Eur/usd - page 285
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
for the third day EUR/USD is testing the resistance 1.1400 and drop back.
EUR/USD falls slightly in spite of significant progress in Greek talks
The euro fell slightly against the dollar on Monday on a day of choppy trading, in spite of the clearest indication in months of an imminent deal in the plodding, drawn out Greek Debt negotiations.
EUR/USD closed Monday's session down 0.0026 or 0.24% to 1.1334, as Monday's emergency summit of European Union leaders concluded in Brussels. The currency pair fluctuated between 1.1313 and 1.1410 on the first day of trading this week. Since spiking more than 1.7% on June 8, EUR/USD has remained relatively stable closing less than 1% in a positive or negative direction on 12 consecutive sessions.
The pair likely gained support on Monday at 1.1080, the low from June 8 and was met with resistance at 1.1438, the high from June 18.
In Brussels, Greece presented a broad, comprehensive proposal to its international creditors, which reportedly included plans to raise the nation's retirement age to 67 and impose increases to Value Added Taxes on electricity. In addition, Greece reportedly moved closer to agreeing to creditors' demands for a target budget surplus of 1% for this year, 2% next year and up to 3% in 2017, BBC reported.
Giorgos Stathakis, Greece's economy minister, also told the BBC that his nation's new proposal includes: a new corporate tax, a new tax on the wealthy and some other increases on VAT taxes. The developments stoked optimism among participants that a deal could be reached at a potential euro group meeting on Thursday.
"We will work very hard in the next few days, the institutions with the Greek government, to get that deal this week," said Netherlands finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the head of the euro group of finance ministers.
Reports also indicate that any potential deal will not include debt relief for Greece, as well as comprehensive pension cuts. Greece prime minister Alexis Tsipras held a series of talks with a host of European Union leaders, as well as European Central Bank head Mario Draghi and International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde before Monday night's emergency summit.
read more
Euro slips as market looks beyond initial progress in Greece talks
The euro fell on Tuesday as traders looked beyond an endless stream of headlines indicating progress in Greek debt talks while the dollar gained traction from solid U.S. housing data.
In Asia, a survey on Chinese manufacturing showed that factory activity may be stabilising but not stopped contracting, undermining commodity currencies.
The common currency dropped 0.6 percent in Asia to trade at $1.1268, falling more than a full cent from Monday's high of $1.14105.
Despite more optimism on Greece in global equity markets and elsewhere, a cautious mood prevailed in the currency market as a deal remains elusive and as the euro zone's economic outlook pales in comparison to others.
"Frankly, we just don't know what will happen next so we need to see how things will unfold. The euro's levels are still high and people are scared of its downside in case the talks break down," said Kyosuke Suzuki, managing director of forex at Societe Generale in Tokyo.
Euro zone ministers on Monday welcomed new reform proposals from Greece as a possible basis for an agreement to avert a looming default ahead of its payment to the International Monetary Fund at the end of the month.
Yet, both German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the IMF's managing director, Christine Lagarde, said there was still a lot of work to be done.
Traders expect more twists and turns in coming days as creditors pore over the proposals from Athens before planned meetings, one by finance ministers on Wednesday and the other national leaders on Thursday.
"We wait, there is a vast amount of commentary and expectation, and even a fair degree of optimism. And nothing might happen for a few days at least," said Emma Lawson, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank.
The euro's drop also partly reflected resurgence in the dollar, which was aided by upbeat housing data and a jump in Treasury yields.
U.S. home resales surged to a 5-1/2-year high in May as first-time buyers stepped into the market, helping to rekindle expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as early as September.
read more
Yesterday the EURUSD initially rose but found yet again enough resistance near the 1.1391 to give all its gains back and closed in the red near the low of the day. The pair is still in a choppy consolidation due to fundamental uncertainties like Greece but is set to break the 10-day moving average and test the 1.1236 daily support.
EUR/USD: Pair Remains Below $1.13, Ignores Upbeat PMIs
The French flash manufacturing PMI improved from 49.4 to 50.5 and ended up in the expansion area for the first time since May 2014, while the services PMI also ticked higher, from 52.8 to 54.1
Germany's flash manufacturing PMI accelerated to 51.9 from 51.1 in May, while the services gauge came out at 54.2 and also moved higher from the 53.0 in May.
Shortly after the releases, the EUR/USD pair was seen around $1.1275, trading lower on the day and probably on its way to the $1.12 figure.
News of a deal not being struck on Monday saw the euro slide lower to the $1.13 area, but it was a Goldman Sachs comment that finally undermined the value of the euro, bringing it down about 100 pips to $1.1240 area early morning on Tuesday.
Goldman Sachs Group said earlier on Tuesday that the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program would send the currency toward parity against the greenback, even in the event of a debt deal for Greece.
"Even if the Greece will get the financing it needs from its European partners, support for the euro will be temporary," Ladislav Benedek, senior currency strategist at Intesa Sanpaolo in Bratislava, said for WBP Online on Tuesday.
"I expect the short lived euro optimism to be soon reversed as policy divergence between euro zone and the US shall prevail," Benedek predicted further.
"From the fundamental point of view, it is important to emphasize that the euro has become a funding currency, which means that it tends to weaken when demand for risky assets improves and strengthens when risk aversion increases (this explains why EUR/USD has been performing rather well despite the Greek saga)," analysts at Rabobank believe.
Later in the session, US durable goods orders for June are expected, predicted to slightly decrease from May levels. Moreover, a manufacturing PMI and new home sales are due.
read more
EUR/USD was hesitant yesterday. The signals are neutral in nearest term. Support for the day we have to 1.1290. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.1250 / 00. Basically, as long as price remains below 1.1465 I still prefer the scenario downwards with targets in the area of 1.1180 - 1.1050.
Why is the euro falling?
EURUSD not joining the Greek deal party
Why is the euro falling across the board?
Stocks are up and European yields are down as expectations rise that we will finally get a deal this week, yet the euro has lost 190 pips since yesterday's highs.
The euro has shown that it will go up on good Greek news but it's doing the opposite now. Adam touched on the bund/fx unwind last night but that doesn't look in play with bund yields down with the rest of Europe.
Sometimes it's hard to put your finger on a real reason and my view is that the euro is getting two steps ahead of itself in thinking that a deal is done. I've no doubt we'll see a decent popIF we get headlines like; "Greece and Troika agree a full deal", but at the moment the market seems to be looking past the Greek affair to what the lay of the land will be after. Should the Greek can be kicked down the road what are we left with?
I think the euro is already trading those two now which is why we're lower. The market is thinking Greece is a done deal so is taking the opportunity to exploit euro rallies and rising bond yields so they can once again piggy back on the ECB. The QE trade has been knocked out of kilter by Greece as yields rose on the risk of Greece getting shown the door. If you remember, bond yields were at record lows before the ECB started QE. Countries like Spain and Italy were trading at 1.05% & 1.03%. Those QE bonds got a whole lot cheaper to buy recently and the market is now smelling a bargain once Greece is out of the way
Add in the fact that the dollar bulls are far from out of the game on Fed rate hikes and there's enough in the mix on both fronts
I won't dare say that this is the definitive reason but I know the market is always looking for the next bone and often does so before it's finished chewing the last one. Greece isn't over yet and failure to get a deal done this week will see us go risk off again, and probably in a big way
source
What triggered this sudden drop? is it the meeting of the EU?
Euro regains ground with Greece in focus
The euro pushed higher against the dollar on Wednesday, regaining ground after steep declines in the previous session, but gains were held in check amid guarded optimism that a resolution to Greece’s debt crisis was close to being approved.
EUR/USD was up 0.24% to 1.1195, off Tuesday’s lows of 1.1134. The pair ended that session down 1.51%.
The euro group of finance ministers was to hold talks later Wednesday to discuss whether to present a final plan to European Union leaders at a summit meeting on Thursday.
If an agreement is reached the Greek parliament could vote on a deal as soon as this weekend.
Demand for the dollar continued to be underpinned amid renewed expectations for higher U.S. interest rates later this year.
On Tuesday Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell said there was a 50-50 chance of a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting and added that he envisioned a second hike in December.
Meanwhile, U.S. data showed that new home sales jumped to a more than seven-year high in May, bolstering the outlook for the economy.
A separate report showing a rebound in business investment plans last month also boosted the outlook for growth this quarter after a weak start to the year.
USD/JPY was at 123.94, not far from Wednesday’s one-week highs of 124.18.
The euro was higher against the yen, with EUR/USD rising 0.23% to 138.72, up from the previous session’s lows of 138.2.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, eased 0.15% to 95.46 holding below Tuesday’s peaks of 95.89.
source
Yesterday the EURUSD plunged and closed in the red near the low of the day, on a wide range day. The pair is trading inside a daily support zone and the sharp drop was held by the 50-day moving average. Today we may expect a green inside day due to the wide range day drop of yesterday. Key levels for today, to the downside the 1.1097 what’s left of the daily support, to the upside we have the 1.1236 the upper band of the daily support and the 1.1288 the 10-day moving average.