AUDUSD signals - page 10
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Approaching the month of August, a traditionally negative month for the Aussie that fell in 13 of the last 16 years on Usd and Cad.
I have talked about this currency pair since it hit the 0.9200 mark and I added to my long positions at 0.9050. I think we will see a move higher and a breakout from its current chart pattern. We may saw a capitulation sell-off on Friday ahead of Chinese GDP data as trader’s were preparing for the worst. Chinese GDP came in at 7.5% and market the second consecutive quarterly slowdown. The Australian Dollar rallied on the news and I think we may see a push higher past the 0.9500 level. That’s just my take on it.
The sentiment on the Aussie is very depressed and the removal of the floor on Chinese interest rates could lead to a rebound for AudUsd.
The extremely short positioning by non-commercials moves my short-term view on the positivity for the Aussie. A rebound is in sight (even for gold???).
Short oscillators are rapidly moving towards the overbought: I’m expecting a new rapprochement to the low of July 12[SUP]th[/SUP] for the Aussie.
Bad data coming from Australia take the Aussie back in area 0.90. The -6.9% in building permits approved in June is bad news that, combined with the negative seasonality of August, will make the Aussie fall below the psychological threshold of 0.90 in the coming days.
Aud is collapsing, break at 0.90, the downward will go on up to 0.85.
The divergence is even stronger, is next week going to be the right one for the rebound?
I have just analyzed the data generated from the Cot report this week. Non commercials have never been so short of Aud as now, it is even worse of 2008-2009.
Classic buy rumors sell news. Rates cut in Australia has produced exactly the opposite of what we were expecting, that is the force of Aud.
An interesting intermarket analysis on AudCad: Short Aud/Cad, if you believe that Oil stocks are better than Gold ones