USD news - page 12

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US August pending home sales -2.4% vs 0.0% m/m expected

  • Prior was +1.3% (revised to +1.2%)
  • Pending home sales +4.0% y/y vs +2.6% y/y expected
  • Prior y/y reading was -2.2% (revised to -2.4%)

There must have been a longer-term downward revision somewhere in order to produce that 4% rise in y/y sales.

 

August 2016 US core PCE 1.7% vs 1.7% exp y/y

Details from the August 2016 US PCE price data report 30 September 2016

  • Prior 1.6%
  • PCE 1.0% vs 0.8% prior y/y
 

Atlanta Fed GDP Now cut to 2.4% vs 2.8% prior

Latest GDP forecast from the Atlanta Fed

"The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is2.4 percent on September 30, down from 2.8 percent on September 28. The forecast of third-quarter real consumer spending growth declined from 3.0 percent to 2.7 percent after this morning's personal income and outlays report from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Following yesterday's GDP revision from the BEA and the Advance Economic Indicators release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter growth decreased from 0.60 percentage points to 0.26 percentage points and the forecast of the contribution from net exports increased from -0.13 percentage points to 0.13 percentage points."
 

September 2016 US Markit manufacturing PMI final 51.5 vs 51.4 exp


Details from the September 2016 US Markit manufacturing PMI final data report 3 October 2016

  • Flash 51.4. August 52.0
  • New orders 51.1 vs 52.7 prior
  • Employment 52.5 vs 50.5 prior
  • Output 52.5 vs 53.8 prior
 

September 2016 US ISM New York business conditions 49.6 vs 47.5 prior


September 2016 US ISM New York report 4 October 2016

  • Outlook 59.6 vs 65.5 prior
  • Employment 33.9 vs 54.9 prior
  • Prices paid 60.3 unch
  • Revenues 61.6 vs 51.0 prior
  • 6m expectations 56.7 vs 57.1
Despite this being a small number for the market, the big drop in employment isn't good. Neither are the forward looking indicators.
 

ADP September US employment 154K vs 165K expected


  • Lowest reading since April
  • Prior was 177K (revised to 175K)
  • Two months ago was 194K
 

The US trade balance for August -40.7B vs. -39.2B estimate


Prior month unrevised to -39.5B

The US trade balance came in worse than expected at -40.7B vs. -39.2 estimate. A larger trade defiicit is negative for GDP.

  • Imports rose 1.2% in August. In July imports fel -0.7%.
  • Exports rose +0.8% in August. In July exports rose 1.9%
  • US Goods deficit comes in at 60.2 8 billion. Services surplus is 19.5 6 billion
  • capital goods imports 50.17 billion versus 49.01 in July
 

US August factory orders +0.2% vs -0.2% m/m expected

August factory orders and revisions to durable goods

  • Prior was +1.9% m/m (revised to +1.4%)
  • Ex transport 0.0%
  • prior ex transport +0.2% (revised to -0.1%)

The downward revisions to the prior erase any positive surprise. This is a mediocre report, at best.

Durable goods orders

  • Here is the initial durable goods orders report
  • US August durable goods orders nondefense ex-air +0.9% vs +0.6% initially reported
  • Overall durable goods orders +0.1% vs 0.0% initially reported
  • Capital goods shipments nondefense ex air -0.1% vs -0.4% initially reported

There's some good news in this part of the report with higher revisions across the board.

It's all overshadowed by the excellent ISM non-manufacturing index released at the same time. The US dollar is broadly stronger.

 

US ISM Non Manufacturing Composite for September 57.1 vs. 53.0 estimate


Last month 51.4

A big jump in the Non manufacturing. This is the highest since October 2015 and the highest for the calendar year.
  • employment gauge rises by the most since 1997. It surged to 57.2 from 50.7
  • prices paid comes in a 54 versus 51.8
  • business activity at 60.3 versus 51.8
  • new orders 60.0 versus 51.4
  • backlog of orders 52.0 versus 49.5
  • supplier deliveries 51.0 versus 51.5
  • inventory change 51.5 versus 48.0
  • export orders 56.5 versus 46.5
  • imports of 51.0 versus 50.5

source

 

US initial jobless claims 249k vs 257k exp


US initial jobless claims week ending 30 September 2016

  • Prior 254k
  • Continued claims 2.058m vs 2.090m exp. Prior 2.062m
  • 4 week avg 253.5k vs 256.0k prior
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