GBP/USD forecast - page 33
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UK's British Pound Jumps vs Dollar and Euro as Government Shows Hand on Single Market Access
Senior Cabinet ministers have on Thursday confirmed retaining full access to the European single market will be a priority on the British side of the Brexit negotiation table - this was welcome news to Pound Sterling bulls.
The British Pound leapt higher on Thursday, December 1 on comments made by senior Cabinet ministers that the UK would jostle for full access to the European single market in upcoming Brexit negotiations.
Finally, the Government gave markets a peek of the cards they were holding.
Brexit Secretary David Davis said the Government is prepared to consider paying for the UK to access the European single market.
This will do a huge amount to alay concerns amongst UK businesses as to what kind of trading relationship they could expect once Brexit is done.
Since October we have seen Sterling make notable moves higher each time the prospect of continued access to the EU single market becomes more assured.
Davis told MPs that ministers want to "get the best possible access for goods and services to the European market".
During questions in the House of Commons, Labour MP Wayne David asked if the Brexit secretary would “consider making any contribution in any shape or form for access to the single market”.
Davis responded, “the major criterion here is that we get the best possible access for goods and services to the European market. And if that is included in what he is talking about, then of course we would consider it.”
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British Pound to Euro Forecast - Is Best GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Likely After Italy Referendum, Supreme Court Brexit Hearing?
Foreign exchange investors saw the British pound to euro exchange rate climb to near the best multi-month conversion in anticipation of the impending Italian Referendum and UK Supreme Court hearing on Article 50 appeal. We examine the latest euro-related fx forecasts targeting the sterling and the US dollar in the short, medium and long-term GBP/EUR forex outlooks
Foreign currency investors have welcomed the recent rise in the GBP/EUR rate to near best levels in over 12 weeks.
Speculation over the future of the UK economy outside the EU has continued to dominate the outlook of Pound Sterling (GBP) in recent days, with hopes of a softer form of Brexit rising.
Commentary from Brexit Secretary David Davis suggested that the UK could pay to maintain its current level of access to the single market, a prospect that greatly encouraged confidence in the Pound.
Further volatility for the Pound Sterling Euro (GBP EUR) exchange rate is likely in response to the start of the government’s appeal to the Supreme Court on whether Parliament has a right to vote on the triggering of Article 50.
British Pound To Dollar Rate Outlook: High Hopes Of GBP/USD Advance On Services PMI And Trade Stats
GBP/USD Advance Recorded Last Week on Renewed Brexit Hopes
GBP/USD was able to advance strongly over the course of Thursday and Friday last week, on account of Brexit Secretary David Davis.
Commenting on how the UK’s relationship with the EU might function after Brexit, Davis said that the UK may be able to continue to hold single market access, via payments to the EU.
Additional support was offered to Sterling by Friday’s November construction PMI, which rose as expected from 52.6 to 52.8.
British Pound (GBP) Gains May Follow Services Stats
This week will open with the November services PMI on Monday, which is currently expected to rise from 54.5 points to 54.7.
Given the importance of the UK’s services sector, this outcome is expected to boost demand for Sterling considerably.
Wednesday is expected to see UK’s October manufacturing and industrial production results announced, alongside a National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) GDP estimate.
On the year, production is set to rise, although a less supportive drop in GDP has been predicted from 0.4% to 0.3%.
Ending the week’s UK economic announcements will be Friday’s October trade balance, which have a deficit reduction on the cards.
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Bearish gap remains, but the pair recovered back to 1.267 level.
British Pound Strength vs Euro, US Dollar Unlikely to Last Beyond Year-End
Pound Sterling's steady recovery off the October lows is unlikely to extend into the new year we are told by a leading technical analyst.
The British Pound’s Effective Exchange Rate bottomed out at 73.70 in October amidst fears the Government was seeking a clean break from the European Union in what is known as a hard-Brexit.
The Effective Exchange Rate has since recoverd towards 78.81 as the Pound recovered against the Euro, Dollar and other major currencies.
The Effective Exchange Rate is a measure of Sterling’s value against a basket of its most important counterparts based on trade and is therefore a good gauge as to the currency's overall health.
The US Dollar and Euro are understandably the largest constituents of the basket owing to the UK's large trading links with Europe and the United States.
The recovery in Sterling come as the hard-Brexit story gives way to suggestions the UK government could push for a continued membership of the European Union’s single market, even if that access is paid for.
Sterling remains a currency largely driven by sentiment at present and this is certainly likely to be the case over the next year as the UK finally starts to hammer out its future relationship with the EU.
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British Pound Strength Against Euro & US Dollar Forecast to Stall in Early 2017
Pound Sterling's multi-week recovery is forecast to reverse early in the new year we are told by a leading technical analyst.
GBP trades with a positive bias on Tuesday December 6 as the short-squeeze higher in the Euro that defined the markets following the Italian refernendum fades and allows the UK currency to maintain its trend of appreciation, in place since October.
Pound Sterling remains near the top of a multi-week uptrend that has resulted from five consecutive weeks of gains against the Euro and three consecutive weeks of gains against the Dollar.
As a result, the British Pound’s Effective Exchange Rate has meanwhile recoverd towards 78.81. The Effective Exchange Rate is a measure of Sterling’s value against a basket of its most important counterparts based on trade and is therefore a good gauge as to the currency's overall health.
The Effective Exchange Rate bottomed out at 73.70 in October amidst fears the Government was seeking a clean break from the European Union in what is known as a hard-Brexit.
The US Dollar and Euro are understandably the largest constituents of the basket owing to the UK's large trading links with Europe and the United States.
The recovery in Sterling come as the hard-Brexit story gives way to suggestions the UK government could push for a continued membership of the European Union’s single market, even if that access is paid for.
Sterling remains a currency largely driven by sentiment at present and this is certainly likely to be the case over the next year as the UK finally starts to hammer out its future relationship with the EU.
With that in mind, the next big thing for Sterling could well be the ruling of the Supreme Court concerning the Government's ability to trigger Article 50 before March 2017 without the scrutiny of Parliament.
The court case started on Monday 5 December but a ruling is only likely in mid-January - if the Government wins then we would expect the UK currency to slip sharply lower as markets like the idea of the process being made more transparent by Parliament.
"The supreme court case is expected to continue until January, during which time the pound could potentially see a lot of movement," says Paresh Davdra at foreign exchange brokerage RationalFX in London. "However, with the ruling of the high court earlier in the year against the government, it seems likely that the pound will continue to see rises if the supreme court decision appears to favour the argument for Parliamentary scrutiny."
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GBP/USD: Higher Highs & Higher Lows For 4th Session In A Row; What's Next?
GBPUSD continues to record higher highs and higher lows on the day for the fourth session in a row.
UK Prime Minister May has agreed to a Labour Party motion calling for release of more details on the government’s Brexit plans provided the motion were amended to call for the government to invoke Article 50 by March 31.
The House of Commons was set to debate the motion on Wednesday and the Speaker will decide whether to accept the amendment for debate as well according to Bloomberg. Passage of the motion with the amendment might be viewed as diminishing the significance of the ongoing Supreme Court case since there would be agreement that Article 50 would be invoked in Q1 2017. Any diluting of May’s “hard” Brexit stance will continue to push GBP higher from its undervalued level vs both EUR & USD.
We see scope for the GBP to extend its recent short covering gains from very cheap levels.
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