Technical and Market Analysis by Vistabrokers - page 27
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Vista Brokers: Greece is on the Verge of Default
Vista Brokersanalysts note that on Friday, the euro was mostly falling against the US dollar amid growing fears over a default by Greece. Although at the end of the last week the position of the US currency was still weakened - the dollar has fallen against the single currency and the Japanese yen due to shifting of the Fed rate hike expectations. The EUR / USD has fallen on Friday by 0.09% to 1.1352, dropping throughout the day to 1.1293.
The single currency remains under the pressure as Greece for many months can not enter into an agreement with international creditors (EU, ECB and IMF), that is why it has no access to external financial assistance. Until June 30, Athens must implement the next payment to the International Monetary Fund, and if for the next week, the agreement is not reached, Greece will have to default. Such a scenario may lead to the country's exit from the euro zone.
There is another thing to do - Greece may get access to 7.2 billion euros of financial assistance, but it happens only if creditors will agree with conditions, in particular, spending reducing and providing of a budget reform plan that will satisfy the "troika".
GBP / USD. Semi-Annual Highs are More to Come
The "cable" continues its triumphant ascension, taking full advantage from positive macroeconomic indicators in the UK, as well as ignoring (as often happens in such cases), not very positive data. For example, the consumer price index was lower than forecast, but wages growth was above expectations of relevant experts, and it allows to expect the inflation acceleration. The past FOMC meeting has also played its role, as well the Fed's head Yellen comments, which were somewhat more restrained than the market had expected, giving GBP / USD bulls one more reason to build on their success. Currently quotes have reached the 50% correction of the entire downward trend from July 2014 to April 2015, which imposes certain restrictions on the bulls' activity.
At the same time, trading is still held within the upward channel boundaries and only their overrunning beyond these boundaries will give reason to take profit on current long positions. Thus, it is recommended to use any intermediate correction to the line of support to increase the volume of purchases, and, of course, to enter on the breakthrough of the current extremum.
Volatility: 92%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: weak
GOLD
is Highly Prized
Again
Bulls on gold
have used a
situation with
a false
support
level
breakthrough (1170)
and took
quotes to the middle of the last few months trading range, in the area of $ 1,200 per troy ounce.
G
iven the decline in world stock indices,
i
t is likely that
some
part of
f
unds from risky assets will
be taken
into
the
safe-haven asset (and
given the
current price
dynamics
, it is already happening).
In current conditions it is possible to consider
purchases,
based on
a
chievement of the said trading range upper boundary
-
1225. We
should note that
here
is
the 50% correction level
from
the decline in January - March
of
this year.
Volatility: 62%
Trend:
b
ullish
Fundamental background: weak
Vista Brokers: Oil is Rising amid Expectations for Greek Debt Deal
On Monday, oil futures are rising in price. Vista Brokers analysts note that the "black gold" upward trend is supported with the expectation that as a result of today's talks at the Eurogroup meeting, Greece will receive financial assistance. On Sunday, Athens has given international lenders a new reform plan, and it is hoped that it will be finally adopted by the "troika" (EU, ECB, IMF).
During the European trading session on the ICE Futures Exchange in London Brent futures for delivery in August have risen by 0.7% to $ 63.46 per barrel. Analysts remind that on Friday these futures have hit $ 62.34, the lowest level since June 5, before closing at $ 63.02 per barrel (-1.93%).
Market tensions eased after Greece on Sunday has introduced the new reform plan, stating that the country may get access to 7.2 billion euros of financial assistance. If the agreement between Athens and creditors is not reached until 30 June (deadline of paying to the IMF), Greece may be forced to default.
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams:GOLD
A purchase from 1189.21 will soon be closed, and apparently, we should re-look for the entrance mark. In any case, judging by where is the opening price and by current price dynamics, the relevant position will be profitable for us.
Volatility: 60%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: weak
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams:USD/JPY
On the current bar we have a breakthrough of the fractal up, which means overcoming of the order to buy (123.21) that was placed here earlier. Note that earlier bears have attempted to work for a breakthrough of the next support level three times, but to no avail, which may, in turn, give additional impetus to growth. In any case,it isrecommended to closely monitor the current dynamics of the pair, executing each and every System signal.
Volatility: 38%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: weak
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD
Currently we are out of the market and ready to open a new position on a breakthrough of one of oppositely directed fractals, which are on both sides of Alligator's teeth (the red line). Thus, we will buy on a breakthrough of 1.1435 and sell from 1.1287, depending on the further scenario.
Volatility: 68%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: weak
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams:GBP/USD
The long position may be closed soon (if the current bar closes under the red Alligator line). It should not go without mention that the uncertainty of buyers was caused with the fact that the price has reached the important support line – 50% correction of the whole «cable» decline in the period from July 2014 to April 2015.
Volatility: 88%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: weak
Market Pulse 06/23
Tuesday in the Forex market is full of important information. Australia has already published the house price index, and China - the manufacturing PMI index from HSBC. In European countries today will be published indices of activity in various sectors of the economy.
7:00 *** Flash Manufacturing PMI - June (France)
7:00 ** Flash Services PMI - June (France)
7:00 ** Flash PMI Composite - June (France)
7:30 *** Flash Manufacturing PMI - June (Germany)
7:30 ** Flash Services PMI - June (Germany)
7:30 ** Flash PMI Composite - June (Germany)
8:00 *** Flash Manufacturing PMI - June (euro zone)
8:00 ** Flash Services PMI - June (euro zone)
8:00 ** Flash PMI Composite - June (euro zone)
Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Forecasts for most indices are optimistic. The data on the manufacturing sector are considered to be the most important.
12:00 *** FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks - June (USA)
Strong impact on the market (USD). Powell is actively involved in the Fed monetary policy changing. His comments may have an impact on the market, as they show sentiments of the Federal Open Market Committee members.
12:30 *** Durable Goods Orders - May (USA)
12:30 *** Core Durable Goods Orders - May (USA)
Strong impact on the market (USD). The change in the number of orders for durable goods is a leading indicator of production trends, as well as investment activity. It is expected that the overall index has declined in May, but the core one, which excludes volatile orders for transport equipment, has increased.
13:45 ** Flash Manufacturing PMI - June (USA)
Moderate impact on the market (USD). The index of purchasing managers in manufacturing shows improvement (> 50) or degradation (<50) of the situation. The growth of the rate or the forecast exceeding are favorable for the currency.
14:00 ** New Home Sales - May (USA)
Moderate impact on the market (USD). Sales of new buildings in the USA completes the picture of the housing market after the statistics on sales in the secondary market. It has a high value. New home sales index is regarded as an indicator of confidence in the economy.
Vista Brokers: Greece Deal Optimism Supported Euro
On Monday there was a Eurogroup meeting, where an urgent problem of providing financial aid to Greece was discussed again. Vista Brokersanalysts note that optimistic expectations regards the results of this meeting have supported the euro - EUR / USD has hit a session high of 1.1404.
The single currency continued to grow, despite the fact that at the meeting both parties (Athens and the "troika" of creditors) have not reached the long-awaited agreement. However, the chairman of the Eurogroup Jeroen Deysselblum called the new reform plan submitted by Greece on Sunday, “broad and comprehensive”. He also noted that international creditors have not yet had the opportunity to analyze the plan in full, and when they do, perhaps the next meeting will be held. Investors expect that later this week the agreement will be concluded. Optimistic expectations were also supported by the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who has expressed his hope for the deal with Greece by the end of the week.
Later, the euro has lost its positions against the dollar after the release of the US existing home sales. Sales have risen in May by 5.1% against expected 4.8% after the previous month index had decreased by 2.3%.
Vista Brokers: Greece Deal Optimism Supported Euro
On Monday there was a Eurogroup meeting, where an urgent problem of providing financial aid to Greece was discussed again. Vista Brokersanalysts note that optimistic expectations regards the results of this meeting have supported the euro - EUR / USD has hit a session high of 1.1404.
The single currency continued to grow, despite the fact that at the meeting both parties (Athens and the "troika" of creditors) have not reached the long-awaited agreement. However, the chairman of the Eurogroup Jeroen Deysselblum called the new reform plan submitted by Greece on Sunday, “broad and comprehensive”. He also noted that international creditors have not yet had the opportunity to analyze the plan in full, and when they do, perhaps the next meeting will be held. Investors expect that later this week the agreement will be concluded. Optimistic expectations were also supported by the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who has expressed his hope for the deal with Greece by the end of the week.
Later, the euro has lost its positions against the dollar after the release of the US existing home sales. Sales have risen in May by 5.1% against expected 4.8% after the previous month index had decreased by 2.3%.
USD / JPY. Bulls or Bears?
Once again, rebounding from a 50% correction of an upward momentum in May-June, bulls have reached an upper boundary of formed during the said growth correction graphic figure "triangle". Why this figure is so good? At least because when we work on a breakthrough of its graphical boundaries, risks are relatively low, but the movement potential can be very serious. Today's data from the United States (12.30 GMT), which will have to witness the current situation with durable goods sales, are quite capable to give an appropriate impetus to the pair.
It is recommended to open the order to buy if the daily price will close above the nearest resistance level 124.45, or in the case of support level 122.43 overcoming.
Volatility: 41%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: strong
EUR / USD.
It Will be a Movement after
C
onsolidation
The next Greek epic saga comes to an end, so
in the near future may happen a radical change in the EUR / USD technical picture. In recent weeks quotes (largely due to expectations of solving the situation
in
Greece) are consolidated within
a
narrow trading range, but time passes, and the market's reaction in the
case
of
Grexit
may be unpredictable.
At this point, bears
are making
an attempt to break the support line, and if they succeed
and
consolidate below
it
, the downward movement will gain momentum and
the nearest target
may be 1.1050. It is likely that today
the
data on the current level of business activity in the euro
zone and its countries
will contribute to
it
.
Volatility: 63%
Trend:
s
ide
ways
Fundamental background: strong
Vista Brokers: Oil Falls prior to Fresh API Data
On Tuesday, futures on West Texas Intermediate are declining, having lost in early European trading 0.44% to $ 60.12 per barrel. Vista Brokersanalysts say that investors are waiting for the fresh data from the American Petroleum Institute, which will show the last week change in volume of crude oil and petroleum products inventories in the US. Statistics on stocks reflects the change in the volume of consumption of the world's largest buyer of oil, so that this data is quite important for the market.
On Wednesday, the oil market participants will also expect official statistics from the Energy Department, which is expected to show a decline in crude inventories in the United States by 1.8 million barrels for the week ended June 19.
Analysts recall that some time ago the pressure on the "black gold" price was provided with the fact that the level of oil production in the US is in no hurry to fall, despite the reduction in the number of drilling rigs. Thus, according to Baker Hughes, the number of drilling rigs has been declining for the 28th consecutive week, but production thus remains at the level of 9.6 million barrels per day, which is the highest since 1970s.
Nevertheless, today on ICE Futures Exchange in London August futures for Brent have fallen by 0.08% to $ 63.29 per barrel. The spread between Brent and WTI is at $ 3.17 a barrel.
Waiting for the evening data on stocks in the United States does not prevent participants of the oil market, as, indeed, participants of all financial markets, from closely monitoring the situation in negotiations of Greece and its creditors. Recall that on Monday at the meeting of the Eurogroup agreement has not been reached, but many top officials of the euro zone have indicated that it is likely to happen later this week.
Market Pulse 24.06
On Wednesday, the German IFO Institute will publish its indicators on the state of the German economy. It should also be noted that in the US the final GDP data will be released.
8:00 *** Ifo Business Climate - June (Germany)
8:00 ** IFO - Current Assessment - June (Germany)
8:00 ** IFO - Expectations - June (Germany)
Strong impact on the market (EUR). Forecasts for indexes of the German IFO institute are not too optimistic. It is expected that the current assessment indicator will remain on the level of the previous month, while the other two will reduce. The most important of these three indicators is considered the businessclimateone, based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers. In June, analysts expect a reduction of the index.
8:30 ** BBA Mortgage Approvals - May (UK)
Moderate impact on the market (GPB). It indicates the number of executed loans to buy housing. It allows to evaluate the activity in the British mortgage market, according to data from the largest banks.
12:30 ** Final GDP - Q1 (USA)
Moderate impact on the market (USD). It is expected that the final data for the first quarter will show a decrease of the US economy by 0.2%.