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AUD/USD: Aussie Kicks Off New Year on Rising Commodity Prices The Aussie rebounded against the greenback on Thursday, breaching the $0.73 psychological level for the second time in two days, while trying to keep its steady position on New Year's Eve. The main reason for the trend was a hike in all major commodity prices, as well as a slower trading session overall.
The Australian dollar climbed 0.29% to trade at $0.7307 against the US dollar in the early European session on Thursday, staying firmly above the $0.73 mark.
The Aussie's probabilities to stay above the $0.7280 level at the beginning of the new year increased significantly today, giving the currency some cheer to bring in the New Year.
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Good move last week!
Australia - AiG Services PMI for December: 46.3 (prior was 48.2) Australian Performance of Services Index for December
Australia November Retail Sales: +0.4% m/m (vs. +0.4% expected) Australia November Retail Sales: up 0.4% m/m
AUD barely changed on the release, up a few tics as I update but hardly anything in it. Not surprising really, its China that's driving the bus this week and market there open in around 45 minutes (for the yuan fix) and an hour or so (for stock markets)
AUD/USD forecast for the week of January 11, 2016 The AUD/USD pair broke down significantly during the course of the week, slicing through the massive uptrend line that we have been following for several months now. With this, it appears that the market is certainly going to be extraordinarily bearish now, and as the candle is closing at the very bottom of the range, that also suggests that there should be continuation of this bearish pressure. The 0.69 level has been supportive in the past, but quite frankly we feel it could be broken sooner due to what we are seeing on this chart.
Any rally at this point in time should be sold off on signs of resistance. Quite frankly, the uptrend line that the market had previously been dealing with should now be resistance. The market should find plenty of sellers above, as the US dollar continues to be one of the strong as currencies in the world. On top of that, the Australian dollars unfortunately tied inexorably to the Chinese economy, and that of course means that people will be very cautious about owning the Aussie dollar as the Chinese markets have been absolutely horrific as of late.
It is not until we break back above the previous uptrend line that we would consider buying, as this market has been in such a massive downtrend over the last year and a half. That being the case, the market should continue to offer plenty of opportunities, but it comes down to whether or not you are comfortable hanging onto a trade for volatility, or if you prefer to short this market on the daily charts. Quite frankly, it’s difficult to imagine that this market is going to be able to rally for any significant amount of time, and as a result this should be one of the easier trades to make. Ironically, gold markets are rallying a bit, which normally would push the Australian dollar higher, but has not. That shows just how much concern there is in owning the Australian dollar at the moment as we do not see any bullishness.
AUD/NZD: Aussie Steals Kiwi's Thunder Despite Commodity Freefall Against all fundamentals the Australian dollar managed to trade with sizeable gains on Monday, seemingly numb to the renewed freefall in oil prices and the 5% drop in Chinese equities.
The AUD/NZD pair was trading up 0.45% at $1.0663 on Monday evening in New York from $1.0616 where the cross started the week, but down from the intraday high of $1.0700. Just last week the cross was trading at its weakest since end-October.
The aussie also picked up the pace against the greenback, climbing over 60 pips to $0.6994 by Monday afternoon in the US trading session.
Aside from a touch of weakness at the very start of Monday's session, the Australian dollar spent the day defying gravity, and its fundamentals.
The commodity-based currency rose despite oil futures trading at fresh 12-year lows on Monday. WTI futures tumbled 6.09% to $31.16 per barrel while Brent plunged 6.71% to $31.30 a barrel.
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AUD/USD re-approaches 4-month lows on China worries The Australian dollar dropped against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday, re-approaching a four-month trough as sentiment remained fragile amid ongoing concerns over volatility in China.
AUD/USD hit 0.6953 during late Asian trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.6956, declining 0.58%.
The pair was likely to find support at 0.6923, Monday’s low and a four-month low and resistance at 0.7075, the high of January 8.
Markets were jittery after China’s central bank moved once again to support the yuan, but losses in Chinese shares overnight fueled further concerns over the outlook for the world’s second largest economy.
The yuan\'s central parity rate against the U.S. dollar was set at 6.5628 Tuesday, slightly weaker than Monday's 6.5626 level set by the People\'s Bank of China.
On Monday, China’s central bank attempted to soothe markets by setting the daily fix for the yuan against the dollar dramatically higher in comparison with its level at last week\'s close. While the Chinese currency surged against the dollar in offshore trade, Chinese equities continued to plunge, extending severe losses from the opening week of the year.
China is Australia’s biggest export partner.
The Aussie was sharply higher against the euro, with EUR/AUD jumping 1.15% to 1.5703.
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I'm still unsure of the main trend.
AUD/USD: Aussie Remains Fragile, Ignores Upbeat Jobs Data The Australian dollar was unable to swing to gains despite the domestic labor market continuing to improve in December. Returning risk-off sentiment was a stronger driver, as investors shed riskier assets and higher yielding currencies such as the aussie and the kiwi.
The aussie's knee jerk reaction after the release was just 30 pips to above the $0.6950 area. However, the spike was short lived as low investor appetite for riskier assets dragged the AUD/USD back towards $0.6920. The aussie eventually managed to trim some losses to trade just 0.07% lower at $0.6950.
Although Australian employment fell in December, it was a lot less than initially expected. Employment declined by 1,000 in December, after rising by an average of 65,000 in the previous two months, while the unemployment rate stayed at 5.8%, the lowest rate in two years. The consensus forecast was a decline of 10,000 and the unemployment rate to climb back up to 5.9%.
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AUD/USD rises to 2-week highs on Australian inflation data The Australian dollar rose to two-week highs against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, after the release of upbeat inflation data from Australia and as sentiment on the greenback remained vulnerable ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy statement due later in the day.
AUD/USD hit 0.7051 during late Asian trade, the pair’s highest since January 8; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7028, rising 0.31%.
The pair was likely to find support at 0.6916, Tuesday’s low and resistance at 0.7075, the high of January 8.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Wednesday that the consumer price index rose 0.4% in the fourth quarter, beating expectations for an uptick of 0.3%, after a 0.5% increase in the three months to September.
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