Eur/usd - page 287

 

The suspense is strong.

 

All day long EUR/USD continue to trade around the opening price. 1.1200 seems to be a strong resistance point.

 

German import price index May -0.2% vs +0.2% exp

+0.6% prev

  • yy -0.8% vs -0.4% exp vs -0.6% prev

Softer reading will be a concern for inflation growth but euro not fazed

 

Yesterday the EURUSD moved back and forward as fundamental news from Greece hit the wire. The currency closed in the red near the open of the day creating a doji pattern but managed to stay above the 50-day moving average. Today may be a do or die for Greece as the three day EU summit ends on Saturday but we may get a glimpse of the Greece negotiations at the press conference scheduled later today at 13:00 (GMT).

 

The pair continues to fluctuate in the range 1.1150-1.1230. Possible breakthrough of the upper limit of the range, which would open the way to important resistance around 1.1430.

 

Euro crashes to session lows

Woosh.No headlines behind the latest drop. It hit right at the top of the hour so it might have been someone trying to get out of euro ahead of the weekend.

The euro chart isn't pretty.

 

EUR/USD forecast for the week of June 29, 2015

The EUR/USD pair fell pretty steeply during the course of the week, but as you can see there is an uptrend line that sits just below current trading. We believe that this market will have buyers below, and on top of that there is a significant amount of support at the 1.10 level. We have no interest in selling this market at least not yet, as there is such support below.

We have a red line at the 1.15 level, and if we can get above there we feel that this is more or less going to be a “buy-and-hold” type of market. But with all of the problems with Greek debt talks going on at the moment, the markets are a bit jittery and it is going to be difficult to trade this particular currency pair for any real length of time. However, once we get that announcement that almost surely will include the Greeks pain back the debt some way, somehow, the buyers will more than likely step back into this market. We do anticipate seen this market break out to the upside and above the 1.15 level, but we may have to build up a bit of momentum in the meantime.

Further compounding things is the fact that the longer-term outlook for this currency pair is a bit questionable as we don’t exactly know what the Federal Reserve is going to do, but truthfully we don’t believe that the Federal Reserve knows what is going to do either. With that being the case, we believe that sooner or later nerves get call and the Euro continues to rise. European indices are starting to look fairly healthy all of a sudden, so we believe that it’s only a matter time before all European asset start to get bought. If you look at the Greek bond markets, they were fairly healthy during the past week, and that suggests that bond traders believe that the Greeks are going to work something out, which of course would be good for the currency overall. However, we think it’s going to be a short-term traders market in the meantime.

 

Greece calls referendum on rejected proposals – EUR could go wild on this mess

The Greek crisis just got another dimension: in a dramatic speech, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras announced a referendum on the latest EU proposals which he just rejected. It will be held on July 5th, after the June 30th deadline. He asked the institutions (formerly known as the troika) for a temporary extension of a few days. The Eurogroup was planned to meet on Saturday at 12:00 GMT, but the Greek parliament convenes at 9:00 to vote on the referendum law to parliament.

There are less than 48 hours until markets open, and if nothing changes, it is going to be very messy. Some brokers are already getting ready as we’ve learned already before the dramatic announcement.

Tsipras flew back from Brussels to Athens to discuss the latest proposals. These proposals had not really received an applause from all creditors. Perhaps the IMF and others are actually against it.

This is what Tsipras said to his people:

We have been presented with an ultimatum, and it is the historic responsibility of our country and people to answer this ultimatum.

There was talk about a concession on pensions and VAT, but only a 5 month extension and no debt relief. Tsipras says the offers violate European values.

Some commentators see it as a vote on the euro or the drachma. It is still to be seen if this is a bold move or a wild gamble. Is it a negotiation tactic? It will be interesting to hear the reactions from the three creditors.

As an immediate step, they could withdraw the proposal and cancel the Eurogroup meeting. It’s a chance for them to move away from a suggestion that the three institutions weren’t that keen on anyway.

EUR/USD ended the week around 1.1165, up from the weekly lows and well above support. Nevertheless, the common currency lost a lot of ground on this tense week.

source

 

EUR/USD closed above the support line, I will have to wait till Monday opening to see if we are going to have a rebound or a break.

 

EUR/USD Forecast June 29 – July 3 – Greek crisis reaches deadline

EUR/USD was watching Greece very carefully with contrasting news causing confusion. The story became more dramatic after markets closed with the announcement of post-deadline referendum. In the last and busy week of H2, we have important inflation numbers and PMIs. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The reported breakthrough in the Greek crisis on Monday did not last long as the skies darkened on Wednesday and Thursday. New hopes for a deal on Friday still lacked a few key factors. The euro has been reacting to the headlines, but often falling on good news. One reason is the refocusing on monetary policy divergence, that favors the dollar, and the other is that the common currency has become a funding or even a “safe haven” currency. But, in case of a “Grexit” or a “Grexident”, it is clear that the euro would plunge that is already worrying some brokers. The most recent development was the announcement of a referendum on the rejected proposals. This is planned for after the deadline, assuming that the Eurogroup approves a temporary extension of the deadline, which seems unlikely as of Saturday at noon. And, the referendum law still has to pass in the Greek parliament. The crisis has overshadowed data, which has been balanced: better than expected PMIs but a weak IFO read. In the US, figures have been more positive than negative, with home sales leading the way ahead of a busy but short week in the US.

  • Greek crisis events: Eurogroup meeting on Saturday at 12:00 and ongoing talks all the time towards the June 30th deadline. This is when the current extension of the bailout expires, and also when Greece has to pay the IMF – payments it “bundled up” in early June. In the meantime, Greek banks lack cash and they depend on the now daily decision of the ECB. The ECB uses its Emergency Liquidity Assistance tool to lend money to the banks. In case of no deal during the weekend and no additional ELA, banks could remain shut on Monday. At the time of writing a 5 month extension was discussed, but things are extremely fluid. Markets would cheer any resolution that puts the topic to sleep, even if it is merely another can kicking exercise. More: 3 EUR Scenarios Our Greek Playbook – Morgan Stanley.
  • German CPI: Monday, during the morning with an all German publication at 12:00. Inflation is beginning to show signs of recovery from the lows. In May, prices beat expectations and CPI advanced 0.1% m/m, as oil prices stabilized in recent months. The initial number for June will likely show a rise of 0.2%.
  • Spanish CPI: Monday, 7:00. The euro-zone’s fourth largest economy is one of the countries that suffered most from deflation, but this is beginning to wane off. After a y/y fall of 0.2% in May, we could see a better number in the preliminary read for June: -0.1% is on the cards.
  • German Retail Sales: Tuesday, 6:00. The zone’s locomotive has enjoyed a big rise of 1.7% in the volume of sales in April,, but this may have been skewed by the Easter holiday. A modest rise of 0.3% is on the cards now.
  • French Consumer Spending: Tuesday, 6:45. After a big fall in April, consumers in the continent’s second largest economy picked up spending in May with a rise of 0.1%. Another advance could be seen now, worth 0.3%.

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