EUR/GBP - page 11
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The Pound to Euro Exchange Rate Forecast To Fall to 1.16 Near-Term
The British Pound has fallen against the Euro on six of the last seven days confirming a growing downward bias.
A swing back to 'harder Brexit' talk and the suggestion from International Trade Minister Liam Fox of a Turkey-style interim solution which would only give the very barest bones of access to the common market may have been the source of Pound Sterling's recent bout of weakness.
Meanwhile, the bailing-out of struggling Italian lender Banco Monte die Piaschi di Sienna may have supported the Euro which has had a strong festive season, rising versus the both the Dollar and the Pound.
Concerning the outlook, GBP/EUR looks poised to break below a major trendline from the October lows which would then open the sluice gates lower.
Short on this pair, TP is 0.8510.
Pound to Euro Exchange Rate in Sharp Slump, Fast-Approaching our Forecast Target
The British Pound has extended its December sell-off on Thursday December 29 following a brief period of consolidation above the 1.17 zone.
The GBP/EUR has since fallen below this congestion zone and is fast approaching the target we said it would when we laid out our forcasts at the start of the new week and again in our mid-week technical call.
A lack of market-moving news over the Christmas period has ensured volatility in the GBP/EUR exchange rate has fallen and In such conditions traders often tend to focus on technical drivers and this allows us some cues regarding future moves.
So where exactly is our near-term target for the exchange rate in light of the extension of the December sell-off?
Our studies suggest GBP/EUR has now confirmed a break below a major trendline from the October lows which increases the chances of a continuation lower.
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GBP EUR Exchange Rate Yearly Outlook – Will The Pound To Euro Recover In 2017?
Can the GBP to EUR exchange rate stage a recovery in 2017, or is it doomed to fall to parity in the New Year?
After being on something of a roller coaster for the majority of 2016, the Pound Euro exchange rate closed out the year trending in the region of 1.16/1.17. We look at what 2017 holds for the currency pair and assess whether it has a chance of recovering the losses sustained over the past 12 months.
GBP EUR Begins 2016 at 1.36, Why did the Pound Fall?
2016 began positively enough for the Pound Euro exchange rate. While it was down from the dizzy highs of +1.40 recorded in mid-2015, its opening levels were a solid 1.36.
However, such GBP EUR strength was not destined to last and as soon as speculation surrounding the UK’s referendum on its relationship with the European Union picked up steam, the Pound began a steady decline.
Over the next few months the Pound Euro currency pair eased to 1.26 – aided on its way by unexpected twists and turns in the referendum campaign, including the surprise defection of Boris Johnson to the ‘leave’ campaign.
However, confidence that the UK would vote to remain increased in the run up to the vote and GBP EUR recovered to 1.30 by the time polling opened on June 23rd.
But 2016 turned out to be full of surprises, and as we all now know, Britain did in fact vote to leave the European Union.
The long-term ramifications for the UK are yet to be fully understood, but the short-term impact on the Pound was clear for all to see…
Short on EUR/GBP. The pair is retracing from 0.8670.
Pound to Advance on Euro in Early January as Exchange Rate Markets Open for Business
The Pound to Euro exchange rate starts the new year on the front foot with a rise to 1.1746 at the time of writing.
The gains come in shallow liquidity conditions as the big markets are only due to open on Tuesday January 2 and we therefore expect GBP/EUR to hang around this level over the coming day.
Pound Sterling has been in retreat for much of December with the highs of 1.20 being rejected and a slip back to sub-1.16 being witnessed.
The recovery to back above 1.17 however confirms the pair was uncomfortable at such low levels.
Trade remains largely technical in nature at present - particularly with regards to the Euro which strengthened through December as the ECB faded its asset purchases ahead of the new year.
The new year should see the ECB take a more agressive stance in Eurozone bond markets which could see Eurozone yields come under pressure once more, which will in turn likely weigh on the single currency.
Our studies suggest there is reason to believe GBP/EUR could be turning higher again.
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Short EUR/GBP & Fade EUR/USD Bounces Into 1.06
For the rest of the majors, we could witness some interesting price action. Politics is back in focus in the UK, which is likely to drive GBP. Indeed, the Supreme court ruling on the government’s ability to trigger Article 50 is expected early this month. The outcome is likely to increase the day-to-day wobbles in GBP and a vote in favor of the government would weigh on it in the short-term. Our indicators still favor some GBP upside on overextended positioning but prefer to express this view with short EURGBP.
The data calendar is light this week for the EUR, though the monthly PMIs and inflation data should capture some attention. The EZ composite PMI is expected to remain stable at 53.9 but the gradual recovery has yet to spark a pickup in core inflation. For its part, the December core inflation print is likely to show that core inflation remains stuck below 1.0% and likely to keep the ECB sidelined for now.
We like EUR lower and look to fade rallies ahead of 1.06.
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Our Pound to Euro Tech Forecast for 2017: Time to Recover
When it comes to foreign exchange forecasting, perspective is everything.
A currency pair looks very different depending on which timeframe it is being viewed in and it is critical to keep in mind short-term, medium-term and long-term approaches.
Indeed, the near-term prospects could well look very different to the longer-term prospects.
And because we have no idea what fundamental-based surprises will be thrown at Pound Sterling by the government and European Union in upcoming Brexit negotiations, technical analysis is arguably the cleanest way to approach the pair at this juncture.
With that in mind, Pound Sterling Live have looked at the monthly and weekly charts for GBP/EUR to get a better understanding of how the year may play out from a technical perspective.
It’s very undecided and it’s consolidating sideways, I am refraining from trading this pair for now.