Eur/usd - page 256
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No deal - Euro rises. What else should it do
EUR/USD is trading in the range of 1.08 between the support level 1.0820 and resistance 1.0900.
thank you very much
EU Preview: Doing 'Everything' to Prevent Greek Default
Despite the bruising tryst with his euro zone peers in Riga on Friday, Greece's Finance Minister Varoufakis remains convinced that a deal between Athens and the "institutions" will be reached in time to prevent Greece defaulting on its massive debts.
"The gambler" and "amateur," as the Greek minister was called by his European colleagues, concedes that there are still differences to be smoothed out and gaps to be filled, but he is firm in his belief that the deal "will happen and will happen quickly as it’s the only option we have."
"We look at the last few weeks and what we see is convergence," Varoufakis said on Friday.
Even so, everybody else seems to be extremely unhappy with Greece, while urging fast progress at the same time.
"I demand very urgently that we get results on the table," Austrian Finance Minister Hans Joerg Schelling insisted in Riga. But then he added a few words showing that Varoufakis's colleagues feel bypassed by Greek officials, especially by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's Thursday meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and his direct appeal for her help.
"If you follow the media of the past days you hear time and again that 'Tsipras says' and 'Tsipras thinks', so apparently this has been moved to leaders' level," a frustrated Schelling complained.
Getting there
What a difference between "constructive and positive" talks, the German Chancellor told reporters after her meeting with Prime Minister Tsipras on Thursday, while saying that "everything must be undertaken to prevent" Greece from defaulting on its debts.
Apart from that, one important result for Greece has been agreed: a lower budget surplus target. Before debt payments, Athens would now aim for a primary budget surplus of 1.2 to 1.5% of GDP this year, far below the earlier goals of 3% in 2015 and 4.5% in 2016 as set in Greece's bailout program from 2012.
"Time is running out as the president of the Eurogroup said, and speed is of the essence," Eurogroup Chair Jeroen Dijsselbloem said after the Riga meeting, warning that it is very hard to prepare a new program for Greece to fund its needs beyond June, considering the lack of overall progress. At the same time, he ruled out giving Greece a part of the €7.2 billion of the outstanding bailout money frozen until reforms for Greece are agreed.
As a result, we are likely going to see more claims and counter-claims in the week ahead, more bickering and hammering and nervous market reaction.
Greece is ready to make "big compromises" to reach a deal, Varoufakis said on Friday afternoon.
"We want an agreement and we are willing to make compromises to achieve this," the embattled Greek finance minister told reporters. "The cost of not having a solution would be huge for all of us, Greece and the euro zone."
Europe may be getting there. Slowly.
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EUR/USD forecast for the week of April 27, 2015
The EUR/USD pair initially fell during the course of the week but found enough support to turn things back around and form a hammer. However, we recognize that the 1.10 level above is still resistive, so therefore it’s difficult to take a longer-term trade. In fact, we are comfortable with longer-term trades until we are well above the 1.15 level, which is something that we are obviously not going to see anytime soon. With that, we remain on the sidelines as far as long-term trades are concerned, but will pay attention to the shorter-term daily chart.
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EUR/USD Forecast Apr. 27 – May 1
EUR/USD had a choppy week, feeling some pressure but not falling too far. Inflation data stands out just before the May 1st holiday. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Greek headlines drifted between deteriorating conditions and Grexit talk to optimism or at least a deadline delay. This had a growing impact on the common currency. For a change, most euro-zone figures fell short of expectations and that also took its toll. In the US, data began looking better, with existing home sales beating expectations. But it’s far from looking rosy and as the week advanced, the dollar was hit by weak data. All in all, it’s a mixed picture with quite a lot of action.
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EUR/USD weekly outlook: April 27- May 1
The euro gained ground against the broadly weaker dollar on Friday as weak U.S. data added to concerns over the outlook for the recovery, curbing expectations for higher interest rates.
EUR/USD was up 0.48% to 1.0874 in late trade, to end the week with gains of 0.61%.
The dollar weakened after the Commerce Department reported that orders for durable goods, excluding aircraft, fell 0.5% in March, after a downwardly revised 2.2% drop in February.
The headline figure rose 4.0%, beating expectations for a 0.6% gain, but investors focused on underlying weakness in the report.
The data came after recent weak reports on home sales, retail sales and industrial production, adding to signs of a slowdown in economic growth since the start of the year.
The weak data added to pressure on the dollar which has been hit as investors pushed back expectations on the timing of an initial rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was last down to 97.07 late Friday. The index ended the week down 0.62%, its second consecutive monthly decline.
Elsewhere, the euro dipped against the yen, with EUR/JPY at 129.33 in late trade, off two-week highs of 130.10.
The euro slid as concerns over Greece’s debt negotiations continued. Euro area finance ministers said Friday that Greece must present a full economic reform plan by early May in order to access any further funding.
In the week ahead investors will be looking to Wednesday’s Fed statement for clues on the possible timing of a rate increase. Investors will also be focusing on Wednesday’s preliminary reading on U.S. first quarter growth as well as reports on inflation, consumer confidence and manufacturing.
Thursday’s preliminary data on euro zone inflation will also be closely watched.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday as there are no relevant events on this day.
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German import prices March mm +1.0% vs +0.4% exp
More encouraging news on inflation as prices rise mm and yy
EURUSD 1.0872 EURGBP 0.7162 EURJPY 129.33
On Friday the EURUSD initially fell but found enough buying pressure at the 50-day moving average to turn around and close in the green near the high of the day, above of the 50-day moving average. Today we may see may see a pullback toward the 50-day moving average before another move upward. The next key levels to watch in the short-term 1.0925 and mid-term at 1.10345.
Euro gains as Greece revamps bailout negotiating team
The euro climbed to three-weak peaks against the dollar on Monday, on optimism about Greece's prospects after the government reshuffled its bailout negotiating team to forge a deal with lenders about more aid for the cash-strapped country and avoid a default.
Greece looks set to run out of funds in the coming weeks.
On Monday, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras appointed Deputy Foreign Minister Euclid Tsakalotos, an economist well liked by officials representing creditors, as coordinator of the country's bailout negotiating team, giving him a more active role in the negotiations.
That would sideline Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, who had been very active in the Greek negotiating team. The Varoufakis-led team came out empty-handed from Friday's Eurogroup meeting in Riga.
"Tsipras reshuffling the bailout negotiating team has given the euro a bit of a boost," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington.
"There was probably a view that Varoufakis was an obstacle to concessions on the Greece end. At the margin, this increases the hope for some positive developments from the Greece-EU debt negotiations."
In midday trading, the euro rose as high a $1.0907 against the dollar, the highest since April 7. It was last up 0.2 percent at $1.0895.
The dollar index, meanwhile, fell 0.3 percent to 96.680 , a three-week low.
Investors are bracing for a Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting this week. The Fed's decision on Wednesday will help set the tone for the dollar in the near to medium term.
The dollar's searing rally since the summer of last year had slowed following a run of poor U.S. economic numbers, including a softer-than-expected non-farm payrolls report for March. That has cemented expectations for a more gradual pace of interest rate increases by the Fed.
Last week, weak figures for new home sales, weekly jobless claims and business spending undermined the dollar.
"Any sense from the Fed that a rate hike appears on a further horizon could mean a weaker U.S. currency above levels like $1.10 versus the euro," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions in Washington.
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