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The ECB president said that "It is unlikely a strong recovery in the coming months"
R3 - 1.26436
R2 - 1.26091
R1 - 1.25728
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.25383
S1 - 1.25020
S2 - 1.24675
S3 - 1.24312
EUR/USD forecast for the week of November 24, 2014
The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally during the week, but as you can see the area above the 1.25 level continues to be far too expensive, and as a result it appears that the market is ready to continue going lower. With that, we feel that a break down below the lows again would send this market much lower and that would be a nice selling opportunity. We believe that the market will then go down to the 1.2050 level, and then perhaps even lower than that. We still maintain that rallies are selling opportunities.
source
last week was more a spontaneous moves than analytically
EUR/USD Forecast Nov. 24-28
EUR/USD traded in range for some time, but eventually lost ground and closed under 1.24. Can it extend its falls?The main events this week are the preliminary inflation releases, employment data as well as another German business survey. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
After long months of falls, Germany’s ZEW business confidence finally bounced back as investors returned to optimism. However, fresh purchasing managers’ indices disappointed. Germany’s flat manufacturing PMI was especially worrying. The final blow came from ECB president Draghi: he not only hinted about QE, but showed determination to act fast on battling the specter of deflation. This second speech of his was not challenged by the Germans, and the euro was hit hard. In the US, the FOMC meeting minutes revealed that the Fed is somewhat worried about inflation expectations and widely agreed on leaving the “considerable time” phrase regarding rates. However, the global slowdown has little impact on the US according to the officials, Encouraging data from inflation, home sales and manufacturing did little to help the greenback.
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German Ifo business climate rises to 104.7 in November
German business confidence improved unexpectedly in November, easing concerns over the health of the euro zone’s largest economy, industry data showed on Monday.
In a report, the German research institute, Ifo said its Business Climate Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 104.7 this month, above forecasts for 103.0 and up from a reading of 103.2 in October.
The Current Assessment Index increased to 110.0 in November, beating expectations for a reading of 108.0 and up from 108.4 in October.
The Business Expectations Index, which measures attitudes toward business prospects over the next six months, improved to 99.7 this month from 98.3 in October, above forecasts for 95.5.
The monthly index is based on a survey of around 7,000 German firms in the manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail sectors.
EUR/USD was trading at 1.2395 from around 1.2382 ahead of the release of the data, while EUR/GBP was at 0.7924 from 0.7917 earlier.
Meanwhile, European stock markets added to gains. Germany's DAX tacked on 0.5%, the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 rallied 1.1%, France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.9%, while London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.1%.
SOURCE
EURUSD fell sharply during the course of Friday’s session, testing the 1.2350 level. If the pair can break down below 1.2350 will head down to the 1.2050 level, which is a longer-term support. Ultimately bounces are selling opportunities as the US dollar should continue to be by far the safest currency in the world at the moment.
Euro gains vs dollar after Markit U.S. services data
The euro strengthened further against dollar early Monday after private data on the U.S. services sector fell short of forecast in early November, reducing earlier bullish bets on the greenback.
Financial data firm Markit said its "flash" services Purchasing Managers Index slipped to 56.3 in November, slightly below expectations and the lowest since April. This compared with October's final reading of 57.1.
The euro reached a session high of $1.2439 before edging down to $1.2423, up 0.3 percent from late on Friday.
we have a strong fundamental week on the euro this week
The daily momentum studies indicate positive divergence between them and the price action, which gives additional reason to wait for a fall.
R3 - 1.25539
R2 - 1.24990
R1 - 1.24696
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.24147
S1 - 1.23853
S2 - 1.23304
S3 - 1.23010
http://bewayopa.wordpress.com/
EURUSD initially fell during the course of yesterday session, but found enough support to bounce back up from the 1.24 handle. However, this is a pair that in a strong downward trend, so we may expect some sideways consolidation and the pair should continue to stay below the 1.26 level in the foreseeable future.