All in all you are right except for one thing : it is becoming clear that FED already reduced the forecast for rate hike (from 3 rate hikes this year to two) and delayed the first one. That means what Bernanke told : there will be no meaningful FED rate hike - i.e USD will continue falling
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EURUSD: Biased To The Upside On Correction
EURUSD: With EUR closing higher on a recovery the past week it looks to strengthen further in the new week. However, we may see a mild pullback before it could push higher again. Support is seen at 1.0750 level with a cut through here opening the door for more downside towards the 1.0700 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.0600 level where a break will expose the 1.0550 level. On the upside, resistance lies at the 1.0900 level where a violation will aim at the 1.0950 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.0000 level, its psycho level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.1000 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.1041 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the medium.