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October 2016 US Empire State manufacturing index -6.80 vs 1.00 exp


October 2016 US Empire State manufacturing index report

  • New orders -5.6 vs -7.5 prior
  • Employment -4.7 vs -14.3 prior
  • Prices paid 22.6 vs 17 prior
 

Details from the September 2016 US CPI data report 18 October 2016

  • Core 2.2% vs 2.3% exp y/y
  • Real average weekly earnings 0.2% vs -0.4% prior m/m
  • 0.8% vs 0.4% prior y/y
 

September 2016 US housing starts 1.047m vs 1.175m exp


Details of the September 2016 US housing starts and building permits data report 19 October 2016

  • Building permits 1.225m vs 1.165m exp. Prior 1.152m
 

US initial jobless claims 260K vs 250K estimate

Initial jobless claims for the prior week 247 K (was 246K)

The US initial jobless claims came in at251.75 K vs. 250k estimate.  The 4-week moving average came in at K vs 249.25K last week. 
 

October Philly Fed +9.7 vs +5.0 expected


Details of the October Philly Fed Business Outlook

  • Prior was +12.8 (was the highest since Feb 2015)
  • Employment: -4.0 vs -5.3 last
  • New orders: +16.3 vs +1.4 last
  • Prices paid +7 vs +20.6 last
  • Capex index 21.2 vs 8.6 last
  • 6-month index 32.6 vs 37.5 last
 

September 2016 US existing home sales 5.47m vs 5.35m exp

Details of the September 2016 US existing home sales data report 20 October 2016

  • Prior 5.33m. Prior revised to 5.30m
  • Inventories 2.04m unch
  • Median sale price $234,200 vs $240,000 prior y/y. +5.6% vs Sep 2015
  • Distressed sales 4.0% vs 5.0% in Aug
 

Chicago Fed national activity index Sept -0.14 vs -0.13 exp


Chicago Fed  Sept national activity index 24 Oct

  • -0.72 prev revised down from -0.55

Worse than expected but better than a downward revised prev reading.

A monthly report by the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank that tracks economic activity in the 7th district, which is comprised of Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin.

A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.

More from the Chicago Fed here
 

Richmond Fed index -4 vs -4 estimate


Still negative but up from -8 last month

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing index came in as expected at -4.  This was higher than the prior month at -8 but still negative indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity in the region. 

  • Services revenue index +7 in October versus +13 and September
  • Shipments index +2 in October versus -4 in September
  • New orders -12 versus -7 last month
  • Order backlog -11 versus -20 last month
  • Capacity utilization -5 versus -11
  • Number of employees 3  versus -13
  • Average workweek -3 versus 1
  • Wages 18 versus 13
 

US MBA Mortgage Applications Fall 4.1%


The latest Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) data recorded a 4.1% decline in the week ending October 21st following a 0.6% gain the previous week.

Applications to purchase a home declined 7.0% on the week to the lowest level since January, although there was still a 9% increase from the previous year. Re-mortgage applications declined 2.0% on the week and the underlying trend is likely to be weaker over the next few months.

The MBA released its 2017 projections last week and forecast an increase in home-purchase applications of 11% for the year. There was, however, also a forecast that re-finance applications will fall sharply by 40% under the impact of higher interest rates.

Mortgage rates will continue to be watched closely in the short term with 30-year fixed rates declining to 3.71% in the latest week from 3.73% previously. Longer-term yields have, however, been creeping higher this week and there will be concerns that mortgage rates will also move higher over the next few weeks.

Sustained upward pressure on rates would provide a stern test for the housing sector, especially as there has been a decrease in the number of Americans, who think now a good time to buy a home. There is, however, also the possibility that there will be a short-term rush to lock-in deals given fears that rates will rise sharply over the next few months.

 

Markit services PMI for October 54.8 vs. 52.5 estimate


Composite index for October 54.9

The Markit US Manufacturing PMI on Monday came in stronger at 53.2 vs 51.5 est (and 51.5 last).

The services PMI is the highest since November 2015.

A year ago the services index was at the same 54.8 level.
Key facts:
  • Highest rreading since November 2015
  • Eighth consecutive month rise
  • Prices charged rises to 51.7 versus 50.7 in September.  This was the highest reading since November 2015
  • Business expectations rise versus the prior month (hhighest since August 2015)
As for the composite index:
  • index rises to 54.9 from 52.3 in September. The composite index was at 55  one year ago
  • Employment rises to 51.5 versus 51.3 in September.  This was the highest reading since August 2016
  • New orders highest since November 2015
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