Daily Technical Outlook - page 5

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GOLD: Recovering With Caution

GOLD: Recovery attempts continue to occur leaving the commodity threatening further upside. This leaves the 1,703 level as the next upside target followed by the 1,720 level. We expect its declining trendline (red) resistance to cap further upside gains if seen. While that level caps, there is still downside risk. In such a case, the 1,640.45 level will be targeted with a cut through there allowing for a push further lower towards the 1,600.00 level. A respite is likely to occur here and turn the commodity higher. All in all, GOLD may be recovering but remains vulnerable to the downside short term below trendline resistance.

 

EURGBP: Vulnerable On Correction.

EURGBP- While EURGBP may be extending its weakness, its rising trendline support currently at 0.8067 level is likely to hold when tested. It is currently hesitating ahead of that level suggesting that a return above the 0.8242 level may occur on a hold at or above the mentioned trendline. Above the 0.8242 level could pave the way for a run at the 0.8300 level. Alternatively, support lies at the 0.8067 level where its trendline is located. Further down, the cross will have to break and hold below its trendline support (red) to put its broader upside bias in danger. In such a case, the 0.7960 level will be targeted. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside on correction.

 

USDJPY: Rallies, Pressure Builds On The 88.50/89.00 Levels.

USDJPY: A strong rally has seen the pair reversed its Thursday losses and opened the door for more gains in the days ahead. This development leaves USDJPY targeting the 89.00 level, its psycho level with a violation of there paving the way for more upside towards the 89.50 level and then the 90.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 90.50 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support comes in at the 86.78 level where a reversal of roles is likely to occur and turn the pair back up. However, a cut through here if seen will set the stage for more declines towards the 85.65 level. Further down, support comes in at the 85.00 level. All in all, USDJPY continues to retain its medium term uptrend.

 

USDCHF- Recovers But Still Vulnerable Short Term.

USDCHF: The pair held off lower prices and turned higher on correction the past week suggesting further upside. However, the barrier is its declining trendline (red) which must be broken to extend the mentioned correction. As long as the trendline remains there as resistance, there is risk of USDCHF returning to the 0.9082 level. If this is broken further weakness will aim at the 0.9041 level where a breach will turn attention to the 0.9000 level. Price hesitation may occur here due to its psychological importance. On the other hand, if taken out, the pair will target the 0.8929 level. On the upside, the pair will have to return above its trendline resistance to build on its recovery towards the 0.9382 level. This if seen will bring further upside offensive towards the 0.9456 level followed by the 0.9511 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the short term below its trendline resistance despite recovery attempts.

 

CRUDE OIL: Continues To Maintain Its Upside Bias.

CRUDE OIL: With the commodity continuing to maintain a firm hold on the upside, further strength is envisaged. Immediate resistance lies at the 93.63/81 levels with a break targeting the 94.50 level. As long as Crude Oil holds and trades above the 90.30 level, our upside bias on the commodity remains intact. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Support lies at the 91.51 level where a violation will target the 90.30 level. A reversal of roles may occur here. Further down, support comes in at the 89.98 level where a violation will call for a run at the 87.94 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains biased to the upside above its key resistance at 90.30 level.

 

EURGBP: Recovery Tone Set, Eyes Further Upside.

EURGBP- Having halted its corrective declines and turned higher for a third-day in a row, the risk is for more upside to occur. This development now leaves the cross threatening further upside with possibility of returning to the 0.8186 level on the cards. A cut through here will call for a run at the 0.8224 level. Above here could pave the way for a run at the 0.8300 level. Alternatively, support lies at the 0.8104 level and the 0.8067 level where its trendline is located. Further down, the cross will have to break and hold below its trendline support (red) to put its broader upside bias in danger. In such a case, the 0.7960 level will be targeted. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside having ended its correction.

 

AUDUSD: Upside Risk Points To Key Resistance.

AUDUSD: We continue to hold our upside bias on AUDUSD as it looks to return to the 1.0531/86 level. In such a case, further upside risk could be seen towards the 1.0623 level, its Sept 2012 high. A cut through here will set the stage for a push higher towards the 1.0700 level. On the downside, support stands at the 1.0403 level where breach will call for a run at the 1.0349 level and then the 1.0300 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.0234 level All in all, the pair maintains its broader upside bias despite bear threats.

 

EURUSD: Set To Extend Its Bullishness.

EURUSD: Having taken out its key resistance at the 1.3307 level to close the week higher, further upside offensive is envisaged. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3350 level followed by the 1.3400 level. A cut through here will open the door for more upside towards the 13500 level. Conversely, support stands at the 1.3307 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur and turn EUR back up. However, if this fails, further downside will follow towards the 1.3200 level followed by the 1.3000 level. Further down, support comes in at its trendline support and its 200 daily ema at 1.2944/21 levels. All in all, EUR continues to retain its broader medium term upside bias.

 

EURGBP: Continues To Maintain Its Medium Term Uptrend Despite Hesitation

EURGBP- With EURGBP holding firmly above the 0.8224 level, the risk is for more upside offensive to occur. Despite its current price hesitation, upside threat remains towards the 0.8350 level followed by the 0.8400 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, support lies at the 0.8280 level, its Jan 14’2013 low. A break of here will push the cross further lower towards 0.8224 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur and turn it higher. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8186 level followed by the 0.8104 All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside with eyes on the 0.8350 level.

 

CRUDE OIL: Strengthens, Triggers Medium Term Uptrend.

CRUDE OIL: Our outlook on Crude Oil remains to the upside in the medium term. With the commodity resuming that trend today, further bullish offensive is likely towards the 96.15 level with a violation of here turning attention to the 97.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 98.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support lies at the 94.67 level where a violation will call for a run at the 93.63 level. Further down, support comes in at the 91.50 level and then the 90.30 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains biased to the upside in the medium term.

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