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AUD/USD: pair moving sideways
Current trend
This week, the AUD/USD pair has been trading within a sideways range of about 100 points (0.7648-0.7550). At present, the Australian currency gains support from a slow growth in commodity prices (CRB index has been has been growing for two months already). Moreover, RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens in his speech delivered to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission said he has a favorable outlook for Australia’s economy. Economic and financial conditions in the country are improving and the Regulator is experienced enough in dealing with difficulties. Nevertheless, these factors have not given enough support for the pair to strengthen to 0.7700.
Support and resistance
The pair is likely to remain within the range in the short term. Though technical indicators suggest a fall (MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are falling; Stochastic lines are directed downward), the pair can start moving down only if it manages to consolidate below the 38.2% Fibonacci fan line and the level of 0.7535. The level of 0.7665 is seen as the key one for the Bulls.
Support levels: 0.7550, 0.7535, 0.7456 and 0.7391.
Resistance levels: 0.7648, 0.7665, 0.7700 and 0.7770.
Trading tips
At present, positions should be placed within the sideways range. Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 0.7535 with targets at 0.7456, 0.7391 and stop-loss at 0.7580.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7600 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands) with the target at 0.7650. Pending buy orders can be placed above the level of 0.7665 with targets at 0.7700, 0.7770 and stop-loss at 0.7620.
EUR/USD: review and forecast
Current trend
Due to the lack of macroeconomic drivers, the EUR/USD pair is trading within a narrow range of 1.1143-1.1187. Today is the Good Friday holiday in Europe, so market volatility is expected to remain low. Out of macroeconomic statistics, it is worth noting the data on US Gross Domestic Product Annualized and Personal Consumption Expenditures for the fourth quarter. Both indicators are expected to remain unchanged, GDP at 1% and Personal Consumption Expenditures at 0.4%.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands is directed down, suggesting the pair is likely to continue its downward trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are insignificant indicating low trading activity.
Support levels: 1.1143, 1.1093, 1.1056.
Resistance levels: 1.1187, 1.1222, 1.1259.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down and consolidates below the level of 1.1143 with the target at 1.1093 and stop-loss at 1.1163.
Long positions can be opened after the price breaks out and consolidates above the level of 1.1187 with the target at 1.1222 and, possibly, 1.1259 and stop-loss at 1.1170.
EUR/USD: pair is falling
Current trend
Last week, the EUR/USD pair corrected down to new local lows from its six-week highs. The US currency was supported by Fed officials’ statements which has left a more positive impression than the results of the monetary policy meeting did. Moreover, further tightening of US monetary policy seems likelier amid recent macroeconomic publications.
In particular, strong data on US GDP for the fourth quarter was released on Friday. The indicator was revised up to 1.4% from 1.0%.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is trying to turn horizontally while the price range has outlined the borders of a possible sideways channel. MACD is still keeping its downward trend. Stochastic in the oversold zone and trying to turn up suggesting an upward correction is possible in the short term.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.1160, 1.1100, 1.1067 (near 16 March low), 1.1000, 1.0966, 1.0939.
Resistance levels: 1.1200, 1.1246, 1.1300, 1.1342 (17 March high), 1.1376, 1.1400, 1.1459.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened if the price turns up near the level of 1.1160 (with appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 1.1300 and stop-loss at 1.1100. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened is the price breaks down the levels of 1.1150, 1.1100 with the target at 1.1000 and stop-loss at 1.1200. Validity – 2-4 days.
GBP/USD: review and forecast
Current trend
The GBP/USD pair strengthened by more than 100 points on Monday. The pair was supported by macroeconomic data, released in the US. In particular, the PCE price index for February was down to 0.1% from 0.3%, and the indicator of personal income declined from 0.5% to 0.2%. As a result, the pair reached the level of 1.4282 but did not manage to consolidate above it and corrected slightly down.
Out of macroeconomic statistics, which can have an impact on the pair, attention needs to be paid to data on Consumer Confidence and the Fed's Chair Janet Yellen Speech.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands is directed up. At the same time, the price has broken out the upper border of the price range indicating a downward correction can start towards the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, to the level of 1.4162. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are growing.
Support levels: 1.4194, 1.4157, 1.4111, 1.4086.
Resistance levels: 1.4247, 1.4282, 1.4311, 1.4345.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price breaks out and consolidates above the level of 1.4282 with targets at 1.4311, 1.4345 and stop-loss at 1.4261.
Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down the level of 1.4194 with targets at 1.4157, 1.4111 and stop-loss at 1.4221.
EUR/JPY: pair is growing
Current trend
Yesterday the pair strengthened amid Fed Chair Janet Yellen speech, in which she pointed out to the existence of substantial risks to world economy growth and the need to remain cautious with further monetary policy tightening in the US. Her comments significantly pressured the Dollar that allowed the Euro to strengthen.
In addition, the pair was supported by poor data from Japan. In February, the Unemployment Rate grew from 3.2% to 3.3%, while Retail Sales fell by 2.3%.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range is widening. However, the price remains above the upper border of the range. MACD is growing and giving a moderate buy signal. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and trying to turn down.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 126.62 (local low), 126.16, 125.77 (24 March low), 125.00 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 124.22, 123.57, 123.05 (9 March low), 122.45.
Resistance levels: 127.30 (11 and 29 March highs), 128.17 (16 February high), 128.75, 129.13, 129.80 (10 February high), 130.26, 130.63.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout and consolidation above the level of 127.30 with targets at 128.75, 129.00 and stop-loss at 126.60. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 126.60 with the target at 125.00 and stop-loss at 127.50. Validity – 2-4 days.
EUR/USD: general review
Current trend
The pair continues growing amid weakening in the US Dollar.
At the same time, data published by Standard & Poor’s ratings services firm showed that the pace of growth of the eurozone economy could be lower than forecasted 1.8%, and reach only 1.5%. To some extent, this is the result of recent terrorist attacks that substantially decreased tourist trips to the Union, while tourism makes up nearly 10% of the EU GDP.
Support and resistance
Yesterday the pair retested the resistance level at 1.1375 but failed to overcome it again.
The nearest support level is at 1.1244.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1337.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1300 with the target at 1.1247 and stop-loss at 1.1337.
EUR/USD: general analysis
Current trend
The demand for the European currency can largely be explained by uncertainty over future monetary policy in the US. At the press conference on 29 March, the Fed Chair Janet Yellen noted the Regulator plans to increase interest rates gradually due to risks to global economic stability. As a result, the US Dollar came under pressure. One of the key macroeconomic indicators has recently been released in the US. Nonfarm Payrolls for March came in at 215K, down from the previous 242K, while analysts expected a fall to 205K.
Support and resistance
RSI shows the pair is overbought and suggests a correction is possible.
The nearest support level is at 1.1364.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1492.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1364 with the target at 1.1500 and stop-loss at 1.1330.
GBP/USD: back to decline
Current trend
On Friday the GBP/USD pair was moving actively down amid the publication of statistics for March on US labour market. However, it should be noted that the data was quite mixed.
In particular, Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 215K, lower than 245K in February but exceeding the forecast of 205K. Unemployment Rate was up by 0.1% and reached the key level of 5.0% while no changes were expected.
At the same time, ISM Manufacturing PMI grew from 49.5 to 51.8 points against the forecast of 50.7 points. ISM Prices Paid was up to 51.8 from 38.5 points.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart continues its flat dynamics. The price range shows almost no changes and remains wide enough for the current volatility. MACD is falling and keeping a moderate sell signal. Stochastic is moving down in the middle of the range.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.4200, 1.4117, 1.4056 (24 March low), 1.4000 (strong psychological level near early march levels), 1.3914.
Resistance levels: 1.4241, 1.4300, 1.4350, 1.4394 (31 March level), 1.4435, 1.4461 (30 March high), 1.4513 (18 March high).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price breaks out the level of 1.4300 with targets at 1.4435, 1.4461 and stop-loss at 1.4240. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down the level of 1.4200 with targets at 1.4100, 1.4056, 1.4000 and stop-loss at 1.4250, 1.4260. Validity – 2-4 days.
EUR/USD: general analysis
Current trend
Macroeconomic statistics, released in the US last week, had no influence on the EUR/USD pair. However, it should be noted the Labor Force Participation Rate reached 63% which is the highest level since 2014.
Donald Trump, a candidate for US President, believes the US economy is far from recovery. He suggests the real unemployment rate is higher than the official 5%. Moreover, the stock market is growing while corporate profits are falling. If the situation continues to worsen, the Fed can delay its rate increase that will affect the US currency.
Support and resistance
The pair is trading in a sideways channel the lower border of which is at the level of 1.1335 and the upper is at 1.1412.
The nearest support level is at 1.1335.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1412.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1412 with the target at 1.1545 and stop-loss at 1.1350.
AUD/USD: negative dynamics
Current trend
On Tuesday the AUD/USD pair closed with a decline to 29 March afternoon session lows. It should be noted trading activity was high due to numerous important macroeconomic releases.
In the morning session, the pair showed moderate growth after the results of the RBA monetary policy meeting were announced. Analysts’ expectations were confirmed, as the Regulator decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 2%.
However, macroeconomic statistics for February was a bit disappointing. Exports were down by 1% after a 1% growth in the previous month. Imports showed no changes compared with the previous decline of 1%. As a result, Australia’s trade deficit widened from 3156 AUD million to 3410 AUD million. Analysts expected the indicator to be up to -2600 AUD billion.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving sideways while the price range is widening from the bottom. MACD is falling and keeping a relatively strong sell signal. Stochastic is approaching the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 0.7533, 0.7500 (28 April psychological level), 0.7476, 0.7426 (near 16 March low), 0.7400.
Resistance levels: 0.7567 (6 April morning session high), 0.7593, 0.7626, 0.7679 (17 March high), 0.7772 (31 March high), 0.7755, 0.7800.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened if the price breaks out and consolidates above the level of 0.7593 (with appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.7679, 0.7722 and stop-loss at 0.7550. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened if the price breaks down the level of 0.7500 with the target at 0.7400 and stop-loss at 0.7533. Validity – 2-4 days.