WHO Warns Ebola Outbreak Out Of Control, "High Risk Of Spread To Other Countries" - page 4

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I don't know if source (code:) is reliable...but anyway: http://www.spiritscienceandmetaphysics.com/ebo-lie-man-living-in-ghana-confirms-ebola-is-a-hoax/ they are right about moving military over there...something to think about...

 

Man it will never stop

 

GOLDMAN: Here's The Worst-Case Scenario For Ebola

The spread of the Ebola virus has been dominating headlines in recent weeks.

While the ultimate death toll may be limited, the economic impact could potentially be significant.

The "'fear factor' associated with Ebola appears more significant than in past instances of pandemic concern, in our view," Goldman Sachs' Kris Dawsey writes.

Dawsey studied how other recent pandemic events ultimately played out in the US and Hong Kong.

"Recent episodes of pandemic concern in the US — including SARS in 2003, bird flu (H5N1) in 2005, and swine flu (H1N1) in 2009 — resulted in little if any discernible effect on retail sales or tourist arrivals," Dawsey found.

Still Dawsey offers downside and worst-case scenarios: 9/11 in the US and SARS in Hong Kong. From his note (emphasis ours):

... For the downside scenario, we think the example of the September 11 terrorist attacks could be informative. In the aftermath of the attacks, demand for air travel temporarily dried up, while some people reportedly preferred to avoid crowded public places such as subway stations, shopping malls, etc. At the time, concerns were further exacerbated by limited-scale anthrax attacks unrelated to the September 11th attacks themselves. If the Ebola situation was to worsen much more than expected, it is possible to imagine that a similar atmosphere of fear could arise. In terms of broader macroeconomic effects, Roberts (2009) estimates the drag on GDP growth from the September 11 attacks at roughly 0.5 percentage point for the year 2001. Some of this drag was certainly due to direct destruction of factors of production, and as such we would view this as an upper-bound on the drag from fear/risk-aversion effects.

In terms of worst-case tail risk scenarios, the example of the SARS outbreak in Hong Kong during 2003 is worth considering. During this time, Hong Kong retail sales dropped roughly 10% from their peak, while air traffic plummeted even more than that seen after the September 11 attacks. Lee and McKibbin (2004) estimate that the SARS outbreak reduced Hong Kong GDP growth in 2003 by 2.6 percentage points. Incidentally, the World Bank cites shopping centers in Lagos, Nigeria—which has largely contained the Ebola outbreak at 19 confirmed cases—reporting sales down 20 to 40%, an even larger decline than that seen in Hong Kong during the SARS outbreak. Again, we believe a fairly limited economic outcome for US growth is most likely, and we present the examples of September 11 and the Hong Kong SARS outbreak only as examples of downside or worst-case tail risk scenarios.

Here's Dawsey's charts, indexing the effects of those risk events:

So far, the impact on consumer sentiment appears to be negligible.

"The daily Rasmussen confidence index has been relatively range-bound since early September," Dawsey noted. "The daily economic confidence index from Gallup has actually risen over this period. Consensus expects the preliminary October read on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan (to be released Friday, October 17) to remain roughly stable, although we see downside risk to the consensus view."

Dawsey adds that the West Africa, where the Ebola outbreak is most serious, is an important exporter of iron ore. However, in the context of global supply, it's relatively small, and Goldman analysts believe iron ore is currently "fundamentally oversupplied."

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theNews:
New York's First Ebola Case? Doctor Treating Ebola Patients In Guinea Rushed To Bellevue Hosptial

Tomorrow we shall be told that it was a fake

 

Yale Researcher: 12% Of Liberia's Most Populous County May Have Ebola By December 15

For all the headline fodder surrounding the arrival of Ebola in the US, or any other developed nation for that matter, the key issue surrounding the worst Ebola epidemic in history has little to do with what the virus is doing on the western side of the Atlantic, and everything to do with containing the source of contagion on the eastern side.

It is this issue that a paper in today's edition of The Lancet: Infectious Diseasestackles. It's conclusion:

The number of beds at EVD treatment centres needed to effectively control EVD in Montserrado substantially exceeds the 1700 pledged by the USA to west Africa. Accelerated case ascertainment is needed to maximise effectiveness of expanding the capacity of EVD treatment centres. Distributing protective kits can further augment prevention of EVD, but it is not an adequate stand-alone measure for controlling the outbreak. Our findings highlight the rapidly closing window of opportunity for controlling the outbreak and averting a catastrophic toll of EVD cases and deaths.

The authors do not specify if the catastrophic toll would impact only Africa, but they don't have to: as long as the original epidemic continues unabated and in fact grows larger, the risk of a carrier sliding undetected into any developed nation rises exponentially.

The Yale News summarizesthe full paper:

The Ebola virus disease epidemic already devastating swaths of West Africa will likely get far worse in the coming weeks and months unless international commitments are significantly and immediately increased, new research led by Yale researchers predicts.

The findings are published in the Oct. 24 issue of The Lancet Infectious Diseases.

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FDA Warns Against Online ‘Fraudulent’ Silver Ebola Cures

Ebola has reached New York City, and although there seems to be many questionable cures circling the internet – some of which include silver – there are currently no government-approved treatments for the virus.

A Food and Drug Administration (FDA) representative was unable to give an interview to Kitco News regarding silver as a potential treatment for Ebola; however, the representative said that it “is important to note that there are currently no FDA-approved vaccines or prescription or over-the-counter drugs to prevent or treat Ebola.”

The FDA also warned consumers to be cautious of ‘fraudulent’ Ebola treatments sold online.

“A claim that a product prevents, treats, or cures a disease requires prior approval by FDA and may be made only for products that are approved drugs,” the representative added in the email to Kitco.

In one case, New-Jersey based Natural Solutions Foundation promotes nano silver as a cure for Ebola on its website.

“Nano silver has been shown in laboratories and in clinical environments around the world to inactivate viruses like the HIV virus, the hepatitis B & C viruses, influenza virus […] and Ebola virus,” said the NGO’s medical director Dr. Rima Laibow in a YouTube video posted on the site.

“The FDA does not have the regulatory authority to approve a nutrient, and the cure and prevention for Ebola is a nutrient,” she added.

Laibow’s foundation is among other organizations the FDA has targeted for untested claims. In fact, a warning letter was sent to her in late September stating that the alleged health claims made on the site are violating the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act.

The FDA’s warning comes at a time where significant concerns surrounding Ebola are growing, with four people being diagnosed with the virus in the U.S. Fears deepened this week as a child is reportedly being tested for Ebola in New York City, one of the most densely populated areas in America.

According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there are a total of 10,141 cases of Ebola around the world, with the virus taking the lives of 4,913 individuals in West Africa, 8 lives in Nigeria and one in the United States.

“Although there are experimental Ebola vaccines and treatments under development, these investigational products are in the early stages of product development, have not yet been fully tested for safety or effectiveness, and the supply is very limited,” the FDA stated in a press release.

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The Story Changes: Ebola Is Now "Aerostable" And Can Remain On Surfaces For 50 Days

When it comes to Ebola, the story that the government is telling us just keeps on changing. At first, government officials were claiming that it was very difficult to spread the Ebola virus. Some of them were even comparing it to HIV. We were given the impression that we had to have “direct contact” with someone else’s body fluids in order to have any chance of catching the virus. But of course that is not true at all. Now authorities are admitting that Ebola is “aerostable”, that it can be “spread through droplets”, and that it can remain on surfaces for up to 50 days. That is far different information than we have been getting up until this point. So that means when they were so confidently declaring that they know exactly how Ebola spreads they were lying to us.

On October 24th, a 33 page document was released by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, and in that document it is admitted that Ebola is “aerostable”. WND was one of the first news outlets to report on this…

The Story Changes: Ebola Is Now "Aerostable" And Can Remain On Surfaces For 50 Days

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