AUD/USD news - page 17
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
AUD/USD forecast for the week of May 11, 2015
The AUD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but found the 0.80 level resistive again. With this, it appears that the market will continue to find sellers in that general vicinity, and we feel that it is only a matter of time before this market tries to break down. Although we did not finish the week with a shooting star, it was very similar. Because of this, we feel that a combination of not only this week’s candle, but the week before should continue to find bearish pressure.
source
AUD/USD weekly outlook: May 11 - 15
The Australian dollar rose against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as slightly weaker than expected data on U.S. nonfarm payrolls added to speculation that the Federal Reserve may hold off raising interest rates in the immediate future.
AUD/USD tacked on 0.29% on Friday to end at 0.7930. For the week, the pair jumped 1.03%, the fifth straight weekly gain.
The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 223,000 new jobs in April, just below expectations for jobs growth of 224,000. March’s figure was revised down to just 85,000 from a previously reported gain of 126,000.
The unemployment rate fell from 5.5% to a near seven-year low of 5.4% last month, broadly in line with forecasts.
The U.S. dollar initially rallied following the data, before giving back some gains, as traders focused on the negative details of the jobs report.
The dollar index rose to a session peak of 95.17, before trimming gains to settle at 94.91 by late Friday, up 0.18%. On Wednesday, the index slumped to an 11-week low of 93.95.
Recent economic reports have indicated that the U.S. economy has slowed since the start of the year, prompting many investors to push back expectations on the timing of an initial rate hike by the Fed to late-2015, instead of midyear.
Meanwhile, in Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its outlook for growth and inflation for 2015 and 2016 on Friday, saying the economy will continue to expand at a subpar rate for a longer than expected period.
On Thursday, official data showed that the number of employed people in Australia declined by 2,900 in April, compared to expectations for an increase of 5,000. The report also showed that Australia's unemployment rate rose to 6.2% last month from 6.1% in March.
The tepid data came after the RBA lowered its benchmark interest rate to a record-low 2.00% from 2.25% on Tuesday. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said the decision came despite some "improved trends in household demand over the past six months and stronger growth in employment" and cited some ongoing weakness in business capital expenditure and public spending.
Elsewhere, China reported a trade surplus of $34.1 billion in April on Friday, below expectations for a surplus of $39.5 billion. Exports slumped 6.4% from a year earlier last month, disappointing expectations for a gain of 2.4%, while imports sank 16.2%, worse than forecasts for a decline of 12.0%.
The slide in imports pointed to persistent weakness in the economy, fuelling speculation policymakers will do more to boost growth.
On Sunday, the People's Bank of China cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 5.10% from 5.35%, in order to spur economic activity and boost growth.
It was the third rate cut in less than six months, indicating that Beijing is becoming more aggressive in supporting the economy as its momentum slows and deflation risks rise.
The Asian nation is Australia's largest trade partner.
In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday's U.S. retail sales report for April, for fresh indications on the strength of the economy and the timing of a U.S. rate increase.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
read more
Over the weekend, the PBoC cut interest rates for the third time in six months. Effective tomorrow, the one-year lending rate will be cut by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.10%, while the one-year deposit rate will also be lowered by 25 bps to 2.25%.
The Australian dollar, however, failed to use this otherwise positive news and was slowly easing instead. During the US session on Monday, the pair was hovering around $0.79, mildly lower on the day.
Traders have been also focusing on US macro figures. On Friday, non-farm payrolls for April showed a 223,000 increase in jobs, below estimates of a 228,000 print. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 5.4% from 5.5% in March. Moreover, month-on-month the average hourly earnings declined to 0.1%, from 0.2% in March, while the yearly change came out at 2.2%, improving from last month's 2.1%.
The report was somewhat positive and kept a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in play, while rates markets imply only an 18.4% chance of rates going higher in September, therefore the event remains underpriced.
Should US macro figures improve in the weeks ahead, the greenback should build bullish momentum again. However, the pair is trading around the four month high and the US dollar bulls have shown no eagerness to push the currency pair lower so far.
According to CFTC and Rabobank research, USD longs fell for the third consecutive week as investors repositioned for a later first Fed rate hike. Although net positioning is still firmly in long territory, USD net longs are at their lowest level since December of last year, while AUD positions jumped sharply back into positive territory on talk that the RBA’s easing cycle may be over.
PBoC policy easing unlikely to provide relief to the AUD
"The PBoC cut its main policy rate by 25bp over the weekend, the third cut in seven months and following the 100bps RRR cut three weeks ago. Our economists expect further easing to be delivered, but looser policy in China is unlikely to feed through to stronger commodity currencies in G10. The Chinese economy is facing some substantial headwinds, which coupled Fed rate hikes later this year, should keep the AUD and the NZD under pressure. We view that AUDUSD appears vulnerable at current levels with the rates market having largely priced out expectations for a further rate cut this year (RBA-watcher McCrann commented over the weekend that the RBA is likely to cut again) and our Positioning Analysis indicating that net AUD positioning is close to neutral levels," analysts at BNP Paribas believe.
read more
The AUDUSD is still very undecided around the 0.7900 zone. We dont see clear entries until it takes a clear direction out of this consolidaion.
AUD/USD: Aussie Firmly Above $0.79 After Data, AAA Rating Boost
Upbeat domestic home sales data and the confirmation of Australia's AAA rating from Fitch extended the overnight gains for AUD/USD, sending the aussie back above the $0.79 handle.
The aussie rose gradually during the Asian session on Tuesday, adding 0.39% to $0.7921.
Australian home loans came in better than expected, scoring a 1.6% increase in March and beating expectations of 1%, while investment lending for homes increased to 6.4% in March from the previous -3.4%.
In addition, Fitch’s confirmation that Australia’s AAA rating is not at risk for now also pushed the AUD/USD pair higher. Furthermore, a recovery seen in oil and gold prices also boosted the resource-linked the currency.
AUD traders will now focus on the Australian Annual Budget release due in the European session.
"Recall that last year’s austerity budget went down like a lead balloon with the public, seeing a collapse in consumer confidence: yet with revenue slumping due to slower growth, unless Mr. Hockey is uncharacteristically willing to countenance an expansion in the fiscal deficit, we might see yet more of the same harsh medicine," Rabobank wrote in a note on Tuesday.
"The silver lining here is that the tighter fiscal policy gets, the more comfortable the RBA will be about cutting again," Rabobank added.
Technical analysis
As the aussie was kicked back below the $0.8000 level as longs were caught holding the bag once again.
The previous uptrend has switched very quickly to a downtrend as AUD/USD retreats from highs of $0.8075 at a fast pace.
Despite the recent mild rebound, we remain bearish as prices reached levels of 38.6% and 50% Fibonacci retracement just a few ticks above $0.8000.
We now see support around the important level of $0.7860-$0.7800, which previously held as a strong resistance.
If prices break this level we will very likely be attacking the previous support one figure lower at $0.77.
source
AUD/USD: Aussie Rally Tops Out at $0.80 Ahead of Key Data
The Australian dollar leapt versus its US peer after bullish home loans data released overnight. Adding some steam into the pair was broad-based dollar weakness ahead of some key releases as the sharp re-pricing in the global bond market resumed in the wake of Friday's US payrolls.
The so-called aussie gained 1.27% on the US dollar, buying $0.7989 on Tuesday after testing the crucial level of $0.80 at one point in the session for the sixth time in the past two weeks.
The pair advanced after fresh data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics released overnight showed consumers took out 1.6% more home loans in March than a month earlier, outstripping expectations for a 1% gain.
"Tonight's budget will be of some interest for the AUD, however the passage of implementation, rather than the policies, is likely to be the bigger influence," researchers at ANZ wrote in their Tuesday morning note.
The fiscal shortfall for the 2015-2016 budget period is expected to be A$35.1 billion, less than the A$41 billion analysts had been predicting after seeing a similarly-sized gap in the 2014-2015 period.
Data ahead
As Australian traders arrive at their desks on Wednesday, they will be greeted by fresh macro-data from the nation's key trading partner.
The Chinese statistical bureau is expected release industrial production numbers for April, with markets hoping to see a 6% increase from the same month a year earlier. Released simultaneously, retail sales in the world's most populous country should climb 10.4% higher in the year through April.
Any miss would fuel speculation that authorities need to do more to underpin the slowing economy. Just this weekend, the People's Bank of China eased monetary policy once more, piling on the stimulus over the past half year.
Later on Wednesday, the US government will release April retail sales figures that will shed more light on the pace of the economy in the second quarter and whether it is rebounding from the weak first trimester.
read more
Aussie rises to 3-1/2 month highs vs. weaker greenback
The Australian dollar rose to three-and-a-half month highs against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, as Wednesday's U.S. retail sales report continued to weigh on the greenback.
AUD/USD hit 0.8164 during early European trade, the pair's highest since January 21; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8123, adding 0.15%.
The pair was likely to find support at 0.7950, Wednesday's low and resistance at 0.8234, the high of January 21.
The greenback remained under pressure after the U.S. Commerce Department said on Wednesday that retail sales were unchanged, compared to expectations for a 0.2% increase.
Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, rose just 0.1%, undershooting forecasts for a 0.5% gain.
The data underlined expectations that the Federal Reserve will delay hiking rates until later in the year, after recent figures showed that the U.S. economy expanded just 0.2% in the first quarter.
The Aussie was lower against the New Zealand dollar, with AUD/NZD dropping 0.65% to 1.0764.
Also Thursday, Statistics New Zealand reported that retail sales increased by 2.7% in the first quarter, exceeding expectations for a 1.5% rise, after a 1.7% gain in the three months to December.
Core retail sales, which exclude automobiles and gas stations, rose 2.9% in the three months to March, beating expectations for a 1.5% gain. The change in core retails for the last quarter of 2014 was revised to a 1.9% increase from a previously estimated 1.5% rise.
A separate report showed that New Zealand's Business Manufacturing Index slipped to 51.8 last month from 54.6 in March, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated reading of 54.5.
read more
AUD/USD: Aussie Waves Goodbye to 4-Mth High as Buck Corrects
The Australian dollar slipped below the $0.81 handle versus the greenback during the US session on Thursday, as traders digested muted US retail sales that led the pair to a four-month high during the Asian trading hours.
The aussie tripped up 0.55% to $0.8064 versus its US peer on Thursday, after climbing to $0.8162 earlier in the session, its highest level since January 21.
The aussie benefited from US retail sales that fell well short of expectations in the last session and weighed on the greenback across the board, with markets assuming the Federal Reserve's rate hike is likely to be put off till later in the year, if not next year, given the recent batch of soft data.
Meanwhile, the latest labor data from the world's leading economy showed that initial jobless claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 264,000 in the week ended May 9, the Department of Labor said in a weekly update on Thursday. The previous seven-day period showed the reading at 265,000.
PPI for April on a yearly basis missed estimates and came out at -1.3%, while the core PPI gauge softened from 0.9% to 0.8%.
"An undertow of USD weakness should limit the near term downside on AUD/USD and NZD/USD that would be otherwise justified by local fundamentals. We look for a resilient week ahead but decline over the month," Westpac economists said on Thursday.
read more
AUD/USD: Aussie Falls in Lockstep With Kiwi
The Australian dollar tracked its New Zealand peer lower on Friday, after New Zealand dairy giant Fonterra announced that they expected lower quantities at future dairy auctions.
The AUD/USD pair fell more than 30 pips to an intraday low of $0.8042 on Friday, before edging back up to $0.8060. The pair closed on Thursday at $0.8075.
The New Zealand dollar fell further than the Australian dollar though, trading down more than 40 pips at its weakest so far on Friday at $0.7452 following Fonterra's announcement.
According to the dairy giant, product quantities up for sale at Fonterra's auctions over the next 12 months are expected to be some 875 MT lower. This is due to "a movement in our supply/demand balance," Fonterra said.
The market for dairy has changed dramatically over the last year and a half, as waning demand from China and an expanding global supply has driven prices down more than 50%.
read more
yeh you are right