Eur/usd - page 446

 

Yesterday EURUSD rallied with a wide range and closed near the high of the day, in addition managed to close above the previous day high, suggesting a strong bullish momentum.

 

The pair is trading above the 10, 50 and 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic supports.

 

The key levels to watch are: A daily resistance at 1.1556, other daily resistance at 1.1460, the 50-day moving average at 1.1301 (support) and a daily support at 1.1237.

 
The EUR/USD lost around 100 pips in today's session. Traders and investors were drawn again in the US dollar and the pair marked a low of 1.1306. Main trend on the short-term is yet to be determined.
 
ECB's Jazbec says no need for new stimulus "at this juncture"


Slovenian CB governor in an interview reported by Bloomberg 10 June 2016

  • current stimulus measures obviously work
  • sees growth slowly picking up in Eurozone
  • sees Brexit, refuge crisis and Greece curbing investment
  • sees moderate inflation impulses in Eurozone
  • forecasts show inflation near goal in 2018
  • ECB tools would be more efficient with better policy mix
  • too early to make decision on Greek waiver

Jazbec in relatively upbeat mood albeit with the "We can't do it all by ourselves" central bank mantra.

Meanwhile EURUSD still trawling around 1.1300 EURGBP 0.7816 EURJPY 120.95

 

Yesterday EURUSD plunged with a wide range, making a bearish engulfing pattern and closed near the low of the day, in addition managed to close below the previous day low, suggesting a strong bearish momentum.

 

The pair is trading above the 10, 50 and 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic supports.

 

The key levels to watch are: A daily resistance at 1.1556, other daily resistance at 1.1460, the 50-day moving average at 1.1300 (support), the 10-day moving average at 1.1276 and a daily support at 1.1237.
 

EURUSD held a trend-line off the December low just prior to the US jobs report

Paul Rosenberg, Market Analyst at www.economiccalendar.com, on USD

Last Friday, the non-farm payrolls data smashed expectations and sent the US Dollar 1% lower. Will the US Dollar see a re-covery this or next week or not? Why?

Not only did the worst NFP figure since September 2010 send rate hike expectations to virtually zero for June, but Yellen further diminished expectations for a rate hike in the immediate future in her speech on Monday. At this time, December is look-ing like the next likely window of opportunity for the Fed to raise rates, but a lot can happen between now and then. The US dollar should remain under pressure in the short-term (1-2 weeks) and the case is building for broad Dollar weakness to persist for the next several months or longer.

What should a trader focus on this summer in order to successfully trade the US Dollar and where could we see EUR/USD by the end of June?

With the Fed side-lined for the foreseeable future and the ECB in 'wait-and-see' mode, a convergence in monetary policy is in progress. This provides a favourable backdrop for the Euro over the coming weeks. On a technical note, the EUR/USD held a trend-line off the December low just prior to the burst higher on the poor US jobs report. The upward trend off that important low coupled with the convergence dynamic previously mentioned suggests an advance to $1.17/18 in the next few weeks.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Pair Strongly Supported, Buy on Dips


The EUR/USD major currency pair has been declining for the last 2 days, supported strongly by the 200-hour moving average of $1.1270.

The EUR/USD major currency pair has retreated from lows somewhat, and is trading above the $1.1300 level.

The upside potential is seen with immediate resistance at $1.1348, before reaching the next resistance at $1.1400.

The EUR/USD major currency pair support is around $1.1270, with breaks below seen targeting the 21-day moving average of $1.1240 and 100-day moving average of $1.1215.

From the technical point of view, the Relative Strength Index on the 14-day chart is showing bullish divergence.

 

EUR/USD forecast for the week of June 13, 2016

The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but turned right back around to form a resistive candle. With this, looks like we could grind a little bit lower but ultimately we believe that the Euro will probably gain against the US dollar due to the fact that the Federal Reserve is very unlikely to crank up interest-rate hikes in this environment. Yes, there may be one hike, but more than that seems to be very unlikely at this point in time. However, keep your eyes on the EU vote coming out of UK, because that could cause a bit of a problem for the Euro.


 
Bearish on this pair.
 
The euro was down against the US Dollar on Friday. EUR/USD is at 1.1250, shedding 0.58%. The support is now located at the level of 1.1246, the low of Friday's trading, and resistance is likely to make the level of 1.1416 - the maximum of Thursday.
 
The dollar ended the week with a sharp rise against other major currencies, despite the Federal Reserve this summer lowered expectations of growth rates. On Friday, the USD index, showing the US dollar against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.65%. The index finished the week higher by 0.56%. On Friday, the EUR/USD pair finished trading at 1.1251, jumped 0.57% on the day, but losses for the week amounted to 1.02%.