LiteForex Analytics - page 94
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USD/CAD: review and forecast
Current trend
Yesterday the US Dollar was losing its positions against the Canadian Dollar. Today attention needs to be paid to macroeconomic statistics from Canada and the US. Data on Building Permits for February is released in Canada at 2:30 pm (GMT+2). A high reading can strengthen the Canadian Dollar. A low reading, on the contrary, can weaken the national currency. Later on, market participant will be following data on Consumer Credit Change for February, due in the US at 9:00 pm (GMT+2).
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands is directed horizontally. The price is moving between the middle and the lower MAs of the indicator.
Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2970, 1.2910.
Resistance levels: 1.3060, 1.3110, 1.3130, 1.3470, 1.3300, 1.3370.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened at the current levels with the target at 1.3000 and stop-loss at 1.3060.
As an alternative, place pending buy orders at the level of 1.3000 with the target at 1.3060.
USD/JPY: technical analysis
USD/JPY, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is correcting up as it has formed four closes below the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is trying to turn up near its strong support in the oversold zone. The Composite is trying to turn up as well.
USD/JPY, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is correcting up towards the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is forming a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite is showing a similar behavior.
Key levels
Support levels: 107.59 (local lows), 107.23 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement for the long-term trend), 104.59 (2000 lows).
Resistance levels: 109.09 (local highs), 109.99 (61.8% retracement for the short-term trend), 110.85 (February lows).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 108.95, 109.75 and stop-loss at 107.55. Validity – 3-4 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 107.10 with the target at 104.89 and stop-loss at 107.82. Validity – 3-4 days.
GBP/USD: review and forecast
Current trend
This week, the Pound continues strengthening against the US Dollar. The pair has gained support amid expectations of relatively favorable statistics on the UK economy. Today the data showed the Consumer Price Index grew by 0.4% in monthly terms against the forecast of 0.3%. In annual terms, the indicator was up by 0.5% while analysts expected it to come in at 0.4%. As a result, the pair gained more than 200 points.
Today market participant will be following data from the US. In particular, Export and Import Prices Indices are due at 2:30 (GMT+2) and the Monthly Budget Statement is released at 8:00 pm (GMT+2).
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the price range of Bollinger Bands is widening. MACD histogram is in the positive zone; its volumes are growing.
Support levels: 1.4255, 1.4225, 1.4176, 1.4140.
Resistance levels: 1.4318, 1.4370, 1.4405, 1.4456.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the level of 1.4318 is broken out with targets at 1.4370, 1.4405 and stop-loss at 1.4290.
Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down and consolidates below the level of 1.4255 with targets at 1.4225, 1.4176 and stop-loss at 1.4282.
USD/CAD: general analysis
Current trend
This week, the USD/CAD pair has been moving down. The downward dynamics has been developing amid expectations of important macroeconomic releases both in the US and Canada which can result in a trend reversal.
In the second half of the day, data on Retail Sales is due in the US. If the favorable forecast is confirmed, the US Dollar will gain support. Later on, the Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision. Precise attention should also be paid to the Rate Statement and the subsequent Press Conference of the Regulator.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is directed down while the price range is widening. The price broken down the lower MA of the indicator suggesting the downward trend is likely to continue. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are growing. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and can turn up in the short run.
According to the indicators, short positions seem more preferable.
Support levels: 1.2636, 1.2552, 1.2279, 1.2133.
Resistance levels: 1.2928, 1.3053, 1.3221, 1.3286, 1.3417, 1.3585, 1.3856, 1.4106.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price breaks out the level of 1.3053 with targets at 1.3221, 1.3286 and stop-loss at 1.2780. Validity – 1-3 days.
Short positions can be opened at the current levels with targets at 1.2636, 1.2552 and stop-loss at 1.3053. Validity – 1-3 days.
AUD/USD: general analysis
Current trend
The data for March showed unemployment in Australia was down by 0.1% to 5.7%. A decline in unemployment rate indicates a favorable situation in the labour market and strengthens the national currency. The indicator of employment change exceeded the forecast and came in at 26.1K that suggests an increase in consumer spending and has a positive impact on economic growth. Amid these favorable statistics, the AUD/USD pair gained 70 points.
Data on Consumer Price Index are due today in the US. If favorable forecast is confirmed, a growth in the pair can slow down.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the upper and the middle MAs of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the positive zone; its volumes are growing. Stochastic is directed up near the border of the overbought zone.
Support levels: 0.7670, 0.7640, 0.7620, 0.7600, 0.7200, 0.7590, 0.7560, 0.7540, 0.7520, 0.7500.
Resistance levels: 0.7700, 0.7710, 0.7720, 0.7740.
Trading tips
After the price consolidates above the level of 0.7700, long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7710 with targets at 0.7750, 0.7800 and stop-loss at 0.7690.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7670 with targets at 0.7640, 0.7620 and stop-loss at 0.7690.
Validity – 2-3 days.
USD/CAD: consolidation near local lows
Current trend
At the end of the week, the Canadian Dollar has been trading mixed against the US Dollar. Having reached new local lows on Wednesday, the pair has started correcting up amid the statements made by the Federal Reserve officials.
The results of the recent Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting had a high impact on the market. However, it should be noted the Canadian currency started strengthening some time after the results were released.
As expected, interest rates were kept unchanged at 0.5% as commodity markets instability affects the process of Canada’s economic recovery. At the same time, the regulator revised up its forecast for 2016 that can be explained by the recent growth in oil prices.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is directed down while the price range is getting narrower. MACD is slightly growing and still keeping its sell signal. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and trying to turn up indicating the possibility of an upward correction in the short term.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.2800, 1.2744 (13 April low), 1.2700 (mid-July 2015 level), 1.2650.
Resistance levels: 1.2857, 1.2897 (14 April high), 1.2952, 1.3000 (11 April level), 1.3037, 1.3100, 1.3180 (7 April high), 1.3218 (5 April high), 1.3300.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price rebounds at the level of 1.2800 (with appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 1.3000 and stop-loss at 1.2740.
Short positions can be opened after the level of 1.2744 is broken down with targets at 1.2650, 1.2600 and stop-loss at 1.2800.
GBP/JPY: general analysis
Current trend
At the beginning of the trading week, the GBP/JPY pair has been correcting amid expectations of important macroeconomic releases.
Data on adjusted merchandise trade balance is due in Japan on Wednesday. Analysts predict the indicator will grow from 242.8 billion to 834.6 billion. Thus, Japan is expected to post a trade surplus of almost 600 billion that will have a positive impact on the economy and the national currency. Moreover, attention needs to be paid to data on unemployment in the UK. An expected decline in the Claimant Count Change will support the country’s economy and strengthen the Pound. If the indicator remains unchanged or grows, the Pound is likely to come under pressure, and the GBP/JPY pair can substantially weaken.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading between the middle and the lower MAs of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and is giving a weak buy signal. Stochastic is falling in the middle of its range.
In general, the indicators are giving a weak sell signal.
Support levels: 151.81, 149.92, 147.93, 145.08.
Resistance levels: 153.45, 155.74, 157.21, 159.34, 162.29, 163.60, 165.40.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 157.21 with targets at 162.29, 163.60 and stop-loss at 153.45. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 151.81 with targets at 147.93, 145.08 and stop-loss at 157.21. Validity – 2-4 days.
XAU/USD: general analysis
Current trend
Despite unsuccessful negotiations in Doha, the price of gold has been growing since the opening of the trading session today. The growth is supported by weak data on the US economy, released last week, and uncertainty over future rate increases in the country. The uncertainty has risen due to recent statement made by the Fed representative William Dudley. Today attention needs to be paid to data on Building Permits for March, published in the US.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands is directed horizontally while the price range is widening. MACD histogram remains in the positive zone and is keeping a weak sell signal. Stochastic is moving in the middle of its range.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1233.23, 1223.81, 1215.29, 1209.17, 1201.53, 1194.97, 1190.38.
Resistance levels: 1248.06, 1256.58, 1261.50, 1267.31, 1278.95, 1282.59.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the level of 1233.23 is broken down with the target at 1209.17 and stop-loss at 1248.06. Validity – 1-3 days.
Long positions can be opened at the current levels with targets at 1256.58, 1261.50 and stop-loss at 1233.23. Validity – 1-3 days.
AUD/USD: review and forecast
Current trend
The pair continues growing amid strengthening in oil prices and the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics in Australia at the beginning of the week. The New Motor Vehicle Sales grew by 2.2% against the previous month that indicates that the consumer confidence is increasing.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the EIA Crude Oil Stocks change in the US. A lower reading could support the pair.
Support and resistance
The pair is consolidating near the level of 0.7820. In the nearest term, the price could decline to the level of 0.7730, but the main upward trend will remain. A trend change would be possible after a price consolidation below the lower border of the ascending channel.
Support levels: 0.7730, 0.7640, 0.7590.
Resistance levels: 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7930.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of 0.7790 с with the target at 0.7735 and stop-loss at 0.7810.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7800 with targets at 0.7850, 0.7900 and stop-loss at 0.7740.
GBP/AUD: general analysis
Current trend
This week, the pair remains under pressure due to weak statistics from the UK and a series of favorable news from Australia. Yesterday morning, data on Claimant Count Change showed a growth by 6.7K while analysts expected the indicator to be down by 10K.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on Retail Sales, due in the UK, and speech given by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands is declining. The pair is trading down in the lower part of the price range. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes are falling. Stochastic is near the 20 mark.
According to the indicators, short positions are more preferable.
Support levels: 1.8265, 1.8094, 1.7841, 1.7737, 1.7175.
Resistance levels: 1.8494, 1.8622, 1.8769, 1.8889, 1.8950, 1.9072, 1.9239, 1.9513, 1.9663.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.8622 with the target at 1.8950 and stop-loss at 1.8494. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.8265 with the target at 1.8094 and stop-loss at 1.8494. Validity – 3-5 days.