Eur/usd - page 140
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French Industrial Production 1.6% vs. 1.0% forecast
French industrial output rose more-than-expected last month, official data showed on Friday.
In a report, INSEE said that French Industrial Production rose to 1.6%, from -2.3% in the preceding month whose figure was revised down from -1.7%.
Analysts had expected French Industrial Production to rise 1.0% last month.
EURUSD initially fell during yesterday session, but found support at roughly the same place it did during the Wednesday session and it means that EURUSD is ready to bounce. The pair will more than likely head to the 1.3450 level, and possibly even as high as the 1.3500. Expect significant selling pressure up in that region though, so this is a short-term buying opportunity at best.
EURUSD initially fell during yesterday session, but found support at roughly the same place it did during the Wednesday session and it means that EURUSD is ready to bounce. The pair will more than likely head to the 1.3450 level, and possibly even as high as the 1.3500. Expect significant selling pressure up in that region though, so this is a short-term buying opportunity at best.
i fully agree with you my target for long is at 1.35 hopeful it will get there
yeah the uptrend was expected due to chart analysis but dont you see the uptrend is more powerful than it should be ?
EURUSDon the 4h charts is in a Bullish momentum.
It is increasing and we can see a bullish pullback as likely in the short-term.
A break above 1.3450 would add to the short-term bullish case and open up a re-challenge of 1.3500.
Long-term trend remains bearish however and we reckon 1.3570 would hold in the coming week.
France asks EU for help with fallout from Russia food ban
France has asked the European Commission to take "appropriate" measures to deal with the fallout from a Russian ban on food imports from Europe, the French presidency announced on Friday.
The request came as President Francois Hollande met with French food producers concerned about the impact of the ban.
Noting the "importance of European and French food exports to Russia," a statement from the French presidency said talks were under way with the European Commission so that the "consequences of the embargo are accurately assessed and measures appropriate to the situation are taken."
"Special attention will be paid to producers of fruits and vegetables, and farmers who are already facing difficulties in the market," the statement said.
It added that an approach to the World Trade Organization (WTO) should also be considered.
The embargo announced by Prime Minister Dimitry Medvedev came in retaliation against US and European sanctions over Russia's alleged role in separatist violence in the eastern Ukraine.
Medvedev said the Russian embargo will bar imports of meats, fruits and vegetables, fish, and dairy products from the European Union, the United States, Australia, Canada and Norway, for a period of a year. Only baby food was exempted.
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EUR/USD Forecast August 11-15
EUR/USD fell to lower ground but yet again staged a late recovery to minimize its losses, remaining within the narrowing channel. Will this pattern continue? GDP numbers and a key German survey are the highlights of a busy week. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
ECB President Mario Draghi gave a little for everybody in his press conference: on one hand, he continued seeing inflation returning back to course and was not worried about growth, that looks weak in his country, Italy. On the other hand, he did stress that preparations are intensifying towards a QE program and also explained why EUR/USD should fall. The euro also suffered from weak German industrial numbers and fear of the recent escalation in relations with Russia. In the US, a solid services PMI and encouraging jobless claims numbers supported the USD. However, yet again we have seen profit taking on the greenback late in the week.
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German Bonds in Longest Winning Run Since 2012 on Haven Demand
German 10-year government bonds rose for a fifth week, the longest run since the height of the euro-region’s debt crisis, as geopolitical tensions prompted a surge in demand for the safest fixed-income securities.
Germany’s 10-year yields dropped to a record and two-year rates fell below zero for the first time since May 2013 as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said risks to growth from conflicts are increasing. The ECB left its key interest rates at record lows as it seeks to stimulate growth and avert deflation in the euro area with a package of measures announced in June. Yields on bonds from France to Finland fell to records amid a flight to safety.
“Geopolitical tensions have been a driver of lower bond yields,” said Jan Von Gerich, a fixed-income strategist at Nordea Bank AB in Helsinki. “We’ve also seen more signs that the euro-zone economy is seeing weaker development going forward. No inflation and weaker activity data adds to expectations of a broad-based ECB asset-purchase program. In the near term, bond yields can go lower still.”
Benchmark German 10-year (GDBR10) yields fell eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, this week to 1.05 percent at 5 p.m. London time yesterday. The 1.5 percent bund due in May 2024 rose 0.725, or 7.25 euros per 1,000-euro ($1,341) face amount, to 104.12. The rate dropped to 1.023 percent yesterday, the least since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 1989.
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Poland asks US to import apples banned by Russia
Poland has asked the United States to open its market quickly to Polish apples banned by Russia in a sanctions war over the crisis in Ukraine.
Poland's ambassador to Washington, Ryszard Schnepf, said he had met Michael Scuse, a senior official in the US Department of Agriculture, about the steps needed to open up the US market, the Polish press agency PAP reported.
"We are interested in a quick decision because the situation is extraordinary," Schnepf was quoted as saying.
"He told us to begin the procedure. We have a new meeting planned for August 18 with the heads of the agency that allows for the entry of agriculture products to the United States," he said.
"There is a greater understanding on account of the fact that the United States has also been hit by Russian sanctions," he added.
The United States severely restricts imports of fresh fruit and vegetables from the European Union, including EU member Poland, PAP said.
However, there are exceptions and Poland exports peppers and broccoli to the US market while Italy exports apples and pears, PAP said.
Poland is by far the leading exporter of apples in Europe, ahead of Italy and France.
Moscow announced on Thursday it was introducing an embargo on most food imports from Western countries that have imposed punishing sanctions against Russia over its annexation of Crimea and alleged support for rebels in eastern Ukraine.
Imports of beef, pork, fruit and vegetable produce, poultry, fish, cheese, milk and dairy products from the European Union, United States, Australia, Canada and Norway have been immediately banned.
EUR/USD Monthly Fundamental Forecast August
The EUR/USD weakened to 1.3384 towards the end of the month. Euro zone headline inflation surprised once again on the downside in July, dropping to 0.4% y/y, its lowest reading since October 2009. The annual inflation rate could face further downside risk over the next two months as food and energy prices remain subdued. We expect a gradual pickup thereafter, with headline inflation edging up to 0.7% by the end of the year
The US dollar (USD) is showing broad-based strength as we move into August, supported by an improved economic outlook in the United States coupled with firming inflation and labour market indicators that are shifting the focus toward monetary policy normalization at the US Federal Reserve (Fed). US yields have responded, providing for a fundamentally-driven USD rally on the back of interest rate differentials. Additionally, heightened tensions in the Middle East (linked to Israel’s offensive into Gaza), deeper joint economic/financial sanctions against the Russian Federation by both the US and the European Union (EU), and increasing violence in Syria have escalated geopolitical factors in the global risk equation, placing selective asset classes (emerging markets) on the defensive.
Relative growth and structural liquidity provided by the deepest capital markets in the world are the primary factors supporting a bullish trend for the US currency. The US economy expanded by 4% on a quarter-to-quarter annualized basis, prompting a revision to our forecast to 2% for the year as a whole before accelerating to 3.2% in 2015.
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