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Funny look at Friday NFP
Hi guys, after Friday nonfarm payrolls we've put together something for fun - check out this video
It should be watch with good sound, though, and it's not for guys with heart diseases 
Did it become viral?
Did it become viral?
Nfp did get viral
:):)
Preview: US October Jobs Report Next Friday - BofA Merrill In the upcoming October jobs report next Friday, Bank of America Merrill Lynch anticipates nonfarm payroll growth will improve to 150,000 after averaging 139,000 over the prior two months.
"There should be weakness in the manufacturing industry, as evidenced by the early regional surveys, and mining jobs likely continued to contract amid low energy prices. On the upside, construction and service jobs should show further growth owing to healthy housing and consumer demand supporting these sectors. There have been consistently strong gains in government payrolls over the last four months heading into the new school year, so we may see some payback this month leading to a drag on overall nonfarm payrolls.
In terms of revisions, we have previously found that there is a tendency for September and August payrolls to be revised higher. Thus, the risk is that we see a stronger trend in the 3-month moving average. While we get another month of good job gains, the unemployment rate should remain unchanged at 5.1%. We believe the labor force participation may see a modest bounce after declining 0.2pp to 62.4% in September, which will result in some upside pressure. With unemployment still above NAIRU, average hourly earnings should grow a trend-like 0.2% mom. This should leave the yoy rate unchanged at 2.2% but rounding could push it up to 2.3%," BofA projects.
Preview: US Jobs Report On Friday - Nomura In October, incoming data on labor markets have been mixed, and again are not suggestive of a rebound to an above-200k gain in payrolls, notes Nomura.
On balance, we forecast that private payrolls added a net new 140k workers, with a 15k increase in government workers, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 155k jobs in October.
We forecast that manufacturing payrolls declined by 10k in October, as the employment subindex in many regional manufacturing surveys remained negative in the month.
With continuing jobless claims falling further in October, we expect the unemployment rate to fall by 0.1pp to 5.0%.
Last, we expect average hourly earnings to rebound in October to 0.3% m-o-m growth as earnings were flat in September (likely held down to some extent by a calendar quirk)," Nomura projects.
October 2015 US ADP employment report 182k vs 180k exp Details of the October 2015 US ADP employment data report 4 November 2015
source
Why all the hassle if you do pending orders on both sides?
Goldman Sachs sees 184K, and raises to 190K They were at 175K. What is your GUESS?
US Non Farm Payrolls will be released at 8:30 AM tomorrow with the median estimate at 184K, and the average estimate at 183K according to Bloomberg's estimates from 92 economists. The low estimate is 75K. The high estimate is 250K .
Goldman Sach's was at 175K. They have moved up to 190K - choosing to be on the higher side of the range vs the lower side.
Of course, with 300+ million people in the US, give or take 50K can easily happen. Add the thought - expressed by Fed officials and others - that as the employment situation get's tighter, the growth in NFP comes down, it makes what is good, great and bad more difficult to interpret.
For example, in 2014 the average job gain was 260K. The gain in 2013 was 199K. This calendar year, the average job gain is 198K and coming down. However, the average unemployment rate is also moving steadily down. At the beginning of the year, the US Unemployment rate was 5.7%. The current rate is 5.1% (was 5.1% in August and September). The average for 2015 is 5.4%. In 2014, the average was 6.1% and 2013, it was 7.4%. So there is something to the argument, and the interpretation.
All of which points toward, knowing what the market is expecting, knowing your technical levels and trading those levels given your bullish or bearish scenarios. For example, if 183K is expected, greater than 200K is Fed tightening, while <160k is not so great. Then know the tech levels for each scenario.
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