Eur/usd - page 250
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EUR/USD technical analysis from Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs technical analyst says 'EUR/USD seems to be resuming its trend':
They go on to say that:
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EUR/USD: Trend Remains Negative, Pair Trades Around $1.06
Trading has been choppy during the Asian session on Monday as a lack of macro news has led to a calm session. The pair has been hovering around the $1.06 handle, with a swing low at $1.05 in sight, but investors have been unable to break this support so far, although the pair remains heavily oversold.
Negative yields in the euro zone, along with QE from European Central Bank (ECB) are weighing on the shared currency, while this week might prove that the latest slowdown in the US was only temporary as the biggest economy in the world will release important macro figures throughout the week.
As there is almost zero macro news on the agenda on Monday, trading will be driven by sentiment and by yield differentials between US and EU bonds.
Barclays bank is still bearish: "We think Euro will fall below parity against Dollar by the end of the year because of ECB's easing and low returns on capital in euro zone."
Moreover, the Chinese trade balance dropped heavily and sent commodity-backed currencies plummeting, although EUR/USD remained unaffected.
"We expect this week’s ECB meeting to be a relatively low-impact affair in terms of market reaction, with the central bank likely to offer no indication of plans to alter course even as it claims some success in terms of impact of QE so far. We expect the negative real yields associated with QE in the euro zone to force euro zone investors increasingly into foreign markets. Balance of payments data released Friday for February will provide an indication of how investor flows responded to the first full month of QE," analysts at BNP Paribas wrote in a research note on Monday.
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EURUSD fell on Friday’s session for the 4th straight day and close in the red on the middle of the daily range. The entered a daily support zone [1.06220 | 1.04620] and we may see some choppy action until a clear breakout of this area. On Tuesdays we will have the US Retail sales and on Wednesday we will have the ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference that my set the tone for the rest of the week.
Italian industrial output Feb mm +0.6% vs +0.5% exp
Italian industrial output Feb mm +0.6% vs +0.5% exp
EUR/USD: Euro Corrects Earlier Losses, Still Close to Cycle Lows
The pair was seen correcting some losses during the US trading on Monday, although it remained lower on the day and was trading around $1.0560, very close to cycle lows, which are slightly below the $1.05 mark.
The world's slowdown is getting real, as the World Bank cut the economic outlook for China & East Asia which should offer more support for the greenback in the long term.
Negative yields in the euro zone, along with QE from the European Central Bank (ECB) are weighing on the shared currency, while this week might prove that the latest slowdown in the US was only temporary, as the biggest economy in the world will release important macro figures throughout the week.
According to research from CFTC and Rabobank, USD longs have been consolidating in recent weeks below their recent highs, though they remain at extremely elevated levels, while EUR shorts have back-stepped from the previous week’s peak as the ECB’s bond-buying plan progresses and the situation between Greece and its creditors remains fractious.
Weak Chinese trade report reinforces slowdown concerns
"The US dollar has regained upward momentum over the last week with the dollar index rising back towards key resistance at the 100.00-level. The US dollar has outperformed most notably overnight against the Australian and New Zealand dollars following the release of the latest weaker than expected trade report from China. The report revealed that both export and import growth was weaker than expected in March. The annual rate of export and import growth contracted by -14.6% and -12.3% respectively. A customs official stated after the report was released that 'the domestic economy is facing increasing downward pressure as it enters the 'new normal' and that 'we can’t be certain of stable exports in the second quarter' adding that 'these difficulties and problems are worthy of our high attention',” analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi wrote in a research note on Monday.
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Germany’s Wholesale Price Index 1.0% vs. 0.2% forecast
Germany’s wholesale price index rose more-than-expected last month, official data showed on Tuesday.
In a report, Destatis said that Germany’s Wholesale Price Index rose to 1.0%, from 0.5% in the preceding month.
Analysts had expected Germany’s Wholesale Price Index to rise 0.2% last month.
EURUSD initially tried to rally but found enough selling pressure at 1.0622 to turn around and move downward where it also did not stayed for long, closing in the middle of the daily range. The pair is trading within this daily support zone [1.06220 | 1.04620] also known of “no man’s land” and choppy trading is to be expected until a clear breakout of this area.
EUR/USD: Pair Stuck at $1.0550, Traders Await US Retail Sales
Volatility was only mild during Tuesday's European trading and the pair was hovering around $1.0550, waiting for US retail sales later in the session. Retail sales are expected to tick higher to 0.1% from -0.6%, while the control core gauge should rise to 0.5% from 0.0% previously.
Negative yields in the euro zone, along with the European Central Bank's (ECB) QE, weigh on the single currency and offset slightly deteriorating US data. Today's figures might confirm the slowdown in the US was only temporary, with the Federal Reserve still ready to hike rates in the summer/autumn of 2015.
According to research from CFTC and Rabobank, USD longs have been consolidating in recent weeks below their recent highs, though they remain at extremely elevated levels, while EUR shorts have back-stepped from the previous week’s peak as the ECB’s bond-buying plan progresses and the situation between Greece and its creditors remains fractious.
"Much of the post-payrolls concern for USD bulls over the US economic slowdown appears to have eased amid reassuring comments from Fed policymakers but it is now up to the US data to support the notion that the ‘soft patch’ in activity has been largely due to transitory factors. After several months of disappointment our economists expect Tuesday’s March retail sales report to show consumers spending more of the windfall from lower gasoline prices. We expect a strong headline gain of 1% m/m on the back of positive industry auto sales reports and a 0.4% m/m increase in the ‘control group’ which would be the best gain in four months," analysts at BNP Paribas believe.
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Eurozone Industrial Production Growth Strongest In 7 Months
Eurozone industrial production grew the most in seven months in February and exceeded economists' expectations, figures from Eurostat showed Tuesday.
Industrial production rose a working-day adjusted 1.6 percent year-on-year following 0.4 percent growth in January, which was revised from 1.2 percent. Economists had expected 0.8 percent growth.
Month-on-month, industrial production increased 1.1 percent in February after a 0.3 percent fall in January, which was revised from 1.2 percent drop reported earlier. Economists were looking for 0.4 percent gain.
EUR/USD: Pair Rockets as IMF Raises EU, Cuts US Outlook
The US dollar eased against the euro zone's common currency on Tuesday, in reaction to US retail sales which surprised on the downside in March.
The dollar tumbled 0.33% to $1.0600 versus the euro, retreating from the last session's one-month high at $1.0520.
The latest US retail sales figures printed 0.9%, above last month's -0.6% and just missing estimates of a 1.0% rise. The control core gauge rose to 0.3% from -0.2% in February.
Later in the day, business inventories are forecast to show a 0.2% rise in February, after the zero reading previously.
Negative yields in the euro zone, along with the European Central Bank's (ECB) QE, weigh on the single currency and offset slightly deteriorating US data. Today's figures might confirm that the slowdown in the US was only temporary, with the Federal Reserve still ready to hike rates in the summer/autumn of 2015.
According to research from CFTC and Rabobank, USD longs have been consolidating in recent weeks below their recent highs, though they remain at extremely elevated levels, while EUR shorts have back-stepped from the previous week’s peak, as the ECB’s bond-buying plan progresses and the situation between Greece and its creditors remains fractious.
"Much of the post-payrolls concern for USD bulls over the US economic slowdown appears to have eased amid reassuring comments from Fed policymakers but it is now up to the US data to support the notion that the ‘soft patch’ in activity has been largely due to transitory factors. After several months of disappointment our economists expect Tuesday’s March retail sales report to show consumers spending more of the windfall from lower gasoline prices. We expect a strong headline gain of 1% m/m on the back of positive industry auto sales reports and a 0.4% m/m increase in the ‘control group’ which would be the best gain in four months," analysts at BNP Paribas believe.
read more