Technical and Market Analysis by Vistabrokers - page 23
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Vista Brokers: DollarCorrectsfromEarlierReachedMulti-yearHighs
A new week in the currency market began with the euro increasing against its main counterpart. Vista Brokers analysts point out that at the end of last week, pessimism regards the euro after the launch of the ECB's quantitative easing program was replaced with the dollar weakness caused by the Fed's indecision. As a result, the euro and other major currencies were able to partially reassert themselves. Note that on Monday, the dollar index, which shows its price against a basket of other currencies, was down by 0.9% to 86.66.
On Monday, markets returned to the theme of Greece. Investors were looking forward to results of the visit of Greek Prime Minister Tsipras to Berlin and his meeting with German Chancellor Merkel. During the meeting, Athens refused compensation claims for damage during World War II. And Merkel, in turn, said that she is not against the establishment of Development Bank to support Greece. However, the country, where in 2 weeks there may be a default, did not receive any specific commitments on financial bailout.
Analysts believe that the reason for greenback reducing, which opens the way for other currencies increasing, is that investors have moved their Fed raising interest rates expectations from June to September. After the last Federal Reserve meeting, investors did not receive expected signals, and it gave them a cold shower regards the dollar.
www.vistabrokers.com
Vista Brokers:Dollar is weakening amid Fed Rates Increase Expectations Movingfrom June to September
On Tuesday, the dollar continued to decline against its major counterparts, going futher from earlier reached multi-year highs. Vista Brokers analysts say that the main reason for the greenback's increase against other currencies in recent weeks was that investors have expected the Fed raising interest rates in June. However, after unexpectedly soft statements of the Federal Reserve, which have not given any expected hawkish signals, market sentiment changed. Now, investors expect the first increase in interest rates in September.
During early Tuesday trading, the dollar lost 0.1% against the yen, trading at 119.64 against a 8-year high of 122.04 before the Fed last week's meeting. The euro rose by 0.1% to reach 1.0951, continuing to recover after reaching a 12-year low at 1.0457.
Yesterday the currency market participants lined some of their short positions in the single currency. Some experts expect that for a while the EUR / USD will trade in a limited range, although in the long term, the dollar may still "take its course." For example, Shaun Osborne from TD Securities is stall thinking that soon the dollar and the euro will reach parity. Although analysts do not expect the US currency growth in the near future, because inflation in the US in the next few months is unlikely to grow, and this factor will continue to put pressure on the greenback.
It is worth noting that recent statements of the Federal Reserve representatives had basically hawk character. Thus, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in an interview on Monday that the dollar strengthening is a signal of the US economic recovery, but the strong currency may hurt exports. Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer confirmed that the probability of mid-year rates hike is very high. Also on Monday, San Francisco Fed President John Williams has spoken and his speech was regarded as a hawk.
www.vistabrokers.com
Market Pulse 03/24
After a quiet Monday came a busy with important information Tuesday, and today high volatility is expected in the market. China has already released its HSBC flash manufacturing PMI index. Lots of important statistics will be published today in the euro zone. Also investors are waiting for inflation data in the UK and the US.
8:00 *** Flash Manufacturing PMI - March (France)
8:00 ** Flash Services PMI - March (France)
8:00 ** Flash PMI Composite - March (France)
Strong impact on the market (EUR). Analysts expect that business activity in the French manufacturing sector has increased, as well as a PMI composite index. In a services sector they predict a slight decline.
8:30 *** Flash Manufacturing PMI - March (Germany)
8:30 ** Flash Services PMI - March (Germany)
8:30 ** Flash PMI Composite - March (Germany)
Strong impact on the market (EUR). Analysts expect a slight growth in all these three indices of the largest eurozone economy. Given the weakness of the dollar amid the US Federal Reserve indecision, positive data could support the euro.
09:00 ** Flash Manufacturing PMI - March (the euro zone)
9:00 ** Flash Services PMI - March (the euro zone)
9:00 ** Flash PMI Composite - March (the euro zone)
Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Analysts expect a slight growth in all three indices in the euro zone. Given the weakness of the dollar amid the US Federal Reserve indecision, positive data could support the euro.
9:30 *** Consumer Price Index - February (UK)
9:30 ** Core CPI - February (UK)
9:30 ** Retail Price Index - February (UK)
9:30 ** Producer Price Index Input - February (UK)
9:30 ** Producer Price IndexOutput- February (UK)
9:30 ** Producer Price Index Output Core - February (UK)
Moderate impact on the market (GPB). A portion of British statistics, published today, is interesting for traders because it can determine the future dynamics of the pound. In particular, we mean data on the consumer price index, which is predicted to increase by 0.3% in February.
12:30 *** Consumer Price Index - February (USA)
12:30 *** Core CPI - February (USA)
12:30 ** Consumer Price Index - February (USA)
12:30 ** Consumer PriceCoreIndex - February (USA)
12:30 ** Flash Manufacturing PMI- March (USA)
Strong impact on the market (USD). Data can also be very interesting. Recall that in January, consumer prices in the US showed a decline of 0.7% month on month and of 0.1% year on year, but now analysts expect a growth by 0.2% and a decline by 0.1%, respectively. On whether the data coincide with forecasts may depend on the US dollar dynamics.
14:00 *** New Home Sales - February (USA)
Strong impact on the market (USD). The indicator complements the statistics on sales in the secondary market and allows us to see the whole situation in the property market. It counts for much, since new homes sales consider to be an indicator of confidence in the economy.
www.vistabrokers.com
USD / JPY isGettingCloser toEvent Horizon
Bulls still fail to trigger a growth from a trend - the US dollar continues its downward correction amid profit-taking after a prolonged growth. Today we expect inflation data in the US and it will probably be decided in the course of the US trading session to be or not to be a breakthrough of the said support line.
Better than expected (0.2%) data on the consumer price index increase will provide a basis for the pair growth (while purchases should be made only after getting confirmation from indicators). In case of weak data, bears will likely make an attempt to overcome a nearest support level (119.25 - the minimum, which has been reached after the Fed's statement last Wednesday). We must use it, acting accordingly (sale from 119.25), because the scope for the further reduction can not be overestimated.
EUR / USD. RestoringGains Momentum
The single currency, along with the rest of the the American currency competitors, continues to recover, adding four and a half figures in last ten days. Today, during the European trading session will be published preliminary data on the level of business activity in the services sector, as well as the industrial sector, which might cause a new surge of optimism in the market, because expectations are rather optimistic. Many experts think that these data have the highest predicative function, showing appropriate further changes in the real sector. Currently the pair is moving within short-term upward trend boundaries, which is confirmed by the support line presence, as well as by the fact that quotes continue to be located above the average with period 25, shift 5 (trend indicator), that we use.
It is recommended to buy at the nearest resistance level (1.1042) breakthrough, and then at the next one (1.1096), which is corresponding to an extremum of a descending wave, ended in January, with the target of 1.1380 (the level where the latest wave of decline has started).
www.vistabrokers.com
Vista Brokers: OnTuesday Publicationswere Multidirectional
Yesterday was published a lot of important data, and firstly we should note PMI indexes in manufacturing and service sectors, which have been released in France, Germany and the euro zone. Vista Brokers analysts note that in France indexes were lower than expected, in contrast to the data in Germany and the euro zone. Overall, the data suggest that the ECB stimulus measures work and business activity is increasing.
For example, in Germany manufacturing PMI grew by 1.3 versus expected 0.4, and the same index, but for the services sector increased by 1.5 versus 0.3. In the euro zone manufacturing PMI rose by 0.9 versus 0.6, and services PMI – by 0.6 versus 0.2. The composite purchasing managers' indexes also rose more than expected both in the euro zone and in its largest of its economy. The single currency rose amid these data against the dollar, as well as European stock markets did.
Later, the upward trend in the euro was replaced by downward one as investors expected strong data on the US inflation. Statistics did not disappoint market participants. In February, the consumer price index in the United States grew by 0.2% on a monthly basis, as it was expected. Year on year the index showed zero growth, but analysts had expected a decline by 0.1%. The core consumer price index excluding volatile food and energy prices showed an increase of 0.2% mom and 1.7% yoy, while the first data was slightly better than expected, and the second one lined with expectations.
www.vistabrokers.com
Vista Brokers: StrongFranc has aNegativeImpact onSwiss Economy
Today in Switzerland a UBS Consumption Indicator for February was published at around 1.19 points. January data were revised down – from 1.24 to 1.11 points. Vista Brokers analysts note that the rate increase in February was mostly caused by increase of new car registrations number. The number of registrations increased by 13% compared with January, but it is still 3% below if to compare with the same period in 2014, when Switzerland had not raised taxes on carbon emissions.
Swiss economy in recent months clearly felt pessimism. A consumer sentiment index fell from 4 to -4 points. Most retailers suffer from the franc growth. In the short term it is positive for consumers, whose purchasing power has increased dramatically. But if you look deeper, too strong franc makes companies to cut costs, including reducing the number of employees. This may in the future lead to higher unemployment and lower wages.
www.vistabrokers.com
Market Pulse 03/25
Today the most important publications of the day will be IFO indicators in Germany, as well as durable goods data in the USA. New Zealand has already released trade balance data, and Australia has published an RBAfinancialstabilityreview.
9:00 *** IFO Business Climate - March (Germany)
9:00 ** IFO - Current Assessment - March (Germany)
9:00 ** IFO - Expectations - March (Germany)
Strong impact on the market (EUR). Data for Germany may give the euro a considerable support, as analysts' expectations are quite optimistic, and the dollar is now shaky, so that the single currency has more chances for growth.
9:30 ** BBA Mortgage Approvals - February (UK)
Moderate impact on the market (GPB). This indicator shows the number of loans for home purchases. It allows us to estimate the activity on the UK mortgage market, according to the largest banks.
10:30 ** FOMC members Charles EvansSpeaks- March (USA)
Moderate impact on the market (USD). Charles Evans is a head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He is the FOMC voting member, so his opinion affects the monetary policy committee.
12:30 *** Durable Goods Orders - February (USA)
12:30 *** Core Durable Goods Orders - February (USA)
Strong impact on the market (USD). Analysts expect a small growth for both indicators. The first includes volatile prices, for example, from the aircraft industry. These are leading indicators of production trends, as well as of the investment activity.
www.vistabrokers.com
Vista Brokers: StatisticsSupportedEuro
On Wednesday, the most anticipated event of the day was a publication of durable goods data in the United States. Vista Brokers analysts note that this indicator is a leading indicator of production trends and investment activity, and markets were expected a strong statistics in the context of the US economy recovery. However, actual data were significantly worse than expected.
Thus, in February, the volume of orders for durable goods fell by 1.4% against the expected growth by 0.3%. Core durable goods orders (excluding transportation equipment) fell by 0.4%, while analysts had expected growth by 0.3%. These data indicate a decrease in demand.
Unlike the US one, the statistics in the euro zone came out better than expected, opening the euro a way to a level of $ 1.10 against the dollar and to growth against other major currencies. IFO businessclimate indicator in Germany exceeded forecasts, increasingin March to 107.9 instead of 107.4. IFOeconomic expectations indicator showed growth to 103.9 vs expected 103.0. Investors saw positive statistics as a signal that the eurozone economy shows signs of recovery after the launch of the program of quantitative easing by the ECB.
www.vistabrokers.com
Vista Brokers: Markets Reacted to YemenEscalation
On Thursday, stocks fell in Asia due to reduction in risk appetite. Oil climbs rapidely, the dollar strengthens against major currencies. Vista Brokers analysts note that since yesterday financial markets are affected by the conflict in the Middle East. In particular, on Wednesday, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies launched air strikes in Yemen, against Houthi fighters.
A strongest impact geopolitical risks have on oil prices. On Wednesday, on the ICE exchange May futures for Brent crude rose by more than 2%, exceeding the level of $ 56 per barrel. On the New York Mercantile Exchange NYMEX May futures for WTI crude oil added more than 3%, breaking the level of $ 49 per barrel. Today, the growth continues. WTI crude oil rose by $ 2.26 to $ 51.47 per barrel, and Brent oil – by $ 2.47 to $ 58.95 per barrel.
US Treasuries, which are considered safe haven, also increased, while gold rose to $ 2,000 per ounce. At the same time Asian stocks show a decrease. The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell by 0.6%. Japan's Nikkei showed the greatest day drop since mid-January - by 1.6%.
Earlier, on Wednesday the Wall Street has also declined. Nasdaq fell by 2.37%, and it is the maximum daytime drop in nearly a year. DJI fell by 1.62%, S & P 500 – by 1.46%.
There is a possibility that the conflict in the Arabian Peninsula will grow into a real war, as Shiite rebels are supported by Iran. According to Reuters news agency, Saudi Arabia and its allies are tightening the heavy weapons to the borders of Yemen. Yemeni President Hadi, who enjoyed the support of Saudi Arabia, fled the country when insurgents got to the southern city of Aden.
www.vistabrokers.com
Market Pulse03/26
7:00 ** GfK Consumer Climate - April (Germany)
Moderate impact on the market (EUR). A leading consumer climate index from GfK characterizes consumers' sentiment, their willingness to spend money and attitude to the economy by the beginning of the reporting month. The growth of the rate may be favorable for the currency.
9:00 ** M3 Money Supply - February (euro zone)
Moderate impact on the market (EUR). An indicator reflects changes in M3 money supply. It demonstrates the growth of cash and non-cash funds in circulation. Increase is positive for the currency, as it reflects the risk of inflation.
09:30 *** Retail Sales With Auto Fuel - February (UK)
9:30 ** Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel - February (UK)
9:30 ** Financial Policy Committee Statement - March (UK)
11:00 ** CBI Realized Sales - March (UK)
Strong impact on the market (GPB). The most important among this portion of statistics are considered to be retail sales with auto fuel data. Analysts' forecasts are optimistic - in February rate is expected to increase by 0.4% after falling by 0.3% previous month.
12:30 *** Unemployment Claims - March (USA)
12:30 ** Continuing Claims - March (USA)
13:00 ** FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks - March (USA)
Strong impact on the market (USD). The indicator, which shows the number of Americans who have applied for unemployment benefits during the reporting week, is very relevant and closely monitored by the market now. Forecasts for the past week are optimistic.
13:30 *** BOC Governor Stephen Poloz Speaks - March (Canada)
20:00 ** Annual Budget Release - 2015 (Canada)
Strong impact on the market (CAD). Market participants attentively listen to comments of Stephen Poloz, as they may contain some hints to change the course of monetary policy, or to change the Bank's assessments of the economic outlook.
www.vistabrokers.com