Eur/usd - page 395
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The single currency recorded a second consecutive decline against the dollar on Monday. The euro justified the negative expectations and threw the pair downwards. As a result, both supports at 1.1191 and 1.1146 were broken. If bearish sentiment continue, currencies may test the next key level at 1.1085. The new week started at a price of 1.1238 as the euro retreated in the early hours of trading. Bottom of the day was hit at 1.1127 and the session closed with 25 pips higher.
German Investor Morale Freezes to 16-Mth Low in Feb: ZEW Investor sentiment in Germany soured for the second straight month in February, a survey said on Tuesday, with the respective gauge, however, slightly exceeding estimates.
The widely watched Investor Confidence Index calculated by the ZEW Economic Institute came in at 1.0 point in the second month of the year from January's 10.2 points.
Economic desks had anticipated a steeper downturn to 0.0.
That is the lowest since October 2014, when it had hit minus 3.6.
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in my view, above 1.11, the outlook is still bullish, while a break below can add technical selling pressure
EUR: Worries about European financial system overdone - Goldman Sachs Banks better capitalized, no liquidity issues
Credit market indicators of European systemic risk appear to have inflected as well. Since widening last week to levels not seen since the Euro crisis in 2011-2012, the cost of credit protection as measured by the iTraxx index for European Senior Financials fell by 8bp for the second day in a row (to a spread of 123bp from 139bp last Thursday).
In our view, the repricing of systemic risk was overdone (and the rally has further to run). Owing to higher capital levels for banks as well as the new backstop facilities such as the LTRO, T-LTRO and ELA, we do not think the recent capital-raising pressures on banks are likely to cause the sort of short-term funding pressures they caused during the European sovereign crisis.
...For one, banks are better capitalized, and have far better access to liquidity and short-term funding. Consistent with this view, the recent pressures on bank credit spreads are not particularly visible in the availability or pricing of short-term funding spreads. Rather, the repricing is primarily visible in equities, capital securities and senior bonds. In other words, we have seen an increase in the cost of long-term capital, including a repricing of senior credit risk, but with confidence that banks have access to short-term funding. Pressures on long-term capital costs are evidently rising, but the secure access to short-term funding renders these pressures less systemic.
A second reason for pushing back on systemic fear goes to the source of these concerns in the first place, namely, growth.We think the growth outlook is better than many market participants appear to believe, and in contrast to those who think recession is imminent, our estimates of the year-ahead risk are only slightly higher than average (in a range of 15-20%; We therefore think that the recent rally in yields will struggle to sustain itself. Indeed, our economic surprise ('MAP') index for the US has been rising for most of 2016, and we think rising wages can sustain consumption growth and housing demand while a more expansionary fiscal policy and favorable inventory cycle should outweigh global headwinds.
source
Second day for the 1.1125 resist the eur/usd declining, but i think that it will not last for so long as the US dollar strengthen against the majors.
EUR/USD started to lose steam around the support levels. we might see another rebound from this level
The euro recorded insignificant decline against the dollar on Tuesday. The session was calm, with no sharp changes. Session started at the level of 1.1152 and closed with only 10 pips below. The difference between the highest and lowest value for the day was also small - 67 pips. If the single currency justify positive expectations in the short term resistance at 1.1387 will be broken soon.
Yesterday the EURUSD fell with a narrow range and closed near the low of the day, however managed to close within the previous day range, suggesting a weak bearish momentum.
The pair is trading below the 10-day moving average however is still trading above the 50 and the 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic support.
The key levels to watch are: The daily resistances at at 1.1460, other daily resistance at 1.1237, the 10-day moving average at 1.1217 (resistance), a daily support at 1.1097, and the 200-day moving average at 1.1025 (support).
EUR/USD: Greenback Eases from Daily Highs US dollar eases from its intraday high, boosted by data before.US housing starts for January decelerated to 1,099K from 1,143K previously, which represents 3.8% decline. In addition, building permits ticked lower to 1,202K from 1,204K in December, booking a 0.2% monthly loss.
The regional breakdown showed outsized drops in the Northeast and the Midwest, which were areas that saw heavy snowfall last month. However, starts were also weaker in the South and the Midwest.
Furthermore, PPI on a monthly basis notably improved from -0.2% to 0.1% in January, with the yearly change accelerating to -0.2% from -1.0% previously. The core measure remained in positive territory in January.
The greenback stayed marginally stronger after the figures and the EUR/USD pair was trading around $1.1120.
Later in the day, capacity utilization rose to 77.1% and industrial production for January reached 0.9% increase, but the data did not spur any major movements on the pair.
Moreover, the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the latest meeting will be published and might offer some insight into how the Federal Reserve (Fed) "felt" back in January, when it left rates unchanged. Volatility will most likely be elevated after the release.
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The EUR/USD getting mush support over the 1.1100 this week so it is going to find it is way to rise just matter of time as i see.