Update - Daily Technical Levels from FXCC - page 38
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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 18 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 18 2013
Fiscal negotiations hope to avoid destabilizing a fragile US economy
The remainder of 2012 and early 2013 has thus far been dominated by the “fiscal cliff” negotiations in Washington and the unfinished business associated with them. The repercussions of these political decisions will have far-reaching consequences on the economy, confidence, financial markets and perhaps most importantly, the US credit rating. In the immediate sense, automatic tax increases and mandatory spending cuts set to go into effect in January, amounting to as much as 5% of GDP would – if implemented – most likely drive an already fragile US economy into recession. “By contrast, a ‘kicking the can down the road; solution or underlying mentality of extending all tax cuts and forestalling any spending cuts would only simply defer many tough decisions and would likely lead to another US credit downgrade and weaker business and consumer confidence.” warns Larry V. Adam, an analyst at Deutsche Bank.
We believe that Congressional leaders will ultimately avoid these two extreme alternatives and form a compromise, however in a two- stage process. The first phase will include not extending the payroll tax cut and additional unemployment benefits into next year. The proceeds will be used as a down payment to avoid the implementation of the “sequestration” (i.e. automatic) cuts and allow the Bush-era tax cuts to be extended for an additional six months. In addition, leaders will then develop a “framework” of reduced tax deductions, possible tax increases, targeted spending cuts and entitlement reform to agree upon a more comprehensive long-term solution in a second phase of negotiations early next year. Ultimately, “assuming a fiscal cliff compromise is achieved in Washington that prudently balances growth and austerity, a recession will likely be averted.” Adam suggests. However, the US economy will grow at a tepid 2% rate over 2013 as a whole, as the “fiscal cliff,” even in its modified form, could cause a drag of approximately 1.5% to GDP. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/18012013/
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-01-18 09:00 GMT | Italy. Industrial Orders n.s.a (YoY) (Nov)
2013-01-18 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)
2013-01-18 13:30 GMT | Switzerland. Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (Nov)
2013-01-18 14:55 GMT | United States. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Jan)Preliminar
Forex News
2013-01-18 04:59 GMT | USD/JPY correction lower may not be complete – Commerzbank
2013-01-18 03:43 GMT | Euro bulls ready to rock
2013-01-18 03:37 GMT | USD/CHF surrenders gains and trading at 0.9310/13
2013-01-18 01:16 GMT | EUR/JPY rallies through 119.00 after Spain and Van Rompuy
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
---------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.33913 LOW 1.33614 BID 1.33818 ASK 1.33824 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 07:56:11
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: A positive market tone dominates on the hourly chart frame and further buying interest might arise above the key resistance at 1.3394 (R1). A break through here would suggest next target at 1.3420 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect an exposure of 1.3446 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today limits recovery attempts for now. Next support level stays right below it at 1.3358 (S1). Break here would suggest next target at 1.3329 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited by last support at 1.3302 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3394, 1.3420, 1.3446
Support Levels: 1.3358, 1.3329, 1.3302
-----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.6006 LOW 1.59636 BID 1.59857 ASK 1.59867 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 07:56:12
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: The short- term tendency is bearish as both moving averages are pointing up however risk of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 1.5989 (R1). Clearance here would open way for towards to next targets at 1.6005 (R2) and 1.6021 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low, formed today is pointing to key short-term support level at 1.5963 (S1). Decline below it would suggest next intraday target at 1.5949 (S2) and any further easing would then be targeting 1.5933 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5989, 1.6005, 1.6021
Support Levels: 1.5963, 1.5949, 1.5933
----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 90.205 LOW 89.634 BID 90.049 ASK 90.055 CHANGE 0.21% TIME 07:56:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: The next hurdle on the upside lies at 90.21 (R1), any uptrend action above it would put in focus resistance barrier at 90.43 (R2) as the near-term target. Next on tap is final resistance at 90.64 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the 89.64 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective and start forming retracement formation. In such scenario our potential targets locates at 89.42 (S2) and 89.20 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 90.21, 90.43, 90.64
Support Levels: 89.64, 89.42, 89.20
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex ECN Brokers List | Auto Forex Trading Account | FXCC )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 21 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 21 2013
Merkel’s CDU loses Lower Saxony election; setback to her national campaign
Angela Merkel’s ruling centre-right coalition government suffered yet another defeat on this Sunday’s local elections, in what the Financial Times defines as a controversial election in the state of Lower Saxony, according to final forecasts of German television. After early speculation that the result would be a narrow win for Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the Social Democratic party (SDP) and its varies Green party ties managed to gather enough votes to reach a 1 seat majority.
Preliminary final results for Lower Saxony: CDU 36%, SPD 32,6%, FDP 9,9%, Grüne 13,7%, Linke 3,1%. SPD & Grüne coalition gets them a 1 seat majority. Other coalitions possible, yet bottom line is that CDU loses. FT: “A victory for the SPD and Greens could give a boost to their national campaign to replace Ms Merkel’s government in September. But the chancellor’s personal popularity has given the CDU a 17-point lead over the SPD in recent opinion polls.”
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: January 21 2013
Forex Economic Calendar
N/A | E.M.U. Eurogrup meeting
2013-01-21 07:00 GMT | Germany. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Dec)
2013-01-21 08:15 GMT | Switzerland. Industrial Production (YoY) (Q3)
2013-01-21 13:30 GMT | Canada. Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Nov)
Forex News
2013-01-21 06:38 GMT | EUR/USD steady in Asia
2013-01-21 05:54 GMT | EUR/GBP off 5-month highs; stalls below 0.8400
2013-01-21 05:24 GMT | FED to continue QE purchases thru 2014 – RBS
2013-01-21 04:02 GMT | GBP/AUD off fresh 5-month lows at 1.5060
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
----------------------------
EURUSD
HIGH: 1.33301 | LOW: 1.3302 | BID: 1.33226 | ASK: 1.33235 | CHANGE: 0.07% | TIME: 08:30:48
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD established next resistance at 1.3334 (R1), above which is seen possibility of uptrend formation in near –term perspective. Our bullish targets appears at 1.3356 (R2) and 1.3378 (R3). Downwards scenario: The downside remains favored direction for today. The 1.3302 (S1) would be the key support level. Decline below it might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 1.3282 (S2) and 1.3262 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3334, 1.3356, 1.3378
Support Levels: 1.3302, 1.3282, 1.3262
-------------------
GBPUSD
HIGH: 1.58733 | LOW: 1.58446 | BID: 1.58718 | ASK: 1.58727 | CHANGE: -0.01% |TIME: 08:30:50
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low
Upwards scenario: Instrument lost downside momentum an currently moves in correction mode. Market appreciation is possible above the resistance at 1.5884 (R1). Any upside corrections above this point will then be targeting next resistances at 1.5908 (R2) and 1.5931 (R3). Downwards scenario: Short-term bears expected to be in play below the next support level at 1.5846 (S1). Clearance of this level I required to open way towards to next targets at 1.5825 (S2) and 1.5805 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5884, 1.5908, 1.5931
Support Levels: 1.5846, 1.5525, 1.5805
---------------------------
USDJPY
HIGH: 90.245 | LOW: 89.425 | BID: 89.591 | ASK: 89.596 | CHANGE: -0.53% | TIME: 08:30:55
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low
Upwards scenario: Currently price deviates from its high after the clear uptrend formation on the hourly chart. Buyers have their next challenge at 89.76 (R1). Break through here would suggest next initial targets at 89.98 (R2) and 90.18 (R3).Downwards scenario: Our next support level is placed at 89.42 (S1), that buyers will try to defend. Any extension lower is being able to drive market price towards to our intraday targets at 89.24 (S2) and 89.05 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 89.76, 89.98, 90.18
Support Levels: 89.42, 89.24, 89.05
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 22 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 22 2013
Jeroen Dijsselbloem, appointed new head of the Eurogroup
Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Dutch Finance Minister, has been confirmed as the new president of the Eurogroup. As a peculiar note, German finance minister Mr. Schauble said Spain did not support the appointment of Dijsselbloem for head of the Eurogroup. The Eurogroup press conference started with the outgoing Eurogroup president Jean-Claude Juncker, saying that the EU agreed with the IMF that fiscal consolidation should be continued in differentiated manner.
With regards to Cyprus, Juncker noted that the Eurozone finance ministers had delayed a €17bn bailout until March this year, amid concerns of the sizeable rescue package. Juncker had a special mention for Spain too, expressing please that the banking program remains on track. While for Ireland, Juncker said that "Ireland is a living example that adjustment programs work" Meanwhile, after reports that Greece may need an additional €9.2 Bln, the bloc's finance ministers reportedly support the disbursement in further support for Greece. Eurogroup ‘noted with satisfaction’ the progress on the Greek rescue program. When the floor was given to Oliver Rehn, European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, he said the eurogroup has taken stock of progress on direct bank recapitalisation. He cited some ‘complex technical issues’ remain on direct recaps.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/22012013/
Forex Economic Calendar
N/A | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Statement and press conference
N/A | E.M.U EcoFin Meeting
2013-01-22 15:00 | GMT United States. Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Dec)
2013-01-22 18:00 | GMT E.M.U. ECB President Draghi's Speech
Forex News
2013-01-22 05:25 GMT | EUR/USD has a daily range to resolve
2013-01-22 05:15 GMT | GBP/USD bounces at Fibo 1.5820, stalls below 1.5860
2013-01-22 04:41 GMT | USD/JPY buyers faked out; 88.90 lowest after 90.00 kiss
2013-01-22 03:21 GMT | AUD/USD launched higher; cracks 1.0520/30 resistance
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3358 LOW 1.33005 BID 1.33459 ASK 1.33466 CHANGE 0.26% TIME 07 : 56:12
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: We expect that instrument remain largely static in the near term perspective however resistive structure holds above the fresh high at 1.3358 (R1). Break here would suggest 1.3378 (R2) and 1.3399 (R3) as next possible targets. Downwards scenario: We would change our outlook to the negative if the price manage to depreciate below the support at 1.3323 (S1). Loss here might trigger correction formation towards to next targets at 1.3302 (S2) and 1.3282 (S3)
Resistance Levels: 1.3358, 1.3378, 1.3399
Support Levels: 1.3323, 1.3302, 1.3282
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.5861 LOW 1.58256 BID 1.58594 ASK 1.58603 CHANGE 0.19% TIME 07 : 56:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument looks oversold on the hourly chart and retracement formation looks reasonable above the next resistive barrier at 1.5864 (R1). Our higher retracement targets locates at 1.5884 (R2) and then 1.5904 (R3). Downwards scenario: We expect to see further negative bias formation today if the pair manages to overcome our support level at 1.5839 (S1). Our downside targets lies at 1.5819 (S2) and 1.5798 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.5864, 1.5884, 1.5904
Support Levels: 1.5839, 1.5819, 1.5798
USDJPY :
HIGH 90.112 LOW 88.89 BID 89.149 ASK 89.156 CHANGE -0.55% TIME 07 : 56:14
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument stabilized after the local low, provided today. Consolidation development might keep bulls in play for eventual targets at 89.49 (R2) and 89.66 (R3) if the market mange to push through key resistive barrier at 89.33 (R1). Downwards scenario: Further market decline may encounter supportive measure at 88.88 (S1). Penetration through this level would risk an extension lower targeting our next support levels at 88.71 (S2) and 88.55 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 89.33, 89.49, 89.66
Support Levels: 88.88, 88.71, 88.55
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Free Forex Demo Accounts | Top ECN Forex Broker | Forex Blog | FXCC )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 23 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 23 2013
Eurogroup approves Robin Hood tax
Eleven Eurozone countries (Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Austria, Portugal, Belgium, Estonia, Greece, Slovakia and Slovenia) have been authorized to start working on a financial transactions tax (the so-called Robin Hood tax). Eurozone finance ministers have given the green light to the measure today, during the Eurogroup meeting held in Brussels. The tax is based on an idea put forward by the economist James Tobin over forty years ago and its current application is aimed at controlling banks and speculative activities, such as high frequency operations, as each agreement will be taxed.
The Spanish Tesoro Público held a debt auction on Tuesday during which it sold 2.9 billion euros worth of 3- and 6- month bonds. 1.206 billion euros of 3-month bonds were auctioned at an average yield of 0.441%, compared with 1.195% seen at the previous auction. 1.578 billion euros worth of 6-month bonds, were sold at an average yield of 0.888% versus the previous 1.609%. Following the auction Spanish risk premium remained at the level of 355 points.
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: January 23 2013
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-01-23 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Bank of England Minutes
2013-01-23 14:00 GMT | United States. Housing Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
2013-01-23 15:00 GMT| Canada. BoC Interest Rate Decision (Jan 23)
2013-01-23 16:15 GMT | Canada. BoC Press Conference
Forex News
2013-01-23 05:45 GMT | Traders defend EUR/USD range tooth and nail
2013-01-23 05:44 GMT | USD/JPY moves below mid term ascending trend line, still above 88.00
2013-01-23 05:17 GMT | GBP/USD holds above 1.5800 ahead of a busy day for the pair
2013-01-23 04:36 GMT | GBP/JPY in the brink of post-BoJ lows
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
----------------------
EURUSD
HIGH: 1.33295 | LOW: 1.33046 | BID: 1.33140 | ASK: 1.33147 | CHANGE: -0.05% | TIME: 08 : 02:05
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: We place our next resistance level at 1.3321 (R1). One should note here that in case of penetration above it opens the way for a return to 1.3331 (R2) and potential is seen to reach final target for today at 1.3340 (R3). Downwards scenario: The downside formation might face next supportive barrier at 1.3302 (S1). Clearance here is required to open way towards to our next target at 1.3292 (S2) and any further fall would then be targeting 1.3282 (R3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3321, 1.3331, 1.3340
Support Levels: 1.3302, 1.3292, 1.3282
---------------------
GBPUSD
HIGH: 1.5844 | LOW: 1.58236 | BID: 1.58350 | ASK: 1.58359 | CHANGE: -0.02% | TIME: 08 : 02:06
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
Upwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook is negative for the GBPUSD though possibility of price deviation is seen above the next resistance at 1.5849 (R1). Retracement targets could be found at 1.5874 (R2) and 1.5897 (R3). Downwards scenario: In near term we expect the extension of the downside move over intraday basis today. Risk of price depreciation holds below the next support level at 1.5817 (S1). Loss here might expose next targets at 1.5794 (S2) and 1.5771 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5849, 1.5874, 1.5897
Support Levels: 1.5817, 1.5794, 1.5771
-----------------------
USDJPY
HIGH: 88.791 | LOW: 88.254 | BID: 88.325 | ASK: 88.332 | CHANGE: -0.43% | TIME: 08 : 02:07
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: Next immediate resistive barrier is seen at 88.69 (R1). If instrument gains momentum on the upside and manage to overcome it we expect to see retest of our intraday targets at 88.84 (R2) and 88.99 (R3) on the intraday basis. Downwards scenario: The USDJPY is poised to move lower on the medium-term perspective. Next barrier ahead is seen at 88.14 (S1).A break below this mark would suggest next intraday targets at 87.97 (R2) and 87.83 (R3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 88.69, 88.84, 88.99
Support Levels: 88.14, 87.97, 87.83
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Broker | Forex Practice Account | Forex Trading Blog | FXCC )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 24 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 24 2013
MARKET OVERVIEW
2013-01-24 05:50 GMT
BoE Minutes: MPC voted unanimously to keep the interest rate at 0.5%
BoE Minutes from the MPC monetary policy meeting held on 9 and 10 January and released yesterdday reveal that the Committee voted unanimously in favor of keeping the interest rate at 0.5%. As far as the proposition to maintain the stock of asset purchases at £375 billion is concerned, eight MPC members voted in favor while one voted against. David Miles who voted against preferred to boost the QE program by a further £25 billion to a total of £400 billion.
According to the minutes, the MPC “judged that it was not necessary at this meeting to change either Bank Rate or the size of the asset purchase programme in order to meet the inflation target in the medium term,” as the economic developments throughout December had been “modestly positive”. David Miles argued however that “an easing of monetary policy, in part by discouraging any further appreciation of sterling, could help the rebalancing process and avoid potentially lasting destruction of productive capacity and increases in unemployment.”
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: January 24 2013
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-01-24 08:58 GMT | E.M.U. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
2013-01-24 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. BBA Mortgage Approvals (Dec)
2013-01-24 13:58 GMT | United States. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
2013-01-24 23:50 GMT | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Forex News
2013-01-24 04:56 GMT | AUD/NZD threatens 1-month low above 1.2450
2013-01-24 04:32 GMT | EUR/JPY above 118.50 on broad Yen weakness
2013-01-24 04:03 GMT | USD/JPY reaches 89.30; 120+pips since London low
2013-01-24 00:53 GMT | EUR/USD resting above 1.3300
AUDUSD NZDUSD USDCHF USDCAD GBPJPY EURCHF GOLD SILVER
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
------------------
EURUSD
HIGH: 1.33246 | LOW: 1.32972 | BID: 1.33166 | ASK: 1.33175 | CHANGE: -0.01% | TIME: 07 : 49:26
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market sentiment looks neutral and upside movement is limited to resistance level at 1.3325 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 1.3333 (R2) and any further gain would then be limited to last resistance at 1.3342 (R3). Downwards scenario: Bearish market sentiment could be created if the price manages to overcome our next support level at 1.3294 (S1). A violation here might call for a run towards to lower targets at 1.3289 (S2) and 1.3280 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3325, 1.3333, 1.3342
Support Levels: 1.3294, 1.3289, 1.3280
-----------------------
GBPUSD
HIGH: 1.58439 | LOW: 1.58124 | BID: 1.58324 | ASK: 1.58334 | CHANGE: -0.08% | TIME: 07 : 49:27
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: Sideways formation remains in power on the hourly timeframe. GBPUSD might find buyers above the important resistance level at 1.5849 (R1). Break here would open route towards to our next resistances at 1.5872 (R2) and 1.5894 (R3) on the intraday basis. Downwards scenario: If market failed to establish positive bias, we expect retest of our key support level at 1.5813 (S1). Break here is required to enable initial targets at 1.5791 (S2) and final one at 1.5768 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5849, 1.5872, 1.5894
Support Levels: 1.5813, 1.5791, 1.5768
-----------------------
USDJPY
HIGH: 89.453 | LOW: 88.414 | BID: 89.323 | ASK: 89.328 | CHANGE: 0.8% | TIME: 07 : 49:28
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 89.47 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way for a stronger move towards to our targets at 89.67 (R2) and 89.86 (R3) in case of sufficient momentum. Downwards scenario: Our focus now shifted to the next support level at 89.10 (S1). Extension of losses below it might push price towards to our targets at 88.89 (S2) and 88.69 (S3) by forming retracement formation from its initial upside penetration.
Resistance Levels: 89.47, 89.67, 89.86
Support Levels: 89.10, 88.89, 88.69
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Software | The Best Forex Broker | Forex Account | FXCC )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 25 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 25 2013
The Euro is here to stay; momentum is for higher Euro and lower Yen
The emblematic investor George Soros, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davo (Switzerland) told the audience that "the euro is now here to stay," according to Bloomberg. Soros was one of the main detractor of the shared-currency back in June last year, when structural problems in Europe were escalating, peripheral yields were going through the roof, and another long list resulting on a grey outlook for the currency. However, once the ECB President Mario Draghi sent the famous message "the ECB will do whatever it takes to save the euro", only then, a change in Soros' opinions started to form, thus he shared with the audience that the immediate crisis is over.
Although he stressed that "there is no time for complacency, and that austerity is not what Europe needs right now" notes Matthew Boesler from Business Insider. Soros added that the next 12 to 24 months will still be "very tense," as Germany will continue to err on the side of caution when taking bold actions needed to re-assure to investors the survival of the euro. Further comments from Soros, courtesy of Tony Connelly, Europe Editor for RTE News, Ireland's public service broadcaster: "The momentum is for the euro to rise and the Yen to fall, but it will be resisted by the US. The divergence between the Yen and euro will be aggravated, will badly affect Germany. Europe is an outlier in that it's not involved in quantitave easing."
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/25012013/
Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A All. | World Economic Forum - Davos
2013-01-25 09:30 GMT | United kingdom. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4)Preliminar
2013-01-25 13:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Dec)
2013-01-25 15:00 GMT | United States. New Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)
Forex News :
2013-01-25 06:24 GMT | USD/JPY at fresh cycle highs; Japan deflation same as it ever was
2013-01-25 05:49 GMT | EUR/USD communicating a 1.34 breakout?
2013-01-25 05:43 GMT | EUR/GBP threatening fresh 11-month highs above 0.8470
2013-01-25 05:10 GMT | GBP/JPY erases all weekly loses back above 142.50
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.33791 LOW 1.33497 BID 1.33664 ASK 1.33671 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08:39:31
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Our next resistance level lie at 1.3380 (R1). Rise above it might provide sufficient space for the appreciation towards to next target at 1.3392 (R2). Further market increase above it would face final resistance at 1.3403 (R3).Downwards scenario: We placed our support level right below the local low formed today at 1.3349 (S1). Break here would be essential to begin the short-term bearish momentum. Initial targets could be found at 1.3339 (S2) and 1.3329 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3380, 1.3392, 1.3403
Support Levels: 1.3349, 1.3339, 1.3329
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.57908 LOW 1.57614 BID 1.57656 ASK 1.57664 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08:39:32
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Risk of price appreciation is seen above the next resistance level at 1.5796 (R1). Surpassing of this level would suggest next target at 1.5819 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting 1.5841 (R3).Downwards scenario: If market holds its downside momentum, we expect attack to the next support level at 1.5756 (S1). Successful retest of this level would open way towards to initial targets at 1.5733 (S2) and 1.5710 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5796, 1.5819, 1.5841
Support Levels: 1.5756, 1.5733, 1.5710
-----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 90.685 LOW 90.291 BID 90.519 ASK 90.526 CHANGE 0.21% TIME 08:39:33
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Medium-term bias is clearly positive after the sufficient price appreciation yesterday. Fresh high formed today acts now as next resistance level at 90.68 (R1). Above here open way towards to next targets at 90.88 (R2) and then at 91.07 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the slightly short term perspective correction development looks reasonable. Below the fresh low formed today locates our next support level at 90.29 (S1). Break here is required to open a route towards to next targets at 90.08 (S2) and potentially to 89.88 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 90.68, 90.88, 91.07
Support Levels: 90.29, 90.08, 89.88
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 28 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 28 2013
MARKET OVERVIEW
Euro rallies on LTRO payback
The European Central Bank announced on Friday that 278 Eurozone banks would repay 137.2 billion euro borrowed in December 2011 under the 3-year Long Term Repo Operation (LTRO). The first early paybacks would take place on January 30. This is a larger amount of early repayments than the market consensus of 100 billion euros and approximately 30% of the December 2011 loans, “but it continues to leave open the question of how much will be repaid when the next €529.5bn becomes eligible for repayment on February 27th (to be announced Feb 22),” as Richard Kelly, Head of European Rates and FX Research at TD Securities points out. The expert predicts that it is “likely to be less than today’s figure, perhaps around the €75-100bn range for a total repayment of €200-225bn, slightly about our initial €150bn estimates.”
ECB head Mario Draghi said today at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that the sovereign bond purchase program (OMT) would remain active for “as long as necessary.” He also added that the Eurozone will benefit from ECB’s accommodative policy. Draghi affirmed that the LTRO program had helped avoid a credit crunch and contributed to restoring a relative calm in the Eurozone. The ECB chief also emphasized the importance of the implementation of structural reforms and said that he expects the Eurozone to recover by the end of the year. Finally, Draghi went over the measures introduced by the ECB throughout 2012 and signalized that the challenge for this year would be to overcome the fragmentation which still differentiates financial and capital markets and causes inequality in financing.-FXstreet.com
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: January 28 2013
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-01-28 13:30 GMT | United States. Durable Goods Orders (Dec)
2013-01-28 15:00 GMT | United States. Pending Home Sales (YoY) (Dec)
2013-01-28 21:45 GMT | Australia. Trade Balance (MoM) (Dec)
2013-01-28 23:00 GMT | Australia. CB Leading Indicator (Nov)
Forex News
2013-01-28 05:47 GMT | EUR/GBP above 0.8540; biggest monthly gain in 4 years
2013-01-28 05:34 GMT | EUR/USD, 1.35 the catalyst for greater gains?
2013-01-28 04:43 GMT | GBP/USD holds above 1.5750 lows
2013-01-28 04:10 GMT | AUD/JPY limited below fresh 4-years high area around 95.00
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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EURUSD
HIGH: 1.34711 | LOW: 1.34502 | BID: 1.34522 | ASK: 1.34527 | CHANGE: -0.01% | TIME: 08 : 41:09
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Further upwards formation is limited to resistive measure at 1.3479 (R1). A break above it would suggest next target at 1.3492 (R2). If the price holds its momentum we can expect price increase towards to 1.3506 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument trapped to the consolidation formation after its initial uptrend development. Risk of further depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.3447 (S1). Clearance here might put selling pressure to the pair and enable next targets at 1.3433 (S2) and 1.3418 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3479, 1.3492, 1.3506
Support Levels: 1.3447, 1.3433, 1.3418
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GBPUSD
HIGH: 1.5785 | LOW: 1.57534 | BID: 1.57585 | ASK: 1.57594 | CHANGE: -0.23% | TIME: 08 : 41:10
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low
Upwards scenario: Instrument trades under the descending channel formation, though market recovery is possible above the next resistance at 1.5786 (R1). Break here is required for further appreciation towards to our initial targets at 1.5808 (R2) and 1.5830 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price manages to overcome our key support at 1.5745 (S1), we expect to see downtrend development towards to our next target at 1.5725 (S2) and any further depreciation would then be limited to 1.5704 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5786, 1.5808, 1.5830
Support Levels: 1.5745, 1.5725, 1.5704
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USDJPY
HIGH: 91.255 | LOW: 90.833 | BID: 90.874 | ASK: 90.881 | CHANGE: 0.03% | TIME: 08 : 41:11
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low
Upwards scenario: USDJPY formed clearly positive market sentiments but recently lost some momentum on the upside. Appreciation above the 91.26 (R1) might push the price towards to our next target at 91.48 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting resistance at 91.70 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although consolidation development looks reasonable on the hourly timeframe. If the market break below the next support at 90.76 (S1), we suggest next targets to be placed at 90.54 (S2) and 90.32 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 91.26, 91.48, 91.70
Support Levels: 90.76, 90.54, 90.32
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Broker Account | Currency Converter | Forex Blog | FXCC )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 29 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 29 2013
MARKET OVERVIEW
Eurozone periphery nations recover up to €100bn in private funds – FT
On its front cover, the Financial Times highlights the growing capital flocking back to Eurozone’s peripheral countries, with the sum amounting over €100bn of private funds since late last year. From the FT: “The scale of the net inflows, equivalent to about 9% of the economic output of Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and Greece according to calculations by ING, highlight the revival in investor confidence in Europe’s monetary union after Mario Draghi, ECB president, pledged to preserve its integrity.”
However, as the Financial Times stresses, the private inflows are still little if compared to the far larger outflows from 2011/2012, a time when the Eurozone tail risk led many investors to remove huge sums of money from debt-exposed countries. The FT adds: “Total net private inflows into the periphery countries totalled €93bn in the last four months of 2012, according to ING. In contrast, the first eight months had seen €406bn flow out of the five countries, equivalent to almost 20 per cent of gross domestic product in the periphery economies. In 2011, outflows from the periphery totalled €300bn.”
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/29012013/
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-01-29 07:00 GMT | Germany. Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Feb)
2013-01-29 15:00 GMT | United States. Consumer Confidence (Jan)
2013-01-29 21:45 GMT | Australia. Building Permits s.a. (MoM) (Dec)
2013-01-29 23:50 GMT | Japan. Large Retailer’s Sales (Dec)
Forex News
2013-01-29 05:50 GMT | EUR/USD, calm before next bullish storm?
2013-01-29 05:34 GMT | GBP/USD above 1.5700; stalling the fall ahead of key Fibo
2013-01-29 05:04 GMT | FED to keep easing in the near term – NAB
2013-01-29 03:49 GMT | AUD/JPY pressing against fresh 4-year highs sub-95.00
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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EURUSD
HIGH: 1.34604 | LOW: 1.3443 | BID: 1.34470 | ASK: 1.34477 | CHANGE: -0.05% | TIME: 08:45:44
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Instrument stabilized and we expect neutral formation development prior further volatility increase. Intraday bull’s power might activate when the pair approach resistance level at 1.3463 (R1). Our next target is seen at 1.3476 (R2) and 1.3489 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Next support comes at 1.3441 (S1) level. Loss here might shift market sentiment to bearish and price could accelerate towards to the next targets at 1.3429 (S2) and 1.3416 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3463, 1.3476, 1.3489
Support Levels: 1.3441, 1.3429, 1.3416
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GBPUSD
HIGH: 1.57078 | LOW: 1.56853 | BID: 1.57035 | ASK: 1.57043 | CHANGE: 0.06% | TIME: 08:45:45
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low
Upwards scenario: Our resistance level at 1.5715 (R1) is our reference point for the upside penetration. Break above it would suggest us about the further uptrend formation with possible targets at 1.5736 (R2) and 1.5756 (R3) in perspective. Downwards scenario: Yesterday low is acting now as key support level at 1.5673 (S1). Clearance here is required to keep the rally intact and expose lower targets at 1.5654 (S2) and 1.5635 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5715, 1.5736, 1.5756
Support Levels: 1.5673, 1.5654, 1.5635
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USDJPY
HIGH: 91.016 | LOW: 90.401 | BID: 90.794 | ASK: 90.798 | CHANGE: -0.02% | TIME: 08:45:46
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low
Upwards scenario: USDJPY continues to trade within same range price as yesterday. Next on tap is resistance level at 91.03 (R1). A break higher could open the door for an attack to the next target at 91.22 (R2). Final immediate resistance is seen at 91.42 (R3). Downwards scenario: Price might deviate to the lower end of the range in near term perspective to continue correction development. In regards of technical levels, next barrier is seen at 90.56 (S1). Decline below it might resume weakness towards to our initial targets 90.36 (S2) and 90.14 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 91.03, 91.22, 91.42
Support Levels: 90.56, 90.36, 90.14
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Broker List | Forex Trading Account | Currency Converter | FXCC )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 30 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 30 2013
MARKET OVERVIEW
Fed to leave rates unchanged in January and probably for the rest of the year
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is expected to be uneventful this month, following the FOMC’s announcement of open ended QE4 in December which would be finalized only when the unemployment rate falls below 6.5% or inflation accelerates above 2.5%. The lack of action would also be justified by the fact that “the fundamental picture remains relatively unchanged,” as Richard C. Lee points out. The analyst acknowledges that “pockets of the economy have improved over the last quarter” but nevertheless he believes that “the Federal Reserve will likely remain steadfast in its current policy direction for much of 2013.” Other analysts polled for the special forecast report agree with this opinion. Their projections are quite similar, with Yohay Elam suggesting that “rates will probably remain low until 2015, and less QE isn’t due until 2014,” Albero Muñoz predicting that “it’s not very likely that we have any change in monetary policy through 2013″ and Ilian Yotov saying that “the Fed will stay the course at its January meeting and quite possibly for the rest of the year.”
According to Yohay Elam the FOMC will rather concentrate on the economic outlook and it “could acknowledge the ongoing slow recovery and the lower level of political uncertainty as positive factors, but without any hint on policy change anytime soon.” Valeria Bednarik emphasizes however that if the members consider withdrawing QE gradually towards the end of the year we could expect “strong risk aversion rallies during the announcement, with dollar favored across the board.” The FOMC will release its monetary policy statement on January 30 at 19:15 GMT.
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: January 30 2013
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-01-30 10:00 GMT | E.M.U Consumer Confidence (Jan)
2013-01-30 13:30 GMT | United States. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4)Preliminar
2013-01-30 19:15 GMT | United States. US Fed Interest Rate Decision
2013-01-30 20:00 GMT | Australia. NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
Forex News
2013-01-30 06:46 GMT | EUR/USD remains capped by 1.3500
2013-01-30 05:37 GMT | GBP/USD capped underneath 1.5750
2013-01-30 04:24 GMT | Yen still weakest against all others
2013-01-30 01:54 GMT | AUD/JPY cracks 95.00 major resistance
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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EURUSD
HIGH: 1.34951 | LOW: 1.3482 | BID: 1.34864 | ASK: 1.34869 | CHANGE: -0.04% |TIME: 08 : 50:39
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: A buying interest pushed the Euro on the local high’s yesterday and determine positive bias in near term perspective. Successful attack to the 1.3498 (R1) price level might encourage uptrend formation with possible intraday targets at 1.3511 (R2) and 1.3525 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Clearance of next support level at 1.3477 (S1) might significantly stimulate Bearish oriented traders. Possible price devaluation would then be targeting supportive measures at 1.3464 (S2) and 1.3449 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3498, 1.3511, 1.3525
Support Levels: 1.3477, 1.3464, 1.3449
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GBPUSD
HIGH: 1.57641 | LOW: 1.57414 | BID: 1.57497 | ASK: 1.57506 | CHANGE: -0.08% | TIME: 08 : 50:40
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
Upwards scenario: The GBPUSD is now losing upside momentum after the former strength. Next resistance ahead is seen above the yesterday high at 1.5774 (R1). Rising up above this level would suggest next targets at 1.5793 (R2) and 1.5813 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Although market price remained relatively stable, depreciation below the next support level at 1.5728 (S1) might create negative traders sentiment. We expect that our intraday target at 1.5707 (S2) and 1.5685 (S3) could be exposed later on today in such case.
Resistance Levels: 1.5774, 1.5793, 1.5813
Support Levels: 1.5728, 1.5707, 1.5685
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USDJPY
HIGH: 91.031 | LOW: 90.661 | BID: 90.898 | ASK: 90.904 | CHANGE: 0.2% | TIME: 08 : 50:41
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High
Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches the 91.03 (R1), break here would suggest next target at 91.22 (R2). If the price holds its momentum on the upside we can expect final intraday resistive barrier at 91.42 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any penetration below our support level at 90.77 (S1) might create more scope for the USDJPY weakness in near-term perspective. We are looking to our immediate supports at 90.56 (S2) and 90.36 (S3) as next possible targets in such scenario.
Resistance Levels: 91.03, 91.22, 91.42
Support Levels: 90.77, 90.56, 90.36
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 31 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 31 2013
MARKET OVERVIEW
Moody’s: Greek default still a possibility
A Greek credit default should not be discarded, Moody’s rating agency stated on a report published Wednesday. With regards to the state of the Greek economy, projections are for the country to contract around 5% in 2013, differing by 0.5 bp from government expectations of 4.5%. The rating agency expects the contraction to run into 2014.
As ekathimerini notes: “In its analysis on Greece issued on Wednesday, Moody’s argues that the risks that could sink the country’s economy and therefore its credit rating are still existent. These include the risks in the implementation of the second bailout program, exceptionally uncertain growth prospects, the political and social challenges the Greek economy is facing and the fact that the country’s debt is still considered unsustainable.-FXstreet.com
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: January 31 2013
Forex Economic Calendar
2013-01-31 07:00 GMT | Germany. Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)
2013-01-31 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)
2013-01-31 13:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)Preliminar
2013-01-31 13:30 GMT | Canada. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Nov)
Forex News
2013-01-31 05:46 GMT | EUR/USD, buyers stay firmly committed
2013-01-31 05:43 GMT | AUD/NZD longs with negative swap by late 2013? – NAB
2013-01-31 04:44 GMT | EUR/AUD keeps crawling higher above 1.3050, fresh 14-month highs
2013-01-31 03:24 GMT | AUD/USD bursts through 1.04; next support at 1.0385
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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EURUSD
HIGH: 1.35838 | LOW: 1.35514 | BID: 1.35582 | ASK: 1.35587 | CHANGE: -0.05% | TIME: 08:45:47
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: A local high has been set yesterday at 1.3587 (R1). Violation here is required to provide a signal of possible uptrend resuming. Resistances at 1.3606 (R2) and 1.3624 (R3) acts as next attractive points for the bullish oriented traders. Downwards scenario: Penetration below the moving averages might maintain a negative near-term tone and overcome our support level at 1.3556 (S1). Retracement formation would then be targeting to supportive measures at 1.3536 (S2) and 1.3517 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3587, 1.3606, 1.3624
Support Levels: 1.3556, 1.3536, 1.3517
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GBPUSD
HIGH: 1.58256 | LOW: 1.57917 | BID: 1.58041 | ASK: 1.58052 | CHANGE: 0.03% | TIME: 08:45:48
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: Evidence of further uptrend formation might be provided if the pair manages to surpass key resistive barrier at 1.5827 (R1), formed on the 25-01-2013. Execution of protective orders above that level might drive market price towards to initial targets at 1.5844 (R1) and 1.5862 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although our technical indicators are bullish, the hourly structure might turn into negative territory if the price mange to overcome our support level at 1.5802 (S1). Next supportive measures locates at 1.5784 (S2) and 1.5767 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5827, 1.5844, 1.5862
Support Levels: 1.5802, 1.5784, 1.5767
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USDJPY
HIGH: 91.151 | LOW: 90.744 | BID: 90.819 | ASK: 90.824 | CHANGE: -0.29% | TIME: 08:45:49
OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY remains to be traded in neutral tone. While instrument trades below the resistance level at 91.03 (R1) market would try to form further recovery. Break here is required to attack the immediate targets at 91.22 (R2) and 91.42 (R3). Downwards scenario: Current market decline is limited to the next support level at 90.73 (S1). Only clear break here would allow further market declines towards to the base of the channel. Our next intraday support levels stay at 90.55 (S2) and 90.36 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 91.03, 91.22, 91.42
Support Levels: 90.73, 90.55, 90.36
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN FX Broker Platform | Forex Account | Currency Converter | FXCC )