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EURUSD: Euro lack the support Current trend Following the significant decline of European currency against the USD, the pair has started to strengthen, and is now trading in the narrow range of 1.2870 - 1.2970. Eurozone has not demonstrated high economic growth lately, while introduction of the sanctions has intensified the negative impact. Euro is weak and is not able to win back at least some of the losses. Ambiguous data on economic sentiment index was released today. The index in Germany was positive and above the forecast, while the same index in Eurozone fell to the level of 14.2 points. This week the pair can be supported by the results of tomorrow’s meeting of the US FOMC. Support and resistance It is likely that the demand for the American currency will continue to increase. On Wednesday investors expect that the timing of the monetary policy tightening will be specified on Wednesday, which can trigger further rise in the USD. In the medium-term the target is 1.2700. Many analysts believe that the pair can reach the two-year lows at the level of 1.1500-1.1000. Support levels: 1.2910, 1.2860, 1.2750 and 1.2700. Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3030, 1.3100, 1.3190 and 1.3245. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to trade on trend, placing short positions at the current price and pending short positions from the level of 1.3000 (1.3100) with take profit at the level of 1.2700.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
XAU/USD: general analysis Current trend Gold continues to drop against the USD despite minor correction. On Monday, the price of gold had almost reached the 8-month lows and then went up again. The pair has continued to rise on Tuesday and is still moving up today. Investors are waiting for the information from the US Open Market Committee on whether the asset repurchase program will be reduced or not. They would also like to know if interest rates on bonds will be increased. Such decisions may prevent the rise in gold and make investors to search for the alternative assets for investments. In the short term the pair may undergo upward correction. In the long-term the decline in the pair will continue, as the demand for the metal is not high among the Asian buyers; despite the fact that the price of the metal has dropped to the many-months lows. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level is the highs of Tuesday at 1241.70. Support level is the opening price level of this week at 1228.50. Trading tips In the short-term it is recommended to open long positions with take profit at the level of 1241.70 and stop-loss at the level of 1228.50. In the long-term it makes sense to open short positions with the target of 1228.50 and stop-loss at 1241.70. http://www.liteforex.com/uploads/other/9d73e715d35b1e2fba4cba6a4fe8ab76.jpeg"> Igor Shukin Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
NZD/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend The quotes of the pair NZD/USD continue to drop. On Wednesday the price has reached the lows since February at the level of 0.8077. The decline was triggered by the outcome of the FOMC meeting; as it became known the volume of asset purchase will be reduced again, while incentive program will be soon terminated completely, which indicates the strength of the American economy. The meeting participants promised not to raise interest rates for a long time, especially since inflation rate has not yet reached the target of 2%. Today, the New Zealand dollar has won back some of the losses due to the positive statistics on the New Zealand’ GDP. This index amounted to 0.7% in Q2, exceeding the forecast. Attention today shall be also focused on the American real estate market statistics for August, which, as expected, will be weaker than the previous one. This fact can put pressure on the USD. Support and resistance It is likely that in the near future the price of the pair will continue to rise up to the level of 0.8160 (middle line of “Bollinger bands” indicator). After that the price will reverse and go down to the lows of February. Technical indicators show that upward correction will continue. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines have crossed and are rising now. Support levels: 0.8100 and 0.8077. Resistance levels: 0.8160 and 0.8210. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to open long positions at the current price and take profit at 0.8160. Pending orders can be placed at the same level with the target of 0.8100.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: Euro will continue to decline Current trend On Thursday the price of the pair EUR/USD has reached the level of 1.2930 (middle line of Bollinger bands); however, the pair could not consolidate at this level. Today, the pair started to go down. The American dollar was supported by strong data on the American labor market. The number of primary and secondary claims for unemployment benefits has considerably decreased. In addition, Euro is under pressure from some internal and external economic factors. The sum, granted to European banks by ECB as part of the TLTRO program was less than expected, amounting to 82.6 billion euro, which indicates slow development of the real sector of European economy. Investors are still concerned about exchange of sanctions between EU and Russia. Last Friday EU launched another package of restrictions against Russian companies and Russian Federation is considering counter measures. What measures will be like we do not know yet, as well as the damage, which they may bring to the European economy. Support and resistance In the near future the pair is likely to continue to decline to the levels of 1.2810-1.2800. Technical indicators confirm this scenario. Bollinger bands have started to turn downwards. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines have crossed and are directed downwards. Support levels: 1.2850 and 1.2800. Resistance levels: 1.2880, 1.2930 and 1.2975. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions at the current price and take profit at the level of 1.2800.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CAD USD/CAD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from below; current cloud is descending. The pair has entered the cloud, borders of which become support (1.0960) and resistance levels (1.1042).
USD/CAD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, both lines are horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The pair is trying to break through Tenkan-sen line (1.0993), which will serve as support level afterwards. The next obstacle for the price on its way up will be on of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line 1.1092.
Key levels Support levels: 1.0993, 1.0960. Resistance levels: 1.1042, 1.1092. Trading tips On the four-hour chart the pair is trading within the cloud, it is not recommended to open new trades at current price. Pending buy orders can be placed above 1.1042 with targets around 1.1100. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
USD/JPY: either the correction or the rise? Current trend On Monday, the currency pair USD/JPY has corrected after the long-term growth. Probably, this is just a technical correction, which can reach the level of 107.30. However, overall state of the Japanese economy leaves much to be desired. Japanese GDP fell by 1.8% in Q2. Situation with the consumer-price inflation is also very complicated. According to the experts of the Economic Cooperation Organization, target inflation level of 2% will not be reached soon. Therefore, the Bank of Japan will have to apply additional measures of monetary stimulus, which in future will weaken the Japanese currency. In the medium-term, the pair has a potential to grow up. Support to the USD can be provided today by the release of the preliminary PMI in the US manufacturing sector for September. It is expected that the index will rise up to the level of 58.0 points. Support and resistance Technical indicators show that downward correction will continue. Bollinger bands are diverging, which confirms the development of the downtrend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are directed downwards and may change movement direction in the near future. Support levels: 108.30 and 107.30. Resistance levels: 108.80, 109.20 and 109.50. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions with the target of 107.30 if the price consolidates below the level of 108.30. Long positions can be opened in case of breakdown of the level of 108.90 with the first target of 109.20 and the next target of 109.50.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
XAG/USD: technical analysis XAG/USD, H4 On the four-hour chart the pair XAG/USD is trading within a narrow channel. The pair has almost reached the lowest level this year at 17.33. Meanwhile, the price has hit the lower MA of Bollinger Bands, now it can bounce off and return to the middle MA at 17.76. Then the pair will probably go down to the level of 17.55. Downward trend is confirmed by both Stochastic lines, which are directed downwards, and MACD histogram, which is in negative zone.
XAG/USD, D1 On the daily chart the pair is trading within a downward channel. After small correction to the level of 17.78 the pair continues to follow Bearish trend. Bollinger bands are directed downwards promising a decline towards 17.45. MACD histogram is in negative zone, its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines have crossed and turned up.
Key levels Support levels: 17.33, 17.70, 17.55 Resistance levels: 17.76, 17.84, 18.39. Trading tips The situation is controversial. On the four-hour chart the price is in a sideways channel, however on the daily chart we can see a development of the downward trend. Sell positions can be opened below 17.70 with targets at 17.55 and 17.45. Buy orders can be placed above 17.76 with take-profits at 18.05. Andrey Cherkas Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: the pair can undergo correction Current trend On Wednesday the pair GBP/USD has lost 100 points, falling to resistance level of 1.6290 (lower line of Bollinger bands); however the pair failed to consolidate below this level. The USD was supported by the data on the US real estate market: volume of the new houses sales has increased by 18.0% in August, which was above the forecast (504 thousand houses). Today, the pair may undergo correction several times. American statistics on the number of orders for durable goods is expected to be poor, which will put strong pressure on the British currency. In addition, the head of the Bank of England will give a speech today, which can add dynamics to the pair. Support and resistance In the near future the pair may undergo correction to the level of 1.6360 (middle line of Bollinger bands). If the price consolidates above this level, next target of the “bulls” will be 1.6410. However, it is likely that the price will reverse at the level of 1.6360 and go to down to the levels of 1.6290, 1.6250 and 1.6200. Technical indicators demonstrate mixed signals. Bollinger bands seem to diverge, indicating the formation of the downtrend. MACD histogram has moved to the negative zone; however this breakout can be false. Stochastic lines on the contrary, have crossed, and are leaving oversold zone now, forming a buy signal. Support levels: 1.6290, 1.6250 and 1.6200. Resistance levels: 1.6360 and 1.6410. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to open short- term long positions at the current price with the target of 1.6360. Pending orders to sell can be opened at the level of 1.6360. If the price consolidates below the level of 1.6290, it makes sense to open short positions with the target of 1.6200.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: breakdown of last year lows will push the pair down Current trend European currency continues to fall due to the negative stats on EU economic system. The last nail in the coffin was IFO indices, which were even lower than predicted. The pair EUR/USD has broken down the support level of 1.2820 and reached last year lows, but then was corrected to the level of 1.2750. Today investors are waiting for the US GDP data and ССI publications. However, even weak US data won't help Euro. Support and resistance The decrease under lows of November 2012 will allow the pair to go further down to the levels of 1.2400, 1.2300. The latter doesn't seem so incredible now. Some experts predict that in 2015 one Euro will cost $1. Support levels : 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2300, 1.2200. Resistance levels: 1.2750, 1.2820, 1.2910, 1.3000, 1.3030, 1.3100, 1.3190. Trading tips It is hard to tell whether the pair breaks down support levels of turn up. Pending sell orders should be placed below 1.2660 with targets at 1.2300. Long trades can also be open with short stop-loss at 1.2660 and take-profit at 1.3000.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Brent: general review Current trend Yesterday, the price of the crude oil Brent had traded in the narrow channel of 96.42-97.45. Low price level is maintained due to several factors. Last Thursday State Oil Corporation of Libya National Oil Corporation increased production of oil to 925 thousand barrels per day. Member of the OPEC gradually returns to the market after one year absence caused by the complicated political situation. Another factor, which puts pressure on the oil price - is the investors’ concern associated with the decrease in oil consumption in two largest world markets: China and Europe. Support and resistance Support levels: 95.59 (lows of 24 September) and 95.00, 94.00 (important psychological level). Resistance levels: 97.45 (yesterday’s highs), 98.72 (moving average with the period of 21 days), 100.30 (Fibonacci retracement of 23.6%). Trading tips After the consolidation of the price above the level of 97.45, next targets will be the levels of 98.72 and 100.00. If downtrend continues and the level of 95.59 will be broken down, next target will be the level of 94.00.
Andrey Cherkas Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited