearish trend to be continuing (based on the article)

NZD/USD daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "You will note that the Morning Star bullish reversal pattern formed back in late-May failed to generate much follow-through and the downtrend since mid-April appears to be trying to resume course. Though at this point, we still do not have a weekly close below the March 2009 line. Instead, Kiwi Dollar tested horizontal support from May 2017."
  • "Looking at the daily chart gives us a better picture of what has been going on around those key support areas. Now, another morning star has formed and warrants close attention as this could mean the pair may turn higher in the near-term. In fact, prices were unable to close below the May 16th low at 0.6852 and they stalled just above 0.6818 at one point."
  • "All of this points to very stubborn and well-established floors that the pair will have to fall through before we can confirm that NZD/USD is heading for a lasting continuation of its downturn from mid-April. Nevertheless, a break below support (which is closely aligned with the 50% Fibonacci extension at 0.6788) opens the door to test the 61.8% level at 0.6723. At that point, we are looking at 2016 lows."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


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