AUD/USD news - page 32
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
AUD/USD forecast for the week of November 23, 2015
The AUD/USD pair rose during the course of the week, as we continue to see a bit of support near the 0.70 level. With this being the case, we think it’s only a matter time before the sellers will enter the market though, as we see a significant amount of resistance near the 0.74 level. Ultimately, we are looking for some type of resistant candle in order to start selling, but right now obviously do not have it. We may have to look to shorter-term charts in order to do that though.
source
RBA's Stevens: Aussie Effect Too Slow, Further Easing Possible The effects of a decline in the Australian dollar's exchange rate are proving a bit slow to come through and low inflation would not be a barrier to further easing of monetary policy, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said Tuesday.
In a speech entitled 'Address to the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner', Stevens predicted that global interest rates would remain "very low" for most of the decade ahead, and that yields for most investors would remain depressed for the foreseeable future.
Still, he noted that the likelihood that the Fed will raise rates next month, "or pretty soon" is high.
The RBA has held official interest rates steady at a record low 2.0% since May, recently indicating its contentedness with a slow but developing shift in the drivers of the economy away from mining.
read more
JPMorgan sees Australian dollar sinking in early 2016 JPMorgan forecasts fall to 0.67 early in the year
Analysts at JPMorgan think the Australian dollar will bottom early in the year at 0.6700 before recovering to 0.7200 at the end of the year. Today AUD/USD is down 20 pips to 0.7232.
"Australia's terms of trade have fallen 30% since 3Q11, a compelling drag on the currency and nominal GDP in recent years. But for 2016, we do not have a lot of shape in our forecast profile for the terms of trade, largely because we see Australia's major commodity prices as mostly range bound in the year ahead," they wrote in a client note.
On the kiwi, they see 0.59 in Q1 and a recovery to 0.61 at year end. Spot is at 0.6572.
"The risk bias to Antipodean currencies remains firmly to the downside in 2016," they write.
Their final theme is lower volatility in AUD/USD.
Flatter commodity prices and more certainty on domestic interest rates are the main reason. If commodity prices remain flat, AUD traders will look elsewhere for moves.
"One implication of our analysis is that at least in the short term, the AUD may exhibit a greater sensitivity to 1) interest rate differentials and 2) perceptions around the Chinese growth story in the year ahead," they write.
source
AUD/USD forecast for the week of November 30, 2015 The AUD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but found enough resistance near the 0.73 level to turn things around and form a shooting star. The shooting star of course is a negative sign and should send this market back down to the 0.70 level, but it might take a while to get there. This is a very tight market and therefore we are not fans of trading from a longer-term perspective. We are going to stick towards the short-term charts in order to start selling again.
RBA Preview: Expect This Shift In The RBA Language On AUD - ANZ The RBA meets tomorrow for the final time in 2015 and there is some chance that the RBA shifts its language on the AUD once again, says Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ).
"Statements since August have characterised the AUD with “The Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.” This statement shifted in August, where previously the bank had said “The Australian dollar has declined noticeably against a rising US dollar over the past year, though less so against a basket of currencies. Further depreciation seems both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices.“," ANZ notes.
read more
RBA Preview: Central Bank to Reassess Easing in 2016 The chances of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting the cash rate to a record-low 1.75% on Tuesday are slim, especially after RBA Governor Glenn Stevens explicitly told economists expecting a cut to "chill out" last week, however, there is no doubt the rate-cut debate will fire back up next year.
Most, if not all, economists see the RBA keeping the benchmark rate at 2.0% for the seventh-consecutive month in December, particularly after October's stellar labor report, which had net job growth at 38,600 and the unemployment rate slipping from 6.2% to 5.9%. Just days before the labor report was released, the RBA had forecast the unemployment rate to stay within the range of 6.00-6.25% over the next year.
"We expect the RBA to keep its cash rate on hold this week," economist Mieke Welvaert of Wellington-based Infometrics told WBP Online reporters on Monday. "In seasonally adjusted terms, the monthly lift in employment was 0.5% for both full-time and part-time work, which is a promising sign that firms are more committed to expanding their labor capacity. "
As well as strong job growth, a recovery in GDP growth - from a measly 0.2% in the June quarter to an expected 0.7% last quarter - should afford the RBA some room to breathe over the Christmas break. Unfortunately, September-quarter GDP figures are due to be released the day after the RBA's December meeting.
read more
AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 7-11 AUD/USD sparkled last week, as the pair jumped 150 points. AUD/USD closed at 0.7333. This week’s key events are NAB Business Confidence and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
In the US, Janet Yellen provided strong hints that the Fed will raise rates next week, lauding the labor market and dismissing persistently weak inflation. The critical NFP came in above expectations, but the ISM PMIs disappointed.
Updates:
read more
Pair is trading out of trend now.
Australia - AiG Construction PMI for November: 50.7 (prior 52.1) Australian Industry Group Performance of Construction Index for November 'Key findings' on the report from AiG:
read more
AUD/USD: Aussie Drops Over 1%, Trades at $0.72 The AUD/USD pair suffered significant losses on Monday, falling more than 1%, mainly due to the greenback's strength.
The aussie was down 1.06% and trading at $0.7264 against the greenback, after hitting $07257 - the lowest level since December 1.
The greenback rose across the board on positive macro news and anticipation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin tightening monetary policy on December 16.
"The US dollar was stronger across the board on Monday as the euro continued to retrace its ECB-surge, commodity prices tanked and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said markets were prepared for a hike," Jasper Lawler, analyst with CMC Markets, said in a note.
Friday’s American employment data showed that non-farm payrolls added 211,000 positions in November, slightly above expectations, as the jobless rate held steady at a seven-year low of 5%. The data supported expectations of a rate hike during the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting in December.
The US calendar was light on Monday. The Labor Market Conditions Index fell to 0.5 points in November, its lowest point since April, showing that the US job market is getting healthier but at a more tepid pace.
Also, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Monday that inaccurate Fed forecasts on growth, inflation and employment could complicate the central bank's policy move.
read more