Price Prediction - page 3

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Hi Daet,

I noticed you gave two levels: one for short and one for long. I have three questions concerning this, which might help you in your endeavour:

1. Are they predicted levels, I mean are they predicted to be touched in the future ? Because if it's like this, you have a "predicted" range, and you can play this range like any range ( selling at the top and buying at the bottom ). The probability of wins is the probability of your prediction. Another advantage: stoploss is relatively small.

2. Has your method the autosimilarity feature, I mean can the same method be applied on different timeframes ? Because if it's like this, you can obtain some "smaller" predicted levels on smaller timeframes, and you can follow the market action in between these "smaller" levels in order to figure out when it's probable to start a move towards a "big" level ( a level like you gave in your posts ).

3. Do you know something about the probability for a range to be formed at a predicted level, and some metrics of that range ( lenght in time, depth in pips ) ? More than this, these predicted levels are mainly reversals, continuations or mixed ? Because if you know this, you have some clues about what to do at these levels.

Hope this helps.

 

better to put some picture with your prediction and put some TEXT date and GMT there, so we could FOLLOW your move

 

Range

Sogard, nice post let me clear the confusion. After i hit my short target i mentioned two further levels to be reached, 4243 on the short side and 4400 long. After 4300 was hit today i'm not sure if the market would continue further south to hit 4243 or bounce to 4400. As i look at the charts now i see the market is heading up and i am long from 4303. I could have again shorted the market from 4300 to 4243 but decided it was oversold so instead i set a limit buy at 4243 with a TP of 4400. This was not hit. Who knows, the market may turn around and head south to hit 4243 or continue upwards BUT these two levels WILL be hit.! This is my dilema and i'm looking at ways to trade this with lowest possible drawdown.

I will keep posting these levels for those interested.

PS: The levels fall away once they are hit so range trading would not work. Also this is timeframe independent.

Good pipping!

 

Target Hit

Ok guys the 4400 level was hit today and i was long from 4303 bagging 97pips. I'm now short at 4430, 1st target is 4323 and next is 4243 still active from yesterday. I'm also testing a nice system for entry which uses no indi's but price itself. Hit rate since starting out is still 100%. Ive opened an account with ForexVPS to track the system realtime on a hosted platform. Good weekend to you all.!

 

22 August

Still short from Fridays level of 4400. Next target is 4323.

 
daet:
Still short from Fridays level of 4400. Next target is 4323.

Why don't you try with range bars or renko charts, cause they are not defined by time, they are based on PA. Btw. let me guess next level if price reach 4323, next one will be 4276.

 

Target hit

Yesterday i went short at 4401 and 4411 for intraday target of 4370 which was hit last night. I'm still short from last week with downside target now revised by 2 pips from 4323 to 4325. EUR today has traded up since the open.

Altoronto - excellent idea, i'll try Renko charts, i have the script saved somewhere. Point % Figure may work as well.

 

Drawdown

OK so yesterday we went into draw-down as the EUR moved up to 4498 and retraced rapidly to settle around 4416. The short target is still 4325 with an intraday short target of 4372. The short target of 4242 set on 12 August still stands.

Happy pipping!

 

New Targets - EUR

It took some time but all short targets have been hit.

New targets are all long: 4505 and 4430. I'm long at 4305.

Hit rate still 100%

 

EUR Klunk and drawdown..

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