New Brexit polls shows 'leave' side ahead, GBP falls

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Two ICM/Guardian polls

A telephone poll from ICM/Guardian shows the 'leave' side at 45% compared to 42% to 'remain' in the EU.

An online poll from the same firm shows 47% to leave and 44% to stay.

The numbers are just crossing and GBP is quickly falling.

 

EU referendum: Telegraph subscribers say they back a Brexit

More than two-thirds of subscribers to The Daily Telegraph will vote for Britain to leave the European Union, according to a survey.

A survey of nearly 19,000 subscribers found that 69 per cent are intending to back a Brexit at the June 23 referendum.

Those surveyed also overwhelmingly back Boris Johnson to become the next leader of the Conservative Party, with 42 per cent saying they would “prefer” him to succeed David Cameron.

Michael Gove, the Justice Secretary who is backing a Brexit, is in second place on 16 per cent of the vote, with Theresa May in third place on 13 per cent of the vote.

 

You couldn't make it up - Brexit edition

If you're a Brit in Germany and want to vote on the EU referendum, you might have been scuppered by EU regulations

The Brexit farce has reached new lows.

It's been reported that because the EU have not managed to regulate what size a standard letter should be across Europe, over 100,000 Brits in Germany may not get their voting letters due to the Germans having a different measurement for standard letters.

The vote notices have been sent from the UK in pre-paid envelopes valid under the Internal Business Reply Service (recognised internationally) but because the size is not standard in Germany many have been held up for additional postage charges.

The Guardian writes that;

"Some post offices in Germany have informed British citizens that they could not accept the A5 envelopes sent out on the IBRS scheme since they did not comply with the German definition of a standard letter, namely no larger than 90x140mm in size and weighing no more than 50g. Royal Mail, by contrast, classifies A5 envelopes as standard letters."

And that's not all. According to other reports, there are many EU citizens who have been sent polling cards, even though they are ineligible to vote. This has included Poles and a Swede with a German passport who actually went on to vote.

 

Brexit vote is a significant factor in FOMC decision this month

So say the majority economists in the latest Reuters poll
  • 5% see a June hike
  • 40% see a July hike
  • Around 65% see a Sep hike
  • See core CPI at 1.7% in 2016, 1.8% 2017, unchanged vs prior poll
  • GDP is knocked higher to 2.3% for Q2 and 2.4% for Q3 & Q4 vs 2.2%, 2.5% & 2.4% prior
 

Betfair reduce EU referendum Remain probability to 70%


UK bookmaker listening to the opinion polls 11 June 2016

  • previous implied volatility 78%

The move comes after yesterday's ORB poll for The Independent newspaper that Greg reported here showing the Leave vote ahead on 55% vs Remain 45% .

The Pound tumbled again confirming my preference and recommendation to play from the short side, and as I warned previously the Leave campaigners appear to be timing their run to the line well with the Undecideds still holding the balance of power.

Brexit fever everywhere here at the moment even at Lord's yesterday where I was back watching the cricket. You may have seen my tweet from @MSPFX which Ryan re-tweeted.

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