Forecast and levels for Oil - page 19

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.08.07 15:32

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and Brent Crude Oil: United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2020-08-07 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 4791K
• forecast data is 1530K
• actual data is 1763K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

• "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.8 million in July, and the unemployment rate fell to 10.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In July, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, government, retail trade, professional and business services, other services, and health care."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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USD/JPY: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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Brent Crude Oil: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.08.26 20:00

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD, Brent Crude Oil and GOLD (XAU/USD): Unites States Durable Goods Orders

2020-08-26 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is 7.6%
• forecast data is 4.3%
• actual data is 11.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

==========

From forextv article :

• "Reflecting a sharp increase in orders for transportation equipment, the Commerce Department released a report on Wednesday showing new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods spiked by much more than expected in the month of July. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders skyrocketed by 11.2 percent in July after surging up by a revised 7.7 percent in June."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

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Brent Crude Oil: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Laguerre - indicator for MetaTrader 5 (as a part of Laguerre scalping system)

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.08.29 10:58

Crude Oil - weekly bullish reversal; daily waiting for direction; 46.21 is the key nearest resistance level for the weekly bullish reversal (based on the article)

• "The price of oil pulls back from a fresh monthly high ($43.78) even though US Crude Inventories contract for six consecutive weeks, and energy prices may continue to consolidate over the coming days as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) gradually rollback the voluntary production cuts in response to COVID-19."

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• SilverTrend_NRTR - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

The forum threads

1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
   
5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles

• Introduction to the Empirical Mode Decomposition Method  
  
• Building a Spectrum Analyzer  
• Analysis of the Main Characteristics of Time Series

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.09.02 17:35

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: daily bullish ranging; 46.21 is the key

2020-09-02 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is -4.7M
• forecast data is -2.0M
• actual data is -9.4M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 9.4 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil: range price movement by  U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• AbsoluteStrengthMarket - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.09.09 08:00

Crude Oil - daily bearish breakdown; 39.29 is the key support for the bearish trend to be continuing (based on the article)

• "Breakdown in Crude Oil sparks talk of sub $30 price targets. Initial support likely near $32 to $33. Predictive Modeling suggests deeper price lows may be reached before November 2020." 
• "If our ADL predictive modeling is correct, we will see rotation between $47 and $64 over the next 3+ months before a breakdown in price hits in November 2019.  This will be followed by two fairly narrow price range months (December 2019 and January 2020) where oil prices will tighten near $45 to $50.  After that tightening, we believe an extremely volatile price move will happen in February through April 2020 that could see oil prices trade as low as $22 and as high as $51 over a two to three-month span."
  

============

The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.10.02 17:11

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, Brent Crude Oil and Dollar Index (DXY): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2020-10-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 1489K
• forecast data is 900K
• actual data is 661K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

• "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 661,000 in September, and the unemployment rate declined to 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In September, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in retail trade, in health care and social assistance, and in professional and business services. Employment in government declined over the month, mainly in state and local government education."

==========

EUR/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Brent Crude Oil: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.10.17 15:30

Crude Oil - daily ranging for direction; 43.52 resistance is the key with 46.59 as a target (based on the article)

• "The outlook for crude oil prices remains fragile, according to the International Energy Agency, given that "the trajectory for Covid-19 infections is strongly upwards in many countries and governments are tightening restrictions on the movements of their citizens". In its Oil Market Report for October, the Paris-based intergovernmental organization revised down its demand estimates for the third quarter of 2020 and stated that although a draw of 4 million barrels per day in inventories could be seen in the fourth quarter, this significant reduction "is happening from record high levels". This may concern crude oil buyers in light of the resumption of oil production in Libya, with the nation currently exempt from the cuts OPEC and its allies imposed in April this year and expected to produce up to 500,000 barrels a day."
• "Therefore, deteriorating global health outcomes may continue to hamper the performance of crude oil ahead of OPEC’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting on October 19."

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.10.22 09:30

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: ranging for direction

2020-10-21 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is -3.8M
• forecast data is 0.5M
• actual data is -1.0M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.0 million barrels from the previous week."

==========

Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.10.29 14:46

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/CNH and Brent Crude Oil: United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

2020-10-20 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

• past data is -31.4%
• forecast data is -37.9%
• actual data is 33.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

• "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.1 percent in the third quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4 percent."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

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Brent Crude Oil: range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.11.12 19:38

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: daily breakout with the bullish reversal; 45.27 is the key

2020-11-12 16:00 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is -8.0M
• forecast data is -2.0M
• actual data is 4.3M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.3 million barrels from the previous week."

==========

Crude Oil: range price movement by  U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Quick ZigZag plus DiNapoli - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• GMMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

• The main AscTrend thread is this one.
• Asctrend indicator in depth 
• ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
• Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread