German Engineering Orders Fall 10% In November: VDMA - General

thenews 2015.01.13 16:12 #2111

German Engineering Orders Drop 10% In November: VDMA

Germany's mechanical engineering industry received less in orders in November compared to the same month a year ago, the VDMA German Engineering Association said on Tuesday.

Incoming orders declined 10 percent year-on-year with domestic demand dropping 9 percent and foreign booking falling 11 percent, the industry group said in Frankfurt.

Meanwhile, orders grew 3 percent year-on-year between September and November, on a three-month comparison. Domestic orders dropped 6 percent, which was offset by a 7 percent growth in foreign demand.

"After five months, incoming orders fell short of the previous year for the first time in November - by as much as a tenth. Orders from euro area partner countries were the only glimmer of hope. Overall, November is to be seen as a setback," VDMA Chief Economist Ralph Wiechers said.

Figures from Destatis showed last week that German factory orders registered a 2.4 percent annual decline in November, marking the first fall in three months. The slump was largely due to a 4.7 percent drop in domestic orders.

Press review Forex News (from InstaForex) EURUSD Technical Analysis 2014,

sherif 2015.01.13 17:53 #2112

The eur/usd failed to make correction and broke the support line 1.1800.

thenews 2015.01.13 22:19 #2113

Euro At 9-Year Low: More To Come?

The euro fell to fresh 9-year lows against the US dollar Tuesday ahead of a key decision by an adviser to the European Court of Justice on the central bank's Outright Market Transaction program. He is set to provide his judgment on whether the ECB overstepped their power when they launched program, responding to complaints out of Germany on the legality of OMT. While the decision is not binding, it could affect the formal decision made by the Court in the middle of this year. It is hard to say whether a negative opinion will be positive or negative for euro. Supporting the legality of OMT would smooth the path to Quantitative Easing but a negative opinion could also hurt the euro by undermining that as well as future programs by the ECB. If OMT is not legal, then QE would be an even greater overstep of the central bank's mandate. Thankfully this is a preliminary decision and therefore not one that will cause immediate turmoil in the markets.

Meanwhile ECB member Nowotny continued to press for a quick decision on QE, calling it a traditional central bank instrument that is sensible with inflation significantly lower than their goal. The prospect of Quantitative Easing has and should continue to keep euro under pressure. The November 2005 low of 1.1640 is a legitimate target for the EUR/USD ahead of next week's central bank meeting and whether the currency pair reaches that level this week hinges on tomorrow's U.S. retail sales report. If consumer spending beats expectations, EUR/USD will extend its slide but if the data misses and there's a good chance it will, EUR/USD will bounce, giving investors an opportunity to sell at higher levels. In the long run, we still see EUR/USD dropping to 1.15. Aside from the OMT judgment, Eurozone industrial production is also scheduled for release and given the decline in German and French production, euro negative news is expected.

Press review Market Condition Evaluation based Forecast for Q1'17 -

Hugo Tiago Teixeira Aboim O Neill 2015.01.14 07:08 #2114

EURUSD fell on yesterday session reaching a new low at 1.1752 but has ultimately failed there again and has since rallied back toward 1.18 handle. This comes after the pair found strong selling at its 10-day moving yesterday. Looking at a technically sound downtrend, though momentum has slowed and this is evident in the form of the mostly sideways channel we have seen since January 7th. This is the most consolidation we have seen since the rally toward 1.26 in mid-December, increasing the odds that we could see a more substantial bullish correction here toward 1.20 or, at least, more sideways consolidation.

Eurusd/gbpusd Press review InstaForex Wave Analysis

thenews 2015.01.14 08:50 #2115

European Court Says ECB Bond-Buying Program Legitimate

It is likely that European Central Bank (ECB) chief Mario Draghi will be looking for some guidance in the court’s interim ruling, and for conditions that could be forced on its QE program.

The advocate general’s office of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) gave a non-binding opinion that the ECB's outright monetary transactions (OMT) program is compatible with the current European Union Treaty and other laws, as long as the central bank does not distort the markets. The advocate general’s opinion carries significant weight.

"In his opinion today, Advocate General Pedro Cruz Villalón observes that the framing and implementation of monetary policy are the exclusive competence of the ECB," the ECJ wrote in the accompanying press release.

The ECJ counsel takes the view that "the objectives of the programme are in principle legitimate and consonant with monetary policy...The ECB must have a broad discretion when framing and implementing the EU’s monetary policy, and the courts must exercise a considerable degree of caution when reviewing the ECB’s activity, since they lack the expertise and experience which the ECB has in this area."

Also, the Advocate General said that "the ECB must give a proper account of the reasons for adopting an unconventional measure such as the OMT programme, identifying clearly and precisely the extraordinary circumstances that justify the measure."

After the preliminary ruling on Wednesday, the issue will subsequently be discussed by ECJ judges for several months before a final ruling is made. The decision does not have direct implications for asset purchases related to the ECB's quantitative easing (QE) plans.

Germany's case

The ECJ gave its preliminary opinion on whether it agrees with the German Constitutional Court’s ruling that the ECB acted beyond its powers.

The case over the legality of the ECB’s multi billion-euro OMT plan was handed over by Germany's court, the first time it has ever deferred to the EU’s highest court.

With German policymakers expressing significant doubts even now about the legality or necessity of any form of monetary easing, the preliminary decision may ease some of their doubts about the ECB bond-buying program.

source

Investors Are Worried That Market View; World Stock Germany's Top Court Gives

thenews 2015.01.14 10:01 #2116

EUR/USD hits fresh 9-year lows after ECJ ruling

The euro fell to fresh nine-year lows against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, after an interim ruling by the European Court of Justice cleared the way for the European Central Bank to implement quantitative easing measures.

EUR/USD hit 1.1727 during European morning trade, the pair's lowest since November 2005 and was last at 1.1759.

The drop in the euro came after the advocate general of the European Court of Justice, Pedro Cruz Villalon, advised judges to approve the ECB's Outright Monetary Transactions program, a measure which was launched in 2012, with conditions.

Villalon said the ECB must avoid any direct involvement in the financial assistance program that applies to the State concerned.

The ruling was seen as giving the ECB leeway at its upcoming policy meeting on January 22, when many expect it to implement full blown QE measures.

Also Wednesday, data showed that euro zone industrial production rose 0.2% in November, in line with expectations, but factory output was down 0.4% on a year-over-year basis.

Meanwhile, oil was hit after the World Bank cut its forecasts for global growth on Tuesday, adding to fears over the faltering economic recovery. Oil prices continued to tumble on Wednesday after falling to almost six year lows in the previous session, after OPEC said it will not cut output despite a global supply glut.

The rout in oil, which has halved in value in six months, has fuelled concerns of exacerbating already low levels of inflation in many major world economies, including the euro zone.

Data last week showed that consumer prices in the euro area fell in December for the first time since October 2009.

The euro fell to five-year lows against the pound, with EUR/GBP hitting lows of 0.7738..

Later in the day, the U.S. was to produce data on retail sales, in addition to reports on import prices and business inventories.

USDCAD news Press review GBPUSD news

bewayopa 2015.01.14 15:14 #2117

EUR/USD fell on reaching the resistance area of 1.1836 (R1), but the drop stopped at 1.1729 (S1) level.

The positive divergence between RSI and price action calls for caution.

The macro trend continues descendent.

R3 - 1.19428

R2 - 1.19009

R1 - 1.18360

Daily Std. Pivot - 1.17941

S1 - 1.17292

S2 - 1.16224

S3 - 1.16224

Any help with pivot FOREX - Trends, Forecasts Pivot indicators

thenews 2015.01.14 17:44 #2118

ECJ Ruling Paves the Way for ECB QE

It’s been a struggle for equities to hold onto any meaningful ground so far in 2015, as crumbling commodity prices puts downward pressure on consumer prices and the disinflationary forces around the globe have investors adjusting their portfolios to increase exposure to fixed income. Adding to the risk-off feel that has been permeating through the global marketplace, the World Bank cut their 2015 global growth forecast, slashing their estimate from 3.4% to 3.0%. As a result of softening economic activity on a global scale, the World Bank expects the Fed to hold off raising rates longer than anticipated, especially when considering the affect falling prices and stagnant wage growth will have on the domestic performance of the United States. The prospect of the Fed delaying the implementation of their rate tightening cycle was echoed yesterday by regional Fed President Kockerlakota, and though he has rotated out of a voting seat in 2015, reiterated he doesn’t favour raising rates in 2015. The overnight Asian session was unable to buck the pessimistic sentiment that engulfed Wall Street’s close, with the Nikkei shedding 1.71% by the closing bell, and USDJPY sliding on yen strength to pivot around the 117 handle.

The big news out of Europe was the ruling on the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions by the European Court of Justice. Recall that last year the German Constitutional Court found the ECB’s OMT incompatible with European law, and presented the issue to the European Court of Justice to rule on. Close to a year later, the ECJ levied its opinion on the program, and found that subject to certain conditions being met, the OMT program was in line with EU law, as long as there is no direct involvement in financial assistance program that applies to state in question. Though the opinion from the ECJ is non-binding at this point, with the final decision being expected by the middle of this year, the advice from the preliminary ruling is usually followed. In addition to the advice of the ECJ, Europe’s top court defended the discretion of the ECB to implement and frame monetary policy, arguing the expertise and experience needs to be respected. While the decision from the ECJ is in respect to the ECB’s OMT program, the preliminary ruling and support of the ECB’s decision making framework paves the way for the implementation of an impending sovereign bond purchase program. The euro slipped on the news of the ECJ decision, dropping into the low 1.17s against the greenback, though EURUSD has since found some buying support that has brought the pair back to unchanged in the high-1.17s.

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