Eur/usd - page 280
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EUR/USD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.1385 but closed lower at 1.1320. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. We have a double top formation around 1.1380, which suggests potential bearish scenario. An important area of resistance remains between 1.1350 - 1.1465, a good place for short positions with a tight stop loss above 1.1465 and potential target near 1.1050. Intraday support is 1.1280. A clear break below that level could lead to further bearish pressure testing 1.1200.
Germany No Longer Ruling Out Greek Default, Bild Reports
Germany’s government is no longer ruling out a Greek default after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras during talks on Thursday didn’t concede any ground on European Union reform proposals, Bild reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the government’s position.
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s advisers are in discussion on how to deal with a default, including capital controls for Greek banking clients and a debt cut, the German newspaper reported. Merkel is also responding to pressure from her Christian Democratic bloc as a growing number of lawmakers object to further financial aid for Greece, according to Bild.
The preparations follow International Monetary Fund negotiators leaving Brussels after failing to make progress on a debt deal that would help Greece avoid default and cement its position within the euro area.
Talks with Merkel and France’s President Francois Hollande concluded with Tsipras rejecting proposals such as a higher value-added tax, Bild said. European Union President Donald Tusk Thursday told Tsipras to stop maneuvering and decide whether to accept the conditions on financial aid.
Tusk abandoned his neutral position as a broker of EU compromises to signal Greece’s creditors are preparing to hand Tsipras an ultimatum. The creditors have grown exasperated with the Greek leader’s refusal to bow to their demands, risking a default and ultimately an exit from the currency bloc, with potential consequences beyond the country’s borders.
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Euro Industrial Production Back in Expansion in April
Output from manufacturers, mines and utilities as a whole emerged in positive territory in April after a fall to contraction in the previous month, the Luxembourg-based statistical office Eurostat reported on Friday.
Production by factories, mines and utilities across the 19-nation bloc rebounded 0.1% on a monthly basis, up from the downwardly revised 0.4% drop in March, while market consensus had bet on a 0.4% uptick.
In annual terms, the gauge showed an 0.8% upturn, up from the upwardly revised 2.1% growth seen in the third month of the year. Analysts had projected a 1.1% hike in March.
"The underlying picture still seems decent and it should still be able to make a respectable contribution to Eurozone GDP growth in the second quarter,: Howard Archer from IHS Economics noted after the data were made public on Friday.
Economic projections: World Bank
In its latest Global Economic Prospects the World Bank said growth in the euro area is now projected to reach 1.5 percent this year, increasing to 1.7 percent in 2016-17.
"The recovery in the Euro Area has progressed more rapidly than expected since late 2014, supported by a weakening euro, declining oil prices, record low interest rates, and an improvement in bank credit supply conditions."
The report also added that the depreciation of the euro since June 2014 should contribute around ½ percentage point to growth in the euro area in 2015, while lower oil prices should support consumer spending and corporate profits.
"Private investment should gradually pick up, but elevated corporate leverage, persistent financial fragmentation, significant slack in the labor markets of periphery countries, lingering supply-side impediments, and weak demand continue to weigh on prospects for a swift recovery," the report explained.
"Inflation was negative in the first quarter of 2015, but should rise gradually from mid-year onwards as the impact of declining oil prices wanes," the report also noted.
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Good move...
EUR/USD: Euro Erases Losses, Greek Menace Haunts Markets
The pair erased nearly all the losses on Friday and rose above the $1.12 mark to trade at $1.1225 as the US session kicked off. However, the Greek problems are still hanging over markets, which should limit the upside potential of the single currency.
Earlier in the day, the euro depreciated against the US dollar on Friday, neglected after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) walked away from the table in Brussels, while Germany's Bild reported that the largest euro zone economy is preparing for a Greek default, and the market is curious to see whether the nation will make a €1.5 billion repayment to the IMF by the end of the month.
Moreover, industrial production in the euro zone for April collapsed from 2.1% to 0.8% year-on-year, while PPI in the US for May declined 1.1% yearly, up from -1.3% previously.
Later in the session, the University of Michigan consumer confidence gauge for June is due, and is expected to improve from 90.7 to 91.2.
"Risk sentiment has soured as concerns about faltering negotiation between Greece and its creditors have raised concerns that the Greece could be edging towards a possible default if a deal to released additional funds is not reached in the coming days. In the aftermath of the breakdown in talks, Greek yields have risen sharply with the 10Yr benchmark rate climbing a chunky 26.5 bps to 11.50%, while the yield on other distressed peripheral debt has risen between 7bps and 9bps," Millan L.B. Mulraine, deputy head US strategy, wrote on Friday.
Trading should be cautious ahead of next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where hope is still alive that the Federal Reserve will hike rates, although September's lift-off scenario remains more likely.
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I hit my target for today for EUR/USD at 1.1175 and now price is is back to the open price the market is indecisive. anyway drop or rise I have a feeling next week price will trade in good range. Have a nice weekend everyone.
EUR recorded a decrease on Thursday after a downtrend throughout the day. The session starts at a price of 1.1323, then went down, reaching the lowest level for the day at 1.1183. Later reversed direction and the euro finished at 1.1257. In case the price continue to fall, the couple will move to the first support at 1.1051.
EUR/USD Forecast June 15, 2015
The EUR/USD pair initially fell during the course of the session on Friday, but just as we saw on both Thursday and Tuesday, the buyers stepped back into the marketplace and pushed the Euro higher. The market certainly look like they are battling to go higher, but right now we believe that short-term pullbacks will be short-term buying opportunities at best. Ultimately, this is a market that will break out above the 1.15 level given enough time, but in the meantime we will simply have to accept short-term gains. We have no interest in selling until we get below the 1.09 level.
EUR/USD: Pair Driven by Words From Worlds Leaders, Euro Ends Higher
The EUR/USD pair oscillated within a range of 300 pips over the week ending June 12, mostly driven by Greek headlines which affected the euro and comments by world leaders that weighed on the US dollar.
The euro recovered from last Friday's lows at $1.1050 and generated profits versus the US dollar on Monday, supported by rumors - later denied - that US President Barack Obama said he believed the strong dollar was a problem, while German industrial production for April surprised on the upside.
The euro continued to trade around the $1.13 threshold on Tuesday, after the euro zone's GDP met forecast, while G7 talks brought no major deal-breakers concerning Greece.
The broad dollar weakening arrived on Wednesday, which saw the pair lifted a few pips below the $1.14 threshold, after BoJ Governor Kuroda said that the yen was too weak on an effective exchange rate basis, sending the dollar down against other crosses.
Wednesday's optimism was offset by S&P’s downgrade of Greek debt and the euro edged below the $1.13 level on Thursday, while a meeting between Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras once again ended without progress.
Another leg of downsizing came after a report came showing leaders in the German government had decided that Germany would not approve a potential third rescue package for Greece, even if Athens succeeded in closing a deal with its creditors on the current bailout program, according to the German daily Bild. The pair made a knee-jerk move down to $1.1190 after splendidUS retail sales fed hawkish bets ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting.
Euro buyers were not pleased by the fact that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) called back its negotiating team from Brussels, and ditched the currency to $1.1160 on Friday. Moreover Bild reported that Germany is preparing for a Greek default.
Traders will have to wait for the next Eurogroup meeting which is scheduled for June 18, withEuropean Council President Donald Tusk saying the gathering should be decisive.
Over the whole week, the pair rose 1.32% and ended at a closing price of $1.1260.
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EUR/USD the market closed on the opening price last week. it is going to be interesting how the market will react on Monday.