Eur/usd - page 213
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EURUSD fell during yesterday session making fresh lows at 1.1726 and close slightly in the green near the open of the day creating a long-legged doji. Stochastic is showing an oversold market setting higher lows and price is making lower lows, signs that the downside may begin to get exhausted. We might see the pair in a choppy sideways action between now and ECB monetary policy meeting on the 22 of January.
Swiss National Bank discontinues minimum exchange rate, lowers interest rate to –0.75%
Eurozone trade surplus widens in November
The eurozone's trade surplus widened in November as exports rose slightly, an indication that a weakening euro may be providing a modest boost to the economy.
The European Union's statistics agency Thursday said the eurozone recorded a surplus in its trade in goods with the rest of the world of EUR20 billion ($23.6 billion), up from EUR16.5 billion in the same month of 2013.
Seasonally adjusted figures recorded a 0.2% increase in exports from October, while imports were unchanged. Exports have been volatile in recent months, falling very slightly in October after a September surge.
The euro has fallen steadily against the dollar since May, when the European Central Bank first indicated it was willing to provide additional stimulus to boost flagging growth and a very low inflation rate.
It subsequently cut its key interest rates in June and September, and has also offered cheap, four-year loans to banks, and begun to buy bonds issued by the private sector.
The currency has continued to weaken in early 2015, as investors increasingly expect the ECB to launch a program of large-scale government bond purchases either on Jan. 22, or in early March, a move that would significantly increase the supply of euros.
While modest, the pickup in exports during November adds to other indications that the currency area's economy continued to grow in the final quarter of last year, while barely avoiding stagnation.
Figures released Wednesday showed industrial production rose for the third straight month in November, while figures released last week showed retail sales rose for the second straight month.
source
EUR / USD fell on Wednesday, but stopped on the support zone at 1.1726 (S1) and recovered after the drop in US retail sales for December to be the highest since January 2014.
Then the pair hit the resistance slightly below our line of 1.1846 (R1) and moved downwards to negotiate more or less unchanged. Continues the positive divergence between the RSI and the price action.
The MACD is still negative.
R3 - 1.19655
R2 - 1.19057
R1 - 1.18462
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.17864
S1 - 1.17269
S2 - 1.16671
S3 - 1.16076
EUR / USD fell on Wednesday, but stopped on the support zone at 1.1726 (S1) and recovered after the drop in US retail sales for December to be the highest since January 2014.
Then the pair hit the resistance slightly below our line of 1.1846 (R1) and moved downwards to negotiate more or less unchanged. Continues the positive divergence between the RSI and the price action.
The MACD is still negative.
price broke the support of 1.1750 and fell almost 200 pips. good that I was waiting for selling under the support
German Inflation Freezes to 5-Yr Low in Dec: CPI
German consumer prices ended last year hovering dangerously close to stagnation, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) confirmed in its final reading on Friday, adding to signs that euro-area inflation is turning negative and potentially bolstering the case for more European Central Bank (ECB) stimulus.
Inflation in the euro area's largest economy dropped to a meager 0.2% year-on-year growth during the final month of the past year, compared to the 0.6% growth seen in November. That's the weakest figure since October 2009.
A preliminary print released earlier in the month showed such a figure, falling shy of the original market consensus which had been for a 0.4% hike.
Month-on-month, the gauge remained intact and was flat, sticking to the zero growth seen in the previous month. The result confirmed the flash reading, while original estimates predicted 0.2% growth.
HICP figures
A separate measure specially developed to allow comparison between European inflation figures - the so-called Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), showed inflation with a 0.1% growth rate month-on-month, compared with November's flat reading. Analysts had called for an acceleration to a 0.2% hike, but the flash print failed to meet such hopes.
Measured on an annual basis, inflation rose 0.1%, following the 0.5% increase in the previous month. The preliminary publishing also showed such a figure, while original estimates had been calling for a milder deceleration to a 0.2% growth.
Deflation nightmares
The reading came as ECB officials have been debating whether to expand stimulus to include buying government bonds (the so-called fulll-scale QE), as plunging oil prices threaten to tip the euro area into a deflationary spiral.
Germany has been the main center of opposition to QE, but slackening price growth in the country might give ECB President Mario Draghi additional ammunition to convince wavering members of the ECB's Governing Council to back QE, though Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann has multiple times signaled that he will oppose such a step.
source
EURUSD fell hard and fast during the course of yesterday session and as a result we are well below the 1.17 handle. The Swiss National Bank in an unscheduled announcement ended the currency peg that it had been holding onto at the 1.20 level in the EURCHF, putting significant downward pressure on the Euro in general.
EUR/USD fell yesterday after the Swiss National Bank have suddenly abandoned the EUR/CHF, raising the stakes in how the ECB will implement a large-scale QE program in the policy meeting next Thursday.
The RSI continued to fall despite oversold, while the MACD moved to further negative territory.
The daily trend is clearly negative.
The EURUSD is forming minimum and lower maximum below and is under the moving averages 50 and 200 days.
R3 - 1.19835
R2 - 1.18878
R1 - 1.17587
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.16630
S1 - 1.15339
S2 - 1.14382
S3 - 1.13091
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EUR/USD hits fresh 11-year lows on ECB stimulus expectations
The euro dropped to fresh 11-year lows against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as downbeat euro zone inflation data fuelled further expectations that the European Central Bank could announce additional stimulus measures in its upcoming policy statement.
EUR/USD hit 1.1538 during U.S. morning trade, the pair's lowest since October 2003; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.1547, retreating 0.72%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.1531 and resistance at 1.1649, the session high.
The euro was hit after official data earlier showed that consumer price inflation in the euro zone fell 0.1% in December, in line with market expectations, after a 0.2% decline in November.
The bloc's CPI rose at an annualized rate of 0.2% last month, unchanged from November.
Core CPI in the euro zone, which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, rose 0.4% in December, after a 0.1% downtick the previous month.
The data fuelled further concerns over persistently low levels of inflation in the euro area. The European Central Bank targets an inflation rate of close to, but just below 2%.
The data came after an interim ruling by the European Court of Justice on Wednesday was seen as clearing the way for the ECB to implement quantitative easing measures at its upcoming meeting on January 22.
The single currency also remained under pressure after the Swiss National Bank shocked markets on Thursday by scrapping the 1.20 per euro exchange rate floor it imposed in September 2011, in a bid to stave off deflation and prevent the continued appreciation of the safe-haven franc.
The move indicated that the SNB sees a high likelihood that the ECB will implement quantitative easing measures at its upcoming meeting next week.
The euro strengthened against the Swiss franc on Friday, with EUR/CHF rallying 1.27% to 0.9895.
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