Eur/usd - page 216
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EUR/USD: QE Amount To Be €50 Billion Monthly, Euro Flies Higher
The euro went very volatile late Wednesday as the amount of the ECB's upcoming QE was leaked and said to be €50 billion monthly, which makes the total yearly volume only €600 billion.
The markets went crazy after leaked information about the volume of the much-anticipated ECB's QE, which is said to be only €600 billion a year. This amount has been already priced in and comes as no surprise, hence the euro fell 60 pips on the initial reaction, but quickly recovered and was trading in positive territory after the announcement.
When the dust settled, the EUR/USD pair was trading at $1.1660, up 1.0% on the day.
The amount is not as large as hoped and the euro might trim some losses, which it suffered in the last weeks.
Technical analysis
The EUR/USD free fall was halted for a while as the cross ticked below another big psychological area of $1.1500 on Friday and stabilized. Technical oscillators are hugely oversold as the downtrend continues without any signs of a long-term correction.
Intraday charts are trying to stop a decline above $1.1500 as many option contracts are placed around that level as it's a major area of interest.
On the other hand, every spike in prices will find resistance at the previous support of $1.1750 and little bit lower on a minor swing high below $1.1650.
source
EUR / USD recovered yesterday but touched the resistance and retreated a bit.
The short-term trend remains downward.
The daily oscillators indicate the speed of momentum "bearish" and open the way to future falls.
The 14-day RSI is oversold and pointing down.
The daily MACD is below the signal line and pointing down.
Shows minimum and maximum lower and below the two moving averages of 50 and 200 days.
R3 - 1.17355
R2 - 1.16871
R1 - 1.16466
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.15982
S1 - 1.15577
S2 - 1.15093
S3 - 1.14688
http://bewayopa.wordpress.com/
EUR / USD was stable during yesterday closing slightly downwards.
The short-term bias remains negative, but given the positive divergence between the RSI and the price action, we can see some reactions.
On the daily chart, the price structure is with downward trend and forming minimum and maximum lower and below both moving averages 50 and 200 days.
R3 - 1.16691
R2 - 1.16416
R1 - 1.15948
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.15673
S1 - 1.15205
S2 - 1.14930
S3 - 1.14462
tomorrow is the big day I guess it's normal for today the market to be dead
Euro slips lower as markets look to ECB
The euro slipped lower against the dollar on Thursday as investors waited to see if the European Central Bank would embark on a large scale quantitative easing program later in the day.
EUR/USD slid 0.23% to 1.1585, not far from last Friday’s 11-year trough of 1.1459.
The single currency has been pressured lower by mounting expectations that the ECB will launch a government bond-buying program at its meeting later Thursday, in a bid to stave off the threat of deflation in the euro area.
Uncertainty over the outcome of Greek elections, due to be held on Sunday, with anti-bailout party Syriza leading in the polls also weighed.
The euro also slipped lower against the yen, with EUR/JPY down 0.24% to 136.60.
The Bank of Japan held off on expanding its monetary easing scheme on Wednesday and instead expanded a loan scheme aimed at boosting lending.
USD/JPY was little changed at 117.96, off Wednesday’s lows of 117.17.
In other trade, the Canadian dollar was at six year lows, with USD/CAD at 1.2355 after the Bank of Canada shocked markets with a rate cut on Wednesday.
The BoC cut rates to 0.72% from 1.0% previously and lowered its inflation outlook, in response to the recent sharp drop in oil prices.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.19% to 93.18.
EURUSD tried to rally during yesterday session but found enough selling pressure on the 10-day moving at 1.1680 to turn things back down to the open price. The pair closed near the open of the day creating an inverted hammer pattern. Stochastic is showing a slight bullish momentum and volume is falling as investors wait for the ECB monetary policy statement.
Be prepared for the worst but hope for the best!
Draghi's 'QE Baby' Might Be Twice as Big as Expected: Press
The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to announce a massive stimulus Thursday that could be bigger and bolder than had been previously expected, sources said just hours prior to the key monetary policy statement.
On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Frankfurt-based bank's 6-member Executive Board had recommended bond purchases of about €50 billion a month for at least a year. That would bring the total figure to about €600 billion.
However, Bloomberg said the board and ECB chief Mario Draghi have called for such purchases to continue until December 2016, totaling up to €1.1 trillion - more than double that previously thought.
D-Day
There are concerns, however, that it is too little, too late. Growth in the currency bloc has been lackluster, and the currency bloc slipped into deflation in December, when prices fell by 0.2%, the first annual decline in five years.
Earlier on Wednesday, Italian paper Il Sole 24 Ore, also citing anonymous sources from the bank, reported that the unprecedented sovereign debt purchasing program - known as QE - will be favored by just 13 Governing Council members, while 8 will vote against.
Although that scenario would mean QE was passed, it would also send a worrying signal to investors, as the ECB's rate-setting body rarely votes and prefers to reach decisions by unanimous agreement.
Nick Kounis at ABN Amro said: “We think that the QE programme needs to be towards the upper end of the range to impress financial markets, and this looks increasingly likely. As well as government bonds, other securities, such as agency debt and corporate bonds could well be included.”
source
ECB leaves all rates unchanged
The European Central Bank was not expected to change the interest rates. The main lending rate stands at a record low of 0.05% and the deposit rate at -0.20%. The ECB has already said that rates have reached their lower bound and the focus is on the decision about Quantitative Easing: how much will the ECB print? It was unclear if the ECB would make an announcement about QE already at the rate statement or at the press conference.
EUR/USD was trading higher, at around 1.1630, before the publication. Follow a live blog of the press conference, starting shortly.
Draghi initially sends EUR/USD deep down on 60 billion combined until September 2016
The size of the move was apparently not expected by the markets: EUR/USD is below 1.16 but still not at new multi-year lows.
60 billion per month up to September 2016.
However, the move could reverse, as often seen in similar moves.
EUR/USD: Draghi's QE Torpedoes Euro Below $1.15
The shared European currency got whiplashed as the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, took to the podium to resolve the several-months-old cliffhanger by announcing a quantitative easing (QE) program.
The euro extended its losses and broke below the $1.15 marker and was most recently trading at around $1.148 as Draghi was taking reporters' questions.
The initial knee-jerk sent the shared currency down 100 pips to as low as $1.1509 but it bounced back to around $1.156 during the first half of the press conference. The pair had fluctuated a few pips above the $1.16 threshold mere minutes before the presser started.
"In March 2015 the Eurosystem will start to purchase euro-denominated investment-grade securities issued by euro area governments and agencies and European institutions in the secondary market," Draghi said.
The ECB will add €60 billion to its balance sheet each month until September 2016. That is on the higher side of recent speculations as the QE program would boost the ECB's balance sheet to the all-time peak size of more than €3 trillion.
The stimulus program will run "until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation" towards the 2% target, Draghi said.
As was broadly anticipated, the Governing Council did not move benchmark interest rates this month after having introduced slashed them twice in the past year.
The EUR/USD cross has been heading south for months and the pressure on the single currency intensified last week as the euro hit its lowest level since late 2003 at $1.146, after it became clear the region officially entered deflation territory for the first time since the global economic recession.
On the other hand, the robust performance of the US economy has not only been fueling dollar bulls but also expectations for the start of a tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve sometime later this year, although disinflationary pressures and a recent streak of more moderate data has pushed out the timing of the lift-off into the second half of the year.
Technical analysis
The EUR/USD free fall was halted for a while as the cross ticked below another big psychological area of $1.1500 on Friday and stabilized. Technical oscillators are hugely oversold as the downtrend continues without any signs of a long-term correction.
Intraday charts are trying to stop a decline above $1.1500 as many option contracts are placed around that level as it's a major area of interest.
On the other hand, every spike in prices will find resistance at the previous support of $1.1750 and little bit lower on a minor swing high below $1.1680
source