PB Forex report

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PB FX report 16 june 11

Main market theme: Greek Tragedy

European markets were dominated by concerns about a Greek default. All assets traded in a risk-on environment: shares fell, EUR fell, bond spreads widened, and CDS were higher, especially those of European periphery.

Main concerns were that Germany will push back a Greek aid at least until September. But EU officials declared that Greek financing is assured until September and German banks are the second largest Greek creditor, second only to France. So, in my opinion, Greek is "saved", but since most of the money will come from Germany it is only putting pressure either to benefit from a falling EUR or to benefit from some Greek assets sale.

EUR/USD

Key level in EUR/USD is 1.4. However, pair is falling without a pause for almost 600 pips. A long pull-back is overdue. Most probable scenario is to break below 1.4 target level and then start an upward trend with a target of 1.43 - 1.44

Trading recommendation: Long below 1.4, around 1.395

GBP/USD

Key level in GBP/USD is 1.6. Same as on EUR/USD the pair will most likely break below this target only to start an upward trend. Expect strong support at 1.6 level but expect the price to go below 1.6

Trading recommendation: Long below 1.6, around 1.59

 

PB FX report 17 june 11

Main market theme: Greek "tragedy" and FOMC Press Conference next week.

Risk-on session for Europe and most financial markets. The reason for the improved sentiment were rumors of a bigger bail-out package for Greece.

However, I must caution on this positive trend. Greece will be bailed-out, but not yet. Also, i expect there is a trace of positive expectations from Wednesday's FED conference. Since most economic indicators coming from US are showing a slow-down, market will expect a reaction from FED. I think it is too early for a new commitment (QEx) but the market will hope nevertheless. I am not expecting more downturn until Wednesday.

See full article at: Profitbursier - PB FX report 17 june 11

Radu Ciofu

 
 

PB FX report 27 june 11

Main market theme: Greek "tragedy"

Trading session started cautiously this week, but risk-appetite returned as Greek parliament is expected to be in favor of the austerity package. Voting will be later this week, but as usual markets will buy the rumor and sell the news. In general i expect a positive start this week. In terms of macroeconomic data this week is pretty thin. Only major event is Fridays' ISM form the US.

Full article here >>>

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