Eur/usd - page 328
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Level 1.1500 holds - but just
Yesterday the currency rallied with a wide range day after the Fed left the rates unchanged and closed in the green near the high of the day, well above the 10-day moving average.
Today the pair may consolidate as we go in to the weekend as the market digests Yesterdays FOMC meeting.
The key levels to watch today are 1.1495 (Resistance), 1.1556 (Resistance) and 1.1237 (Support), 1.1373 (Support).
On Thursday session EUR recovered positions against USD. The single currency justified the positive expectations and rose, thanks to the dynamic economic environment in the US. So negative series was interrupted and EUR is looking forward for the continuation of the bullish trend until reaching the resistance at 1.1430. The session started at 1.1287 and by the end of the session EUR gained 146 pips. A powerful upward movement was registered at the end of trade and the peak for the day was hit at 1.1440.
EUR/USD: Pair Dives Below $1.1400 as Traders Evaluate Fed
The greenback pared its earlier losses against the euro currency on Friday, pushing the EUR/USD cross lower from its four week high of $1.1460 seen during the European market hours.
Nevertheless, volatility has remained elevated over the last two days after the Federal Reserve (Fed) storm yesterday. Initially, the US central bank harmed the greenback by keeping interest rates at a record low in September. Moreover, Fed Chair Janet Yellen rather clearly pointed out the potential threats, while sticking to the data dependent mode which kept the odds for a 2015 hike still alive.
"The interesting bit about it was the fact that she was quite so explicit in terms of laying out exactly why they weren't doing anything," Bank of New York Mellon head of currency research Simon Derrick said. "Yes, they talked about inflation quite clearly, but front and center were concerns about what was happening in China, and more generally for emerging markets."
On Friday, the EUR/USD was trading with a loss of 0.67% at $1.1353, while the US dollar index added 0.15% to 94.77, bouncing from the lowest level since August 27 at 94.20 points.
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EUR/USD dropped back to the open price of yesterday the market is stabilizing .
Euro completes the round trip in fall to 1.1300
Post-FOMC gains erasedThe dollar is surging toward the end of the week as stocks take a beating. After the euro fell below the 61.8% retracement, I warned of a decline to 1.1300 and it came in a rout to 1.1290 as big moves continue right into the weekend.
EUR/USD: The Euro's Japanification - SocGen
"Eurozone current account data for July show a sharp increase in net accumulation of foreign assets which is cementing the Euro’s status as a ‘carry currency’ that correlates with risk sentiment.
Willingness to re-cycle a gargantuan current account surplus will keep the Euro relatively soft when markets are buoyant, but periods of sharp Euro appreciation, are likely when investors are nervous.
None of this is necessarily going to tell us where the Euro is heading, but it does show how it is ECB policy that drives the Euro down, while periods of risk aversion can send it up.
The correlation between EUR/USD and relative EU/US short rates has weakened and the correlation with risk aversion measures like VIX has either fallen or changed sign."
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EUR/USD forecast for the week of September 21, 2015
The EUR/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, or a fairly neutral candle. The 1.15 level above should continue to be rather resistive though, so it is not until we break out above there that we would consider buying this market from a longer-term perspective. The lows are getting higher though, so we think it will happen given enough time. The meantime though, we are simply sitting on the sidelines and waiting for the opportunity to break out and start going long as the Federal Reserve has failed to raise interest rates.
source
EUR/USD weekly outlook: September 21 - 25
The euro fell sharply against the dollar on Friday as the greenback rebounded following steep losses in the previous session after the Federal Reserve’s decision not to hike interest rates.
EUR/USD was down 1.19% to 1.1298 late Friday, after hitting a three-week high of 1.1459 overnight.
The greenback sold off sharply after the U.S. central bank left short-term interest rates unchanged on Thursday, amid concerns over soft inflation and the effects of recent market volatility on the U.S. economy.
The Fed said it wanted to see "some further improvement in the labor market," and be "reasonably confident" that inflation will increase before hiking rates.
While the decision was not completely unexpected the Fed’s concerns over the uncertain outlook for global growth rattled financial markets and pressured the dollar lower.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.78% to 95.36 late Friday after falling as low as 94.19 in early trade. The index ended the week 0.2% lower.
In the week ahead, investors will be turning their attention to Wednesday’s index of manufacturing activity from China and surveys on private sector activity from the euro zone for a fresh indication on the strength of the global economy.
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