Daily Technical Outlook - page 2

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GBPUSD: Sells Off, Threatens Further Declines.

GBPUSD: The pair remains vulnerable to the downside extending its correction and threatening further bearishness. We may see declines possibly towards the 1.6073 level, currently being tested. A break and hold below here could push the pair further lower towards the 1.6000 level, its big psycho level and possibly the 1.5958 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting further weakness. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to return above the 1.6300/08 levels. Further out, resistance stands at the 1.6350 level with a cut through here allowing for more gains towards the 1.6400 level. On the whole, GBP remains vulnerable on correction.

 

Daily Technical Strategist: EURUSD

EURUSD: The pair rallied sharply to close higher on Thursday. However, we will have to see EUR return above the 1.3047 and the 1.3171 levels to prevent a return to the 1.2824 level. If above the 1.3171 level is traded, the 1.3282 level will be targeted where a violation will call for a move further higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support lies at the 1.2824 level where a violation will call for a move further towards the 1.2755 level. We expect a cap to occur here and possibly turn the pair higher again. All in all, EUR continues to maintain its short term upside bias.

 

The Week Ahead - USDCHF

USDCHF – Reverses Gains, Pressure Builds On The 0.9238 Level.

USDCHF: With USDCHF reversing almost all of its corrective recovery gains the past week, the big risk is for it to return to the 0.9238 level. If this occurs in the new week, further declines will shape up towards the 0.9193 level, its May 07’2012 low with breach targeting the 0.9100 level and ultimately the 0.9000 level, its big psycho level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, it will have to return above the 0. 9424 level to annul its current weakness and resume its bullish offensive towards its Sept 10'2012 high at 0.9482. A breach will open up further upside gain towards the 0.9606 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the short term.

 

USDJPY: Ends Recovery, Sells Off.

USDJPY: As referenced in our previous analysis of the possibility of the pair failing at or ahead of its trendline resistance (red), we are currently seeing that happening. This development has turned the risk lower with the possibility of recapturing its key support at the 77.13/00 levels. A cut through here will target further declines towards the 76.49 level and then the 76.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. On the upside, the pair must break and hold above the 79.64 level to halt its broader bearishness. This if seen could push the pair further lower towards the 80.59 level where a breach will turn attention to the 81.77 level. All in all, USDJPY remains biased to the downside in the medium term.

 

USDCHF –Pressure Remains On The 0.9238 Level.

USDCHF: With an attempt on the upside failing and USDCHF closing marginally higher the past week, the risk of returning to the 0.9238 level continues to build up. If this occurs in the new week, further declines could shape up towards the 0.9193 level, its May 07’2012 low where a breach will aim at the 0.9100 level and ultimately the 0.9000 level, its big psycho level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair will have to return above the 0. 9424 level to annul its current weakness and then resume its bullish offensive towards its Sept 10'2012 high at 0.9482. A cut through here will open up further upside gain towards the 0.9606 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the short term.

 

Daily Technical Strategist: EURJPY

EURJPY- Our bias on EURJPY remains higher as long as it trades and holds above the 99.63 level. This development leaves the cross targeting the 103.85 level where a violation will pave the way for a run at the 104.42 level and possibly higher towards the 105.00 level. On the downside, support lies at the 100.70 level where a violation will open the door for a move lower towards the 99.63/86 levels. The pair may see a respite here and turn higher. But if this fails, support lies at the 97.80 level where a break will call for a push lower towards the 95.72 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside

 

EURUSD: Opens Up Further Upside Risks, Pressures Key Resistance

EURUSD: The pair broke and held above the 1.3073 level on Tuesday, opening the door for more upside offensive. This has set the stage for a run at the 1.3171 levels with a breach of here resuming its broader uptrend towards the 1.3282 level. A cut through here will call for a move further higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher. Conversely, to annul its present bull offensive, a break and hold below the 1.2824 level must occur. This level is key as a break and hold below here could push EUR deeper towards the 1.2755 level. We expect a cap to occur here and possibly turn the pair higher again. If broken, expect further declines to develop towards the 1.2625 level. All in all, EUR faces further upside threats.

 

GOLD: Remains In Corrective Mode.

GOLD: While GOLD may be retaining its broader medium term uptrend, it continues to face downside vulnerability. Support lies at the 1,736.15 level where we expect a halt to occur and turn the commodity higher but if this fails to occur, expect further declines towards the 1,700 level. Further down, support lies at the 1,640.45 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1,790 level on ending its present bear threats. A violation will resume its medium term uptrend and open more upside risk towards the 1,800.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.850 level where a violation will call for a move higher towards the 1,900 level and then the 1,950.00 level. All in all, GOLD continues to hold on to its medium term bullish tone but faces bear threats.

 

The Week Ahead - GBPUSD

GBPUSD: Bearish, On The Defensive.

GBPUSD: With GBP weak and vulnerable into the new week, it faces further bear threats towards its Oct 09’2012 low at 1.5976. On a decisive break and hold below here, the stage will be set for more declines towards the 1.5774/78 level with breach turning attention to the 1.5457 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. Alternatively, GBP will have to return above the 1.6177 level to reverse its present weakness. This if seen will pave the way for a run at the 1.6215 level. This could push the pair further higher towards the 1.6350 level. A breach will allow for more gains towards the 1.6400 level. On the whole, GBP continues to face downside pressure as it looks to weaken further.

 

GOLD: Sells Off, Targets The 1,700 Level.

GOLD: GOLD continues to weaken selling off strongly the past week and opening the door for more declines. Support lies at the 1,700.00 level on continued weakness where we expect a halt to occur and turn the commodity higher but if this fails to occur, expect further declines towards the 1,640.45 level level. Further down, support lies at the 1,600.o level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1,790 level on ending its present bear threats. A violation of here will resume its medium term uptrend towards the 1,800.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.850 level where a violation will call for a move higher towards the 1,900 level and then the 1,950.00 level. All in all, GOLD continues to hold on to its corrective pullback tone as it looks to weaken further.

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