Technical and Market Analysis by Vistabrokers - page 30
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Vista Brokers: European Stock Markets Decline
On Monday, volatility in stock markets is increased. Vista Brokers analysts note that financial market participants expect that Greece will become the first country to come out of the euro zone. The talks with the country's international creditors, which continued over the weekend, did not produce results - the situation is aggravated with every passing day.
Today the European Central Bank has announced that it would stop supplying liquidity to Greek banks, forcing Athens to close banks to avoid a collapse. The international payment system Western Union has closed its Greek branch at least until the end of the week, prohibiting the movement of funds both in the country and out of it. On July 5 the country will hold a referendum that will show the population's attitude to international creditors' demands. Until that time, probably the country's financial system will be paralyzed.
Also note that the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker said he expects that there will be 19 members in the euro zone. So, the current scenario causes investors to lose their last hopes that at the last moment lenders temper justice with mercy and save Greece. Tomorrow Athens must pay 1.6 billion euros to the International Monetary Fund and the refusal of the payment will be considered as a default.
On Monday, the blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 has shown the greatest day decline since 2011. The yield on German 10-year bonds today has fallen by 12.93% to the lowest level since June 3 - 0.707%. The yield on Greek bonds has jumped by 33.74% to the highest level since December 2012 - 14.54%. Also the yield of government bonds in Italy, Spain and Portugal has risen. The German Dax stock index has fallen by 3.8%, the French CAC 40 – by 3.9%, the British FTSE – by 2%, the Italian and Spanish markets have dropped by an average 4%.
Market Pulse 06/30
Tuesday is more or less full of important publications, many of which the market will ignore because of Greece. Interesting statistics will be released in the UK, Canada, USA, New Zealand.
1:00 ** ANZ Business Confidence - June (New Zealand)
*** Global Dairy Trade Price Index - June (New Zealand)
Strong impact on the market (NZD). The source does not indicate the exact time of publication. The global diary trade price index reflects changes in prices of dairy products. These products make up a significant proportion of New Zealand's exports, so the dynamics of their prices directly affects the NZD.
7:00 ** KOF Economic Barometer - June (Switzerland)
Moderate impact on the market (CHF). The index takes into consideration 219 variables. The growth is favorable for the currency.
07:55 ** Unemployment Change - June (Germany)
7:55 ** Unemployment Rate - June (Germany)
7:55 ** Unemployment Data Released by Federal Labor Agency - June (Germany)
Moderate impact on the market (EUR). It is expected that the number of unemployed in Germany in the reporting period has decreased by 5,000 and the unemployment rate remained unchanged - 6.4%.
8:30 *** Current Account - Q1 (UK)
8:30 ** Final GDP - Q1 (UK)
Strong impact on the market (GPB). The balance of payments includes the results of the movement of goods and services as well as capital inflows and outflows. The growth or the forecast exceeding is favorable for the currency.
8:40 *** RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks - June (Australia)
Strong impact on the market (AUD). Comments of Stevens as the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia may seriously affect the Australian dollar, especially if diverge significantly from market expectations.
9:00 ** Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate - June (euro zone)
9:00 ** Flash Core CPI - June (euro zone)
9:00 ** Unemployment Rate - June (euro zone)
Moderate impact on the market (EUR). It is expected that the consumer price index in June in the euro zone has risen by 0.2%. The indicator is taken into account in the monetary policy of the ECB, as well as the unemployment rate. It is expected that in June the rate will remain the same.
12:30 *** GDP - April (Canada)
Strong impact on the market (CAD). The indicator reflects the GDP growth during the previous month. The most comprehensive indicator of the economy. The increase or acceleration of growth are favorable for the currency.
13:45 ** Chicago PMI - June (USA)
14:00 *** CB Consumer Confidence - June (USA)
Strong impact on the market (USD). Expectations for both indicators are optimistic. Analysts predict that the index of purchasing managers in Chicago in June rose, as well as the indicator of consumer confidence.
Vista Brokers: Euro Rose after SNB Intervention
On Monday, the single currency has rebounded sharply from reached lows and started an upward movement against the US dollar and other competitors in the foreign exchange market. Vista Brokersanalysts note that the driver for growth was the intervention of the Swiss National Bank. The euro continued to rise despite the fact that the crisis in Greece continues to worsen.
Recall that after the weekend international creditors has not approved the reform plan, provided by Athens, the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced that on July 5 in the country will be held a referendum. From today, the country's banks do not operate - the government was forced to close access to deposits, to avoid the shock of their mass withdrawal. Theoretically, the European Central Bank continues to provide liquidity to Greek banks, but in fact the country's financial system is paralyzed before the referendum. Amid the Greek crisis worsening, European stock markets were down on Monday, while the yield on bonds of the euro zone countries has grown.
The single currency was prevented from a new round of falling with the fact that on Monday morning the head of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan said that the central bank has taken intervention to weaken the franc against the euro.
Recently, due to the Greek crisis, market participants actually ignore the statistics. However, recall that the data on pending home sales in the US has showed an increase in May to a maximum of 2006.
Vista Brokers: Oil Drops amid Default in Greece
On Tuesday, oil futures are traded at three-week lows. VistaBrokers analysts point out that the pressure on the "black gold" has a culmination of the situation in Greece, which has brought uncertainty and excitement into all financial markets. Also, oil traders are awaiting the outcome of talks on Iran's nuclear program and the recent data on crude oil stockpiles in the United States.
At the beginning of the European trading session on Tuesday on ICE Futures Exchange in London, August Brent futures have risen by 0.08% to $ 62.05 per barrel. Yesterday, these futures have reached the lowest level since June 5 at $ 61.35 before ending the day at $ 62.01 per barrel (-1.98%).
Crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange have lost 0.2%, dropping to $ 58.22 per barrel. A day before futures also have touched the lowest level since June 5 - $ 58.33 per barrel (-2.18%). The spread between Brent and WTI consists $ 3.83 per barrel compared with $ 3.68 at the close of trading on Monday.
Greece's default and the possible exit from the euro zone casts doubt on the very existence of the euro zone, the stability of its currency, the existence of a system of international loans and so on. The state of the banking system of the country is now very difficult. The population has no access to their deposits - financial institutions are closed, international payment systems do not work, the European Central Bank has stopped supplying liquidity.
Recall that the period within which Athens had to pay 1.6 billion euros to the International Monetary Fund, expires today, but the agreement with the "troika" of creditors (ECB, EU and IMF) to resume the program of assistance has not been achieved. A technical default in Greece has already come, but the situation may change after the referendum, which will be held in the country on July 5. If the Greeks decide that it is better to accept the claims of creditors to resume funding, negotiations will continue. If the majority vote against, the more likely the country will leave the euro zone.
Vista Brokers: Sentiment in US Stock Market Has Improved
On Tuesday, Dow and S & P 500 futures have risen, rebounding from lows of October 2014, reached on the eve amid the crisis in Greece. Vista Brokersanalysts say that sentiment in the US stock market has changed - investors are hoping that in the last few hours that remain before the default of Greece, international lenders will take some action to save the situation.
Recall that today Athens must pay the International Monetary Fund 1.6 billion euros, and earlier the Greek authorities stated that they have no funds for payment. Nevertheless, the Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras refused to accept a proposal of creditors to continue financing in exchange for the continuation of tough reforms.
The S & P 500 e-minis has risen by 9.25 points or 0.45%, Nasdaq 100 e-minis – by 14 points or 0.32%, Dow e-minis - by 62 points or 0.35%.
Market Pulse 07/01
On Wednesday, many countries will publish manufacturing PMI data. The greatest attention of traders can attract such indicators as ADP non-farm employment change and the ISM manufacturing PMI.
1:00 *** Manufacturing PMI - June (China)
1:00 ** Non-Manufacturing PMI - June (China)
Strong impact on the market. Statistics from China often affects Australian and Canadian currencies, as well as the commodities market, as China is the largest consumer of various natural resources. It is expected that the index of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector has risen in June.
1:30 *** Building Approvals - May (Australia)
Strong impact on the market (AUD). Building approvals changing. Stronger data in comparison with the previous one or the forecast are favorable for the currency.
7:15 ** Manufacturing PMI - June (Spain)
7:45 ** Manufacturing PMI - June (Italy)
7:50 ** Manufacturing PMI - June (France)
7:55 ** Manufacturing PMI - June (Germany)
8:00 ** Manufacturing PMI - June (euro zone)
Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Forecasts for these indexes are not too optimistic - analysts expect the decline (Spain, Italy), or the same level (France, Germany, the euro zone).
8:30 *** Manufacturing PMI - June (UK)
9:30 *** Bank of England Governor Mark Carney Speaks - July (UK)
9:30 ** Bank of England Financial Stability Report - July (UK)
Strong impact on the market (GPB). These may strongly affect the dynamics of the pound. It is expected that the purchasing managers' index in June has risen. At the moment, it is above the level of 50 that is considered to be development. The driving force for the British currency could be comments Mark Carney, from which traders make conclusions about the future strategy of the Bank of England.
12:15 *** ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - June (USA)
14:00 *** ISM Manufacturing PMI - June (USA)
Strong impact on the market (USD). Analysts' forecasts for these two important indicators are optimistic. Positive data could push the dollar to rise, as would support expectations of the Fed's rate hike.
Vista Brokers: Greece Requested New Bailout Program
On Tuesday, the euro was declining against the dollar and other major currencies in Forex amid a crisis in Greece. Vista Brokersanalysts say that a few hours before the announcement of default (due to failure to pay the International Monetary Fund), Athens has asked the European Stability Mechanism a request for a new program of financial assistance for the next two years.
Without external support the country will come to a financial catastrophe - Athens is unable to pay its numerous debts. But financial markets are more concerned with the way in which it will affect the stability of the euro zone and the single currency. The so-called "Greek saga" is far from the final - on Saturday, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has announced that next Sunday, the country will hold a referendum on the implementation of international lenders' requirements.
In contrast to the euro zone, the situation in the US economy continues to improve, and this is reflected in the index of consumer confidence from the Conference Board, released yesterday. In June, the figure rose from 95.6 to 101.4 against 97.1. In contrast, the Chicago PMI index, published a little earlier, was weaker than expected: 49.4 vs. 50.2 after 46.2 in the previous month.
Vista Brokers: Asian Stocks Rose after Japanese Statistics
Shares in the Asian region shave tarted the first day of the month with a rally - during the Asian trading session, the major indexes were risen. Vista Brokersanalysts note that investors were inspired by data published early in the morning in Japan, most of which were positive.
Japan's Nikkei 225 has increased today during the regional trading by 0.22%, Shanghai Composite - by 0.30%, S & P / ASX 200 – by 0.66% and the Hang Seng index - by 1.09%.
So, on the night from Tuesday to Wednesday were published Tankan indexes, reflecting the situation in the industrial sector of Japan in Q2. The Tankan manufacturing index was better than expected: 15 against 12. The large manufacturers outlook index for the 3rd quarter also exceeded the expectations: 16 against 14. A number of other, less important indices were weaker than expected. Early in the morning on Wednesday was released data on the PMI index for the manufacturing of Japan in June, which has increased from 49.9 to 50.1, while analysts had expected the index to remain at the same level.
Vista Brokers: Greek Saga Continues
The situation in Greece continues to have a significant impact on all financial markets. Vista Brokersanalysts say that on Wednesday it became known that Athens had agreed on almost all the conditions of international creditors. The Financial Times has published information according to which the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was ready to accept a reform plan with only minor changes. This gives hope that the "troika" will approve a new program of financial aid, which Greece had requested on Tuesday, a few hours before a technical default (non-payment of 1.6 billion euros to IMF).
European stock market and bonds of peripheral euro zone countries reacted to the news with the growth. Thus, FTSEurofirst 300 index has increased by 1.5%, while the Euro STOXX - by 2.1%. The yield on German 10-year bonds has risen by 4.3 basis points to a day high of 0.82%. The yield on similar bonds of Spain, Italy and Portugal have declined by an average of 7 basis points to 2.22%, 2.25% and 2.90% respectively.
Meanwhile, the euro continues to fall against the dollar and other competitors. At the time of writing it is at $ 1.1105. The decline was aggravated after the International Monetary Fund officially declared that Greece had failed to make payment, so now it is included in the list of debtors and will not receive funding until paying off the debt. Thus, Greece became the first developed country in the list of debtors IMF, where previously were only non-developed countries, such as Zimbabwe.
Hope for a new loan for Athens still exists - as mentioned above, the country has requested a new bailout program and debt restructuring, but did it too late, so that the payment of the IMF has turned out to be expired. On Sunday the country will hold a referendum, after which, perhaps, the negotiations will continue. In any case, Greece - is a constant source of inconvenience in financial markets since the crisis situation casts doubt on the stability of the euro zone and its currency.
Market Pulse 02.07
On Thursday, a lot of important statistics will be published during the US trading session. Data will attract investors' attention - all statistics published in the United States has an impact on terms in which the market expects the Fed's interest rate hike.
1:30 *** Trade Balance - May (Australia)
Strong impact on the market (AUD). The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports for the period. Positive values are favorable for the currency.
8:30 *** Construction PMI - June (UK)
Strong impact on the market (GPB). The index of purchasing managers in the construction. It shows an improvement or deterioration in the previous month. The situation in the construction sector in Britain is closely monitored, so the publication affect markets.
11:30 ** ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts - June (euro zone)
Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The report is published in 4 weeks after the meeting of the ECB monetary policy. It contains speeches of the Governing Council members.
12:30 *** Unemployment Rate - June (USA)
12:30 *** Non-Farm Employment Change - June (USA)
12:30 *** Unemployment Claims - June (USA)
12:30 ** Counting Claims - June (USA)
12:30 ** Change in Private Payrolls - June (USA)
12:30 ** Change in Manufacturing Payrolls - June (USA)
12:30 ** Average Hourly Earnings - June (USA)
12:30 ** Participation Rate - June (USA)
12:30 ** Two-Month Payroll Net Revision - June (USA)
Strong impact on the market (USD). The US trading session will be very volatile, as the data on the labor market are one of the main targets for the Fed. Note that experts expect a decline in the unemployment rate and the unemployment claims number. Forecasts for not all indicators are optimistic, but if most of data are positive, it could support the dollar.
13:30 ** RBC Manufacturing PMI - June (Canada)
Moderate impact on the market (CAD). The index of purchasing managers in manufacturing. Shows improvement (> 50) or degradation (<50) of the situation in comparison with the previous month. The rate growth or the forecast exceeding are favorable for the currency.
15:10 ** ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks - July (euro zone)
Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Draghi comments can give hints of further actions of the ECB and the sentiment in the central bank's management, so they are important for the market.