Eur/usd - page 142
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The dollar traded unchanged or higher than most G10 counterparts during this European morning.
Appreciated against the SEK, CHF and EUR in this order, while weakened against the NOK.
The dollar was also unchanged from the CAD, AUD, GBP, JPY and NZD.
thank you for the information
Wholesale prices in July 2014: –0.7% on July 2013
As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the selling prices in wholesale trade decreased by 0.7% in July 2014 from the corresponding month of the preceding year. In June 2014 and in May 2014 the annual rates of change were –0.8% and –0.9%, respectively. From June 2014 to July 2014 the index rose by 0.1%.
Euro steady close to 9-month lows vs. dollar
The euro was steady against the dollar on Wednesday, holding above nine-month lows as investors looked ahead to Thursday’s euro zone data on economic growth and inflation.
EUR/USD was at 1.3371, not far from the nine-month lows of 1.3332 reached a week ago.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.3332 and resistance at 1.3400.
The euro fell to lows of 1.3335 on Tuesday after a report showed that investor confidence in Germany, the euro zone’s largest economy, slumped to the lowest level since December 2012 this month.
The ZEW Centre for Economic Research reported that its index of German economic sentiment dropped to 8.6 this month, down from 27.1 in July, due to the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The report indicated that economic growth in Germany will be weaker than expected in 2014.
Investors were looking ahead to Thursday’s preliminary data on second quarter growth in the euro zone, as well as in Germany and France, amid expectations for a weak reading.
The euro zone was also to publish revised data on consumer prices for July on Thursday, with the annual rate of inflation expected to remain unchanged at 0.4%, well below the ECB’s 2% target.
The ECB cut rates to record lows in June in a bid to stave off growing deflationary pressures in the region and concerns over the diverging monetary policy stance between it and its major peers have continued to pressure the single currency lower.
The euro was also steady against the yen, with EUR/JPY at 136.72, staying above Friday’s eight-and-a-half month lows of 135.71.
Elsewhere Wednesday, the dollar was little changed against the yen, with USD/JPY at 102.25.
The yen showed little reaction after official data released earlier showed that Japan’s economy contracted by an annualized 6.8% in the second quarter, as a result of a sales tax increase which came into effect on April 1. Economists had forecast a contraction of 7.1%.
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EUR/USD slides on more weak inflation data
The final CPI numbers for July are beginning to pile up and they don’t paint a bright picture: they either confirm the low initial figures or actually consist of downgrades.
EUR/USD reacts negatively and slides below 1.3350.
France, the euro-zone’s second largest economy, saw a year over year rise of only 0.6% in prices, as initially reported. While it is above the EZ flash number of 0.4%, it isn’t impressive to say the least. The month over month figure was revised to the downside: a drop of 0.3% instead of 0.2% originally reported.
The final inflation numbers for Spain didn’t improve the picture. On the contrary: despite enjoying some growth, the euro-zone’s fourth largest economy is seeing falling prices: consumer prices were confirmed at a y/y drop of 0.3% and the EU norm figure was revised down to a drop of 0.4% from 0.3% originally reported. Pries fell also on a month basis.
Germany confirmed the initial read of +0.8% year over year, also far from the 2% target. However, Germany’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) rose by only 0.1%, contrary to 0.3% expected.
The final CPI number for July for the euro-zone is published tomorrow, together with the GDP numbers for Q2.
Support awaits at 1.3325 followed by 1.3295. Resistance stands at 1.3365.
source
Swiss Economic Expectations Improve In August
Swiss financial market experts' economic expectations for the next six months improved in August, a survey by the Mannheim-based Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) and Credit Suisse showed Wednesday.
The ZEW-CS Indicator climbed by 2.4 points to reach a score of 2.5 in August.
A clear majority of 72.5 percent of the financial analysts expects no change of the prevailing good economic environment in Switzerland over the next six months, the survey found. The outcome is largely unchanged from the previous surveys.
The current conditions index of the survey fell to 45 in August from 57.1 points in June. This was due to some analysts who changed their assessment of the economic situation from "good" to "normal".
"Overall, the share of analysts, who judge the economic environment to be "good", amounts to 47.5 percent and is therefore above its long-term average of 40 percent," ZEW said.
the doji today makes me sure of the support line and we might see a change on the trend soon
Will EZ GDP Crush The Euro?
Will EZ GDP Crush the Euro?
Since the beginning of the month, the euro fluctuated within a relatively narrow 112 pip trading range and during this time, the bottom of the range has been tested on four occasions. The 1.3333 low held each time, but if Thursday’s Eurozone GDP report shows that the region as a whole contracted in the second quarter, this support level could finally be broken. Normally GDP numbers are not big market movers because they are stale and backwards looking but this quarter’s release comes off the heels of a dovish central bank who expressed specific concerns about growth. A decline in Eurozone GDP growth would reinforce the ECB’s worries and widen the gap between Eurozone and U.S. rates. We already know that Italy fell into a recession in the second quarter and while growth in Spain accelerated, the problems are moving north. The Eurozone GDP report would not be so bad for the euro if the region expanded even a little and German GDP growth stayed positive. However the euro will be crushed if there is a contraction for either the Eurozone or its largest economy. If 1.3300 is broken, there is no major support until 1.3190. With short positions at 2-year highs, if GDP surprises to the upside, we could see a very strong rally that could take EUR/USD as high as 1.35 but the odds still favor a softer release.
USD: Weak Retail Sales Leaves Fed Comfortable Dovish
Wednesday’s anemic consumer spending report and this month’s disappointing non-farm payrolls release leaves Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen comfortably dovish. We know that the central bank is reluctant to tighten monetary policy early and the latest U.S. economic report hardens their resolve to leave rates on hold for a long period of time after Quantitative Easing ends. At this stage, we do not expect any clarification on the direction of U.S. monetary policy at next week’s Jackson Hole Summit. If we are lucky the next NFP and retail sales reports (both of which are scheduled for release before the September 17th FOMC meeting) will show an improvement, giving policymakers some confidence to provide hints on when rates could rise but if more weakness is seen, we will hear nothing but reluctance from the central bank. U.S. yields dropped to a fresh 1-year low on the prospect of a long period of low rates. The dollar, on the other hand, traded higher against the Japanese Yen and moved in an inconsistent direction against other currencies. For the most part, the market’s appetite for U.S. Treasuries and equities keeps demand for dollars intact. While the pace of U.S. growth leaves a lot to be desired, the outlook for the U.S. economy is still brighter than the Eurozone and other parts of the world. Eventually the downtrend in U.S. yields will come to an end but its not over until it is over.
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German GDP -0.2% vs. -0.1% forecast
Germany’s gross domestic product fell more-than-expected in the last quarter, preliminary official data showed on Thursday.
In a report, Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland said that German GDP fell to a seasonally adjusted -0.2%, from 0.7% in the preceding quarter whose figure was revised down from 0.8%.
Analysts had expected German GDP to fall -0.1% in the last quarter.
Euro zone economy unexpectedly fails to grow in second quarter
The euro zone’s economy failed to grow in the second quarter, underlining concerns over the region’s economic outlook, official preliminary data showed on Thursday.
In a report, Eurostat said that the euro zone’s gross domestic product was flat in the three months to June, below expectations for growth of 0.1%. The euro zone’s economy grew 0.2% in the preceding quarter.
Year-on-year, euro zone GDP increased at an annualized pace of 0.7% compared to a year earlier, in line with expectations and after expanding at a rate of 0.9% in the first quarter.
Following the release of the data, the euro turned higher against the U.S. dollar, with EUR/USD rising 0.04% to trade at 1.3369, compared to 1.3359 ahead of the data.
Meanwhile, European stock markets remained mixed. The DJ Euro Stoxx 50 declined 0.7%, France’s CAC 40 dipped 0.45%, London’s FTSE 100 inched up 0.15%, while Germany's DAX slumped 0.4%.