Eur/usd - page 188

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thanks for the news have a great weekend

 

EUR/USD Forecast Nov. 17-21

EUR/USD traded well within known ranges, supported by some news of growth. A busy week awaits us with an important German survey, PMIs and speeches from Draghi, Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Germany managed to escape recession with a marginal growth rate of 0.1%. Is it good enough to pull the zone forward or a dent in chances of stimulus? Also France is enjoying growth of sorts. In the US, jobless claims slightly disappointed and so did JOLTs, but the latter had an important silver lining: the number of quits is back to pre-crisis levels, and this shows that people are confident to switch jobs. Confidence is also apparent in the highest consumer confidence since 2007 and in upbeat retail sales. What next?

  1. Trade Balance: Monday, 10:00. The euro-zone enjoys a trade surplus, mostly thanks to German exports, but also Italy enjoys a surplus (and it reports its balance an hour earlier). The surplus keeps the euro bid. After a figure of +15.8 billion in August, September could see a higher number: 16.2 billion.
  2. Bundesbank monthly report: Monday, 11:00. The German central bank issues a monthly report in which it reflects on the economic situation in Europe’s largest economy and the euro-zone in general. It will be interesting to see if they refer to the GDP release and if the report will be used to criticize the ECB’s action, as friction between Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann and ECB president Draghi has been high of late.
  3. Mario Draghi talks: Monday, 14:00 and Friday at 8:00. Monday’s event is an official testimony in Brussels. As we are relatively far from the next ECB meeting, Draghi could feel more free to releases hints, especially if asked tough questions. The speech on Friday is at a banking congress in Frankfurt. Also here, the ECB chief has an opportunity to shake markets. He has a very strong influence on the common currency, as recently seen in the rate decision.
  4. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. This important business confidence survey has been falling month after month during 2014 and in October it fell to negative territory, reflecting pessimism among analysts and institutional investors. From October’s -3.6 points, a small bounce to +0.9 points is expected the German powerhouse. The all-European number stood on 4.1, and is also predicted to tick up to 4.3.
  5. Current Account: Wednesday, 9:00. Similar to the trade balance figure, this wider measure of external trade is also positive, and reached a surplus of 18.9 billion in August. A weaker euro probably resulted in a wider surplus now: 21.3 billion.

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it will rise

 

EUR/USD weekly outlook: November 17 - 21

The euro rose against the dollar on Friday, coming off earlier lows after data showed that U.S. inflation expectations fell in an otherwise upbeat report on consumer confidence.

EUR/USD was up 0.40% to 1.2526 in late trade, after falling to lows of 1.2399 earlier in the session. For the week, the pair gained 0.54%.

The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to a seven year high of 89.4, better than forecasts of 87.5 and up from October’s reading of 86.9.

However the report also showed that consumers expected annual inflation of 2.6% this year, down from expectations for inflation of 2.9% in October.

The US dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.25% to 87.61 in late trade, off the four-and-a-half year highs of 88.36 hit earlier in the session.

The single currency fell to session lows against the dollar earlier Friday after data showed that U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in October, ahead of forecasts for a 0.2% increase. The upbeat data bolstered the outlook for the economic recovery.

In the euro zone, data on Friday showed that the economy expanded 0.2% in the three months to September and grew 0.6% from the same period a year earlier.

Germany avoided a recession, posting growth of 0.1% in the last quarter, while France grew by a slightly stronger than expected 0.3%. Greece exited a six-year recession, but Italy fell back into recession, posting a contraction of 0.1%.

The weak growth figures did little to alter expectations for more easing measures from the European Central Bank.

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc rose to 26-month highs against the euro on Friday, with EUR/CHF at 1.2012 in late trade, not far from the Swiss National Bank’s exchange rate cap of 1.20 per euro.

The Swiss franc has strengthened against the euro in recent sessions ahead of a vote later this month which could force the central bank to increase its gold reserves, a move which could restrict its

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EURUSD Trend Summary today : BULLISH

Today i am going to follow this:

Buy 3rd Target (Overbought Price) at 1.2645

Buy 2nd Target (Reversal Price) at 1.2605

Buy 1st Target at 1.2564

Buy Area at 1.2537

WSS Pivot at 1.2510

Sell Area at 1.2483

Sell 1st Target at 1.2456

Sell 2nd Target (Reversal Price) at 1.2416

Sell 3rd Target (Oversold Price) at 1.2375

 

EURUSD pair initially fell during the course of the session on Friday, enough support at 1.24 to turn things back up and gain sufficient momentum to break and close above the 1.25 level. This is a very bullish looking candle and as a result the pair should continue to go higher for the short-term. Ultimately though there is plenty of resistance to the up side and it’s likely that this pair in the mid-term will resume is downward trend.

 

EUR / USD recovered the line of 1.24303 (S1).

Today in Asian morning, rose above the resistance (turned into support)

However, the increase was stopped at the resistance barrier 1.25784 (R1).

The RSI moved above its line 50 and is pointing up, while the MACD crossed above zero both lines and signal.

There is a positive divergence between both the momentum and the daily price action, which reveals the slowdown of momentum "bearish".

R3 - 1.27265

R2 - 1.26361

R1 - 1.25784

Daily Std. Pivot - 1.24880

S1 - 1.24303

S2 - 1.23399

S3 - 1.22822

 

good to know. thank you

 

Draghi repeats worries – EUR/USD pressured

The president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, is testifying before a committee of the European Parliament.

EUR/USD traded lower, struggling with 1.25 and is now taking another leg down under 1.2480.

Draghi says:

  • Most recent forecasts have been revised downwards
  • Expecting a moderate recovery in 2015-2016.
  • Demand supported by monetary policy stimulus, among other events.
  • High unemployment, unutilized capacity and balance sheet adjustments weigh.
  • Risks are on the downside.
  • Geopolitical risk could dampen confidence and investment.
  • Inflation in the euro-are remains very low – expected to remain at these levels before rising in 2015-16.
  • We closely monitor developments
  • Money growth rate has increased moderately.
  • The turning point in credit growth is behind us.
  • Fragmentation has receded significantly since the peak of the crisis.
  • Since the beginning of June, market money rates are declining – a result of monetary policy.
  • EONIA is not expected to exceed 0.25% before 2018.
  • Other rates are low.
  • Compression of spreads extended after September announcements.
  • Balance sheet expected to return to 2012 dimensions
  • Our measures are set to bring inflation to target.
  • We will stay alert.
  • GC unanimous to use additional unconventional measures to reach targets, and tasked staff to make preparations.
  • Draghi is basically repeating his words from the recent rate decision, in which he defied discontent.
  • Structural reforms are needed.
  • Banking union should be completed after the stress tests.
  • New low is 1.2472. Support awaits at 1.2440.
  • LTRO helped in stabilizing the collateral framework.
  • Draghi goes on to talk about the collateral system and away from monetary policy.
  • 2015 is the year when everybody must work together to return the euro-zone growth to track.
  • Questions begin: the first question in Spanish is about the trillion euro expansion of the balance sheet.
  • Answer: we stand ready to do more, unconventional measures.
  • Fiscal and monetary expansion cannot do the job alone without structural reforms.
  • Draghi continues answering questions unrelated to monetary policy, but EUR/USD continues falling to 1.2460 on USD strength.

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Europe Car Sales Growth Quickens In October: ACEA

European car sales grew at a faster pace in October, a monthly report released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association showed Tuesday.

New passenger car sales increased 6.5 percent in October from last year to 1,072,837 units, faster than the 6.4 percent rise in September. Sales expanded for the fourteenth consecutive month.

Substantial growth was recorded in major markets. Sales surged 26.1 percent in Spain and by 14.2 percent in the U.K. In Italy, car registrations advanced 9.2 percent and gained 3.7 percent in Germany.

Meanwhile, car registrations in France fell 3.8 percent.

During January to October, the EU market for passenger cars climbed 6.1 percent from the same period of last year mainly helped by the significant growth in registrations in Spain and the U.K.

source

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