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EUR/USD: general review
Current trend
The main news last week was the decision by Greece’s creditors to carry on with the financial help to the country in return for unpopular reforms implementation. The decision removes the last weeks’ uncertainty in Europe and is going to support to the Euro.
On Friday, positive macroeconomic statistics came out in the US. In particular, the Consumer Price index grew by 0.3% for June. The Consumer Price index excluding Food and Energy in June grew by 0.2%, and by 1.8% against the last year. Furthermore, Building Permits came out at 1.343 million, which is well above forecasted 1.104 million permits. The news supported the USD and it substantially grew against the Euro.
This week, the pair opened at 1.0830, only two points above its Friday close. Low volatility is expected to continue throughout the day, as there are no important publications today.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the price is moving towards the lower border of Bollinger Bands, which are facing down and confirming downward trend.
MACD histogram remains in the negative zone just below its signal line, which shows that the downtrend continues but it can reverse in the near future.
Resistance levels: 1.1083, 1.1210.
The nearest support level is at 1.0820.
Trading tips
Open long positions from the level of 1.1085 with the target at 1.1130 and stop-loss at 1.1055.
Short positions can be opened from 1.0815 with the target at 1.0770 and stop-loss at 1.0835.
Brent: general review
Current trend
Brent crude oil is trading near the important support level at 56.25 (0/8 Murray), the breakdown of which would allow the price to fall to 55.20.
According to Moody’s, after sanctions are lifted from Iran, the country can increase its oil output by 1 million barrels a day, which would lead to a fall in prices.
Another factor preventing oil prices from rising is the decision by Saudi Arabia to increase its oil reserves, which in May rose to 300 million barrels. The increase in oil reserve can be a direct result of weak demand on the market.
Support and resistance
The nearest resistance level is 57.03 (1/8 Murray).
Support level: 56.25 (0/8 Murray).
Trading tips
Open short positions after the breakdown of the level of 56.25 with the target at 55.47 and stop-loss at 56.45.
GBP/USD: review and forecast
Current trend
Yesterday, the pair GBP/USD fell and reached 1.5550 but later reversed the course and closed the day at 1.5612.
Economic calendar does not have any important news today. The only publications that may perhaps affect the pair’s movement is the CB Leading Indicators in the US, due at 5 pm (GMT +3). Forecasts predict a slight fall in the USD.
Support and resistance
At present, the pair is moving from the middle MA to top MA of Bollinger Bands. Due to the absence of important news in economic calendar, the upward trend is likely to continue.
Resistance levels: 1.5636 (upper MA of Bollinger Bands on the hourly and 4-hour charts), 1.5647 (local high).
Support levels: 1.5514 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart), 1.5592 (bottom MA of Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart).
Trading tips
Open long positions above the level of 1.5625 with targets at 1.5636, 1.5647.
Short positions can be opened after the breakthrough of the middle MA of Bollinger Bands below the level of 1.5605 with the target at 1.5592.
NZD/USD: influence of Chinese economy slowdown
Current trend
The pair NZD/USD was strengthening yesterday despite an earlier interest rate cut by 25 basis points by the RB of New Zealand. However, today the pair fell from yesterday highs of 0.6695 after the publication of Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China that showed a decrease in index to its 15 months low thus representing a slowdown of the economy.
Amid falling dairy products prices, the economy of New Zealand is suffering losses and the NZD is set to decline in the medium-term. As the USD is strengthening, the NZD/USD pair is going to continue its downward trend started July last year.
Support and resistance
The pair is trading near its 5 years lows and falling towards the support levels at 0.6435 (61.8% Fibonacci), 0.6000 (2006 lows). OsMA and Stochastic on the daily chart remain near the zero line. On the 4-hour, weekly and monthly charts, they signal sales.
Any local strengthening in the pair should be considered as an opportunity to open short positions.
Support levels: 0.6500, 0.6435, 0.6400.
Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6890.
Trading tips
Open short positions from the current levels and from 0.6690, 0.6625, 0.6600 with targets at 0.6550, 0.6500, 0.6450, 0.6435, 0.6400 and stop-loss at 0.6810.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.6890 with targets at 0.6900, 0.6950, 0.7000.
GBP/USD: general analysis
Current trend
The GBP ended last week with the fall to the level seen two week ago. The British currency was affected by UK Retail Sales (-0.2% from 0.3% in last month) and US Initial Jobless Claims statistics (255 K from 281 K earlier). These US positive data confirmed the US interest rates hike which was officially announced last week.
On the contrary, UK budget deficit statistics for last month support the British currency. Due to high tax revenues from individual income and corporate profits the figure was 1.12 billion, which is almost 11 times less year-on-year.
Support and resistance
Currently the pair is trading at the upper border of the downward channel; MA with 100 period is an additional resistance level.
At 3:30 p.m. (GMT +2) Durable Goods Orders statistics are released. Negative data may push the price down significantly.
Support level: 1.5462 (last week low).
Resistance level: 1.5540 (MA with 100 period and the border of the channel).
Trading tips
Open short positions from 1.5529 with the target at 1.5462 and stop-loss at 1.5555 (15 points above the resistance level).
EUR/USD: general analysis
Current trend
Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair was trading within the range of 100 points. The trading day was opened at 1.0951 and by the afternoon the euro rose slightly, but in the evening the downward movement started and, finally, the European currency fell as low as two weeks ago to the level of 1.0878, losing 73 points.
Today, some important macroeconomic statistics may affect the pair dynamics. EU Services PMI and Retail Sales data for June are released. Retail Sales are expected to decrease by 0.2% in June, however, year-on-year growth of 1.9% is observed. The USA publishes its International Trade statistics and Services PMI.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart indicates that the price reached the lower MA and is about to start moving up.
MACD histogram is in the negative zone below its signal line, indicating the downward movement in the short term.
The nearest support level is 1.0811.
The nearest resistance levels are 1.1083 and 1.1125.
Trading tips
Open long positions when the price reaches 1.1085 with the first target at 1.1120 and stop-loss at 1.1055. When the level of 1.1125 is broken through, set the target at 1.1170 and stop-loss at 1.1100.
Open short positions when the price reaches 1.0845 with the target at 1.0815 and stop-loss at 1.0865. When the level of 1.0811 is broken through, set the target at 1.0770 and stop-loss at 1.0835.
EUR/GBP: Bank of England left interest rate unchanged
Current trend
The Bank of England left the key interest rate unchanged at 0.5% and the pair EUR/GBP grew significantly.
However, the prospects for the pair remain gloom. The GDP in the UK in the second quarter grew by 0.7% compared to the previous quarter, or by 2.6% annually. Furthermore, a noticed increase in labor productivity represents a very positive economic factor.
In the report, the Bank of England made it clear that the likeliest time for the interest rate increase is going to be the beginning of 2016. At the same time, the ECB continues with its soft monetary policy.
Thus, in the medium-term the pair continues falling.
Support and resistance
The pair continues falling towards the levels of 0.6900, 0.6600 (2004 and 2007 lows).
OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour chart are turning down. On all other charts, they give sell signals.
Support levels: 0.6940, 0.6920, 0.6900.
Resistance levels: 0.7065 (March and May lows), 0.7100 (���50), 0.7210, 0.7270 (���144), 0.7365 (���200).
Trading tips
Open short positions from the current levels and from 0.7130, 0.7100, 0.7065 with targets at 0.6940, 0.6920, 06900 and stop-loss at 0.7160.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.7210 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.7270, 0.7365, 0.7445.
EUR/GBP: Bank of England left interest rate unchanged
Current trend
The Bank of England left the key interest rate unchanged at 0.5% and the pair EUR/GBP grew significantly.
However, the prospects for the pair remain gloom. The GDP in the UK in the second quarter grew by 0.7% compared to the previous quarter, or by 2.6% annually. Furthermore, a noticed increase in labor productivity represents a very positive economic factor.
In the report, the Bank of England made it clear that the likeliest time for the interest rate increase is going to be the beginning of 2016. At the same time, the ECB continues with its soft monetary policy.
Thus, in the medium-term the pair continues falling.
Support and resistance
The pair continues falling towards the levels of 0.6900, 0.6600 (2004 and 2007 lows).
OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour chart are turning down. On all other charts, they give sell signals.
Support levels: 0.6940, 0.6920, 0.6900.
Resistance levels: 0.7065 (March and May lows), 0.7100 (���50), 0.7210, 0.7270 (���144), 0.7365 (���200).
Trading tips
Open short positions from the current levels and from 0.7130, 0.7100, 0.7065 with targets at 0.6940, 0.6920, 06900 and stop-loss at 0.7160.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.7210 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.7270, 0.7365, 0.7445.
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GBP/USD: review and forecast
Current trend
Since yesterday, the pair GBP/USD remains in the flat after a fall for more than 120 points as the news came out.
Economic calendar for today has plenty of releases. Publications from both the UK and the US are due. News from the UK at 11:30 (GMT +3), according to forecasts, are going to weaken the GBP. However, it is hard to predict how the US release is going to affect the USD.
Support and resistance
At present, the price is near the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, while bands are narrowing down. Such picture represents a formation of the new trend, which could develop in any direction.
Support levels: 1.5483 (bottom MA of Bollinger Bands).
Resistance levels: 1.5550 (upper MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.5620 (local high).
Trading tips
Open long positions above the level of 1.5530, and activate trailing stop above 1.5550.
Alternatively, sell the pair below 1.5500 with the target at 1.5483.