Technical and Market Analysis by Vistabrokers - page 37
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Vista Brokers: EUR / USD Update Lows
On Thursday, the euro was mainly declining against the US dollar, although as Vista Brokers analysts say, fundamental background for the major currency pair was saturated and mixed. The trading day began with the news that the Greek parliament had passed the first bills, which the Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his team agreed with creditors. It would seem that it is positive information for the euro, but it has forced investors to focus on the problem that Tsipras has ceased to enjoy the support of his party, which puts his premiership into question.
Given that the situation in Greece is more or less stabilized, and it became clear that the country will receive, at least, the first tranche, has returned the market to the subject of Fed's interest rate hike. The Fed's head Janet Yellen has reiterated in her yesterday's speech, that the US central bank is going to raise the rate this year. She noted, again, that the regulator will monitor statistics, which should show a stable economic recovery.
Yesterday's weekly data on the number of initial applications for unemployment insurance in the United States, has showed a further decline by 15 000; the number of counting claims also fell more than expected. Thus the Philly Fed manufacturing index has fallen to 4-month low of 5.7, while analysts had expected a decline to only 11.9.
Among important events of Thursday, should be noted also a press conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi, who reiterated that the European Central Bank is going to use the program of quantitative easing in the previously announced volume. Amid this the euro has fallen against the dollar to a 7-week low.
USD / CAD. Bulls Try to Consolidate Success
The pair's growth is currently capped at 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the May growth wave. Meanwhile prospects of rising momentum remain. Today we expect important publications on the situation with the rate of inflation in the United States and Canada, which market players prefer not to underestimate (that is why many of them are still “sitting on the fence”). The Bank of Canada interest rate cut (and the possibility of further lowerimg) on the one hand,and expectations of monetary tightening by the Fed on the other hand have to find their fundamental basis in today's data.
Vista Brokers analysts point that the baseline scenario intends holding of long positions. The nearest resistance level is a 2009 high (1.3063). The strategic target is the correctional level of 61.8% of the wave of decline in the period 2001-2007 at 1.3460.
Volatility: 70%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate
GOLD. Risks Move towards Further Decline
Loss of interest in buying gold amid the positive result of situations with Greece and Iran, led yellow metal quotes to the lowest level in the past eight months. A break of this support would be a catalyst for the acceleration of the current wave of decline.
It is recommended to enter into short positions on the day closing below $1142 per ounce. The target is the level of 1131, the breakdown of which, in turn, opens the way to achieve multi-year lows. In turn, this could cause really large-scale sales of the metal.
Volatility: 27%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD
During the last 24 hours a floating result on the relevant short position from 1159.97 has not changed much. There is no additional signals to sale. Today the US will publish some interesting statistics regarding the situation with inflation in the country, so as Vista Brokers analysts note, the US trading session could prove to be very active in terms of trading.
Volatility: 27%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY
The long position from 122.87 is still relevant. On the AC we have the additional signal "3 green bar above zero". The value of the Alligator's teeth has moved to 123.59.
Volatility: 72%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams:EUR/USD
We continue to hold the sell position with no additional signals during the last day. The red Alligator's line has moved to the positive zone a little more (1.0962).
Volatility: 53%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams:GBP/USD
There is almost no result on the long position from 1.5589 amid sideways trading. Meanwhile, we are ready to quickly fix this resulton an appropriate System signal.
Volatility: 46%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Pulse 07/20
On Monday, the economic calendar is almost empty, so the market volatility will unlikely be high. Vista Brokers analysts note that Japan this day celebrates the Marine Day, and the market does not work.
6:00 * Producer Price Index - June (Germany)
Weak impact on the market (EUR). Monthly change in PPI. It may be an early signal of inflation trends change or their confirmation.
8:00 * Euro-Zone Current Account - May (euro zone)
Weak impact on the market (EUR). The balance of payments includes the movement of goods and services as well as capital inflows and outflows. The growth of the rate or forecast exceeding are favorable for the euro.
8:30 ** Public Sector Net Borrowing - June (UK)
8:30 * Public Sector Net Borrowing ex Banking Groups - June (UK)
8:30 * Public Finances - June (UK)
8:30 * Central Government NCR - June (UK)
Moderate impact on the market (GPB). Net borrowing shows the difference between expenses and income of the central and local governments and government agencies. Costs rising is negative for the currency.
12:30 ** Wholesale Sales - May (Canada)
Moderate impact on the market (CAD). Changes in sales in wholesale stores is a good leading indicator of activity since later this will affect consumer and / or industrial activity.
Vista Brokers: Fundamental Background Supported Dollar
On Friday, the dollar has increased to the highest in the last month and a half level relative to other major currencies. Vista Brokers analysts say that the American currency was supported with fresh statistics from the USA, which gave another argument to expect the Fed's rate hike in the near future. Recall that the head of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen has recently confirmed that the rate will be increased this year, but only if the statistics satisfy the regulator.
Over the past week data were multi-directional, but in general, the situation in the US economy looks optimistic, especially when compared with the euro area with its debt crisis and a slowing Chinese economy. On Friday was published data on changes in the consumer price index, and as forecasts had predicted, in June the index rose by 0.3% mom and by 0.1% yoy.
Also note that the data on the real estate market, namely building permits and housing starts in the United States came out much better than expected. A fly in the ointment was only the index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, which in July has dropped from 96.1 to 93.3 vs. 96.0. Nevertheless, the dollar index has increased by 0.20% to 97.97 (maximum from June 2). The EUR / USD has finished the day at around 1.08287.
EUR / USD. Bear
s
Prepare
for
N
ew
C
hallenges
During the last week t
he US dollar has significantly strengthened its position against the European currency. Thus, investors preferred to increase purchases of
the
currency
amid
fairly aggressive statements of Fed
's head
Yellen and upbeat statistics
from
the US
A
. At the moment, the pair
has
reached
the
important support level (
3
months
low
), and here can determine
a
vector of trading
for
coming days and even weeks.
Today, in the absence of
important
statistical releases, the technical
picture will draw more attention
. Thus, in t
he
case of
the above mentioned support level breakthrough at
1.0820,
a
down
ward
momentum could accelerate, and t
he
twelve-year minimum
set in March
(1.0460)
can become a target for
short positions.
Volatility: 43%
Trend:
b
earish
Fundamental background:
l
ow
GOLD.
G
enerosity
without Example
Today's gold sales look truly epic even a
fter the already large-scale
quotes
reduction due to the breakthrough
of
technical support levels we have mentioned in previous reviews. The effect of the mass stop orders execution below $ 1,140
per
ounce,
has given a downward momentum so strong
acceleration, that today investors witnessed the achievement of the 1064 level. So, today gold
has lost
about 6.5%.
Vista Brokers analysts note, that
events
are developing
so rapidly that a large part of the
decline
has
already been neutralized
from the recent months downward channel
line.
It is recommended to
hold
short positions opened on
a
1140
level
breakthrough
and be ready to add volume
using r
etracements.
Volatility: 23%
Trend:
b
earish
Fundamental background:
l
ow
Vista Brokers: Quiet Trading, Strong Dollar
On Monday trading was quiet and the US dollar remained at 3-months highs vs. its major competitors in Forex. Vista Brokers analysts note that the US currency continues to receive the tremendous support from the maturing market confidence that the Fed will raise the interest rate in the near future. In the new data absence traders in EUR/USD continued to take a lead from statistics published on Friday, and in particular, data on inflation in the USA.
Read full daily analysis at Fundamental analysis of Vista Brokers
Vista Brokers: RBA and BOJ still Bear up for Monetary Easing
Asian stock market is rising after minutes publication in Japan and Australia. The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan both have shown that they bear up for a policy of monetary easing at their last meetings. Amid this the main Japanese Nikkei index has added 0.55% and the S & P / ASX - 0.29%. Meanwhile, China's Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng have gained 0.26% and 0.39% respectively. Just published at Fundamental Analysis of Vista Brokers .
EUR / USD. Bears Are Waiting for Motive
The important support level we have mentioned in our previous review of (3-month low) stood out on Monday.
Nevertheless, consolidation can be explained by purely technical factors, so we must not relax yet. Discover more at Technical Analysis of Vista Brokers
GOLD. Things are Moving
Gold has rebounded from the downtrend resistance line.
Are there any reasons to buy now? And what do trading experts recommend to do? Find out atTechnical Analysis of Vista Brokers