Eur/usd - page 195
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Sideways action in EURUSD during yesterday session, essentially testing the 1.25 handle. The pair continues in a bearish phase, however, we stuck in the middle of the range between 1.24 and 1.25. So the wise thing to do is stay on the sidelines and simply counting down the days to non-farm payroll, which is this Friday.
Euro zone PPI falls 0.4% in October
Producer price inflation in the euro zone fell unexpectedly in October, underlining concerns over the threat of deflation, official data showed on Tuesday.
In a report, Eurostat said that its producer price declined by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in October, compared to expectations for an increase of 0.3%. Producer prices inched up 0.2% in September.
Year-over-year, the producer price index fell at an annualized rate of 1.3% in October, in line with forecasts. Prices fell at a rate of 1.4% in September.
EUR/USD was trading at 1.2433 from around 1.2437 ahead of the release of the data, while EUR/GBP was at 0.7917 from 0.7918 earlier.
Meanwhile, European stock markets remained higher. The DJ Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.35%, France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.5%, Germany's DAX tacked on 0.1%, while London’s FTSE 100 rallied 1.1%.
EUR / USD moved slightly higher yesterday, but the advance was stopped by the falling trend line.
The daily level, the trend remains downward, but given the positive divergence between daily oscillators continue to leave questions about the short-term EURUSD behavior.
R3 - 1.25970
R2 - 1.25515
R1 - 1.25097
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.24642
S1 - 1.24224
S2 - 1.23769
S3 - 1.23351
Oil prices were up Monday and accordingly the reversely correlated US dollar was down apparently not only because of the oily shenanigans but also by rejection of the USD/JPY pair at market open on Sunday night after Japan was downgraded by Moody.
And Mr. Euro took this opportunity as he dances against the US dollar and jumped up.
As I explained last week, a quantitative easing in the euro-zone is still very much on the table at least among the majority of investors. Probably more important than this though is that they will not move forward with it until their other current programs are fully matured have made their way through the ECB’s system. Some ECB members have mentioned that a QE will not occur if other programs balance sheet is back towards the early-2012 levels. Thursday could be seen as the big day, with the ECB announcement which could be a real risk to the strength of Mr. Euro. From a technical point of view, it’s all about that wedge. See my video to check the things more.
I don't think the EUR/USD is moving based on any analysis anymore. maybe it's a normal reaction in the market due to the instability of the economy.
EUR/USD at a fresh 2 year low – dips below double bottom
All that was needed was a small nudge from a weak services PMI in Spain, and we have EUR/USD under the previous low of 1.2357.
The new low is 1.2353. Is it a real break or a false break that will result in a bounce? Update: we have a new low below 1.2350.
Spanish services PMI came out at 52.7 points, significantly worse than 56.2 expected. Spain has been standing out with some growth so far and if this country is slowing, what does it tell us about the bigger ones? On the other hand, it is only the fourth largest economy.
The double bottom is at 1.5357 and so far we are on track to form a triple bottom with this minor dip. But perhaps after this dip, we’ll see a bigger drop soon enough.
The next support line is only at 1.2250, last seen in the summer of 2012. It is followed by 1.2150 and then by 1.2040, the July 2012 low that was followed by the “whatever it takes” statement by Draghi, that reversed everything.
source
EURUSD has found renewed selling interest to start December, possibly driven by much stronger than expected US construction spending (to offset the slow start to the holiday sales season). The long-term downtrend remains firmly bearish but we will wait to establish a new short until key support at 1.2350 is broken to confirm the bearish momentum.
Euro hits 2-year lows vs. dollar ahead of ECB
The euro fell to two year lows against the dollar on Wednesday, as investors looked ahead to the outcome of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting amid heightened expectations for additional stimulus measures.
EUR/USD touched lows of 1.2323, the weakest since August 2012 and was last down 0.37% to 1.2338.
Surveys of business activity across the euro zone on Wednesday indicated that the region would post only marginal economic growth in the fourth quarter.
Research group Markit reported that its composite purchasing managers’ index, which covers the manufacturing and service sectors across the currency bloc, fell to 51.1 last month from 52.1 in October.
“The region is on course to see a mere 0.1% GDP growth in the final quarter of the year, with a strong likelihood of the near-stagnation turning to renewed contraction in the new year unless demand shows signs of reviving,” Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit said.
Germany’s services PMI fell to a 16-month low of 52.1 in November, while the composite PMI dropped to a 17-month low of 51.7 from 53.9 in October.
The French composite PMI dropped to a nine month low of 47.9 from 48.2 in October, well below the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction.
A separate report showed that euro zone retail sales rose by a smaller-than-forecast 0.4% in October and were 1.4% higher on a year-over-year basis.
The weak data added to pressure on the ECB to step up measures to spur growth and combat persistently low levels of inflation in the region.
The annual rate of euro area inflation slowed to a five year low of 0.3% in November, down from 0.4% in October and well below the ECB’s 2% target.
The euro was also weaker against the yen, with EUR/JPY down 0.34% to 147.15.
read more
The PMI of service sector on the EuroZone was revised downwards in November.
The compound PMI fell to its lowest level since June 2013, confirming that the euro area economy lost the momentum which seemed to come gaining.
Weak PMI can mean stagnation and press the ECB to act.
If the ECB on Thursday meeting sends a strong message, it can serve as a catalyst for any increases on EURUSD.
R3 - 1.25450
R2 - 1.25103
R1 - 1.24458
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.24111
S1 - 1.23466
S2 - 1.23119
S3 - 1.22474
I don't know what the ECB will do tomorrow but I hope they will not push the EUR to fall more