InstaForex Wave Analysis - page 198
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GBP/JPY Elliott Wave Count and Fibonacci Levels for June 5, 2012
In April 2015, the index of producer prices for German industrial products fell by 1.5% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In March 2015, the annual rate of change was �.7%. The overall index rose by 0.1% in April 2015 (+0.1% in March and February 2015) compared with the preceding month. Given a series of macroeconomic data today is understandably a busy day on the markets. Things should pick up rapidly by today however as we have a number of high-impact data releases to look forward to. The ECB monetary policy meeting accounts are due. The French and German flash manufacturing and services PMI are due. The European flash manufacturing PMI and services PMI are due. Today, we expect the eurozone, Germany and French to deliver negative readings. Technical view: The pair fell into the strong support zone. We can call it as make-or-break zone. Ahead of the ECB monetary policy meeting, the pair has been trading in a very tight range between 1.1146 and 1.1060. The strong support zone is found at 1.1050. In the four-hour, the RSI is oversold. Ahead of major events, we expect wild moves at the intraday levels not to work out. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1185 and support is found at 1.0930. From May 14, we have been advising that the pair is likely to retest the support between 1.1100 and 1.1050. The pair exactly returned from the given resistance zone 1.1480 and 1.1535, fell by 400 pips. Until the pair closes below 1.1290 rounded to 1.1300, use every rise to sell following the trend.
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EUR/NZD long-term trend still down
Clearly EUR/NZD established a long-term downtrend. Before this, EUR/NZD failed to break above R2 (1.57 area) that would confirm a new higher high. While every new low being lower as well as every new high being lower, bears should be dominating in the mid-term future. With two different downtrend trendlines applied to the chart, a strong resistance area has come into play. This is R1 level (1.54), which is also a round number and a psychological barrier. Early this week, both trendlines have been rejected suggesting that down trend might continue. Now, it seems wise to start looking for sell opportunities on pullbacks as the market could be too low to enter the short trade at this point. Target either S2 (1.4820) or S3 (1.4636) support levels. Support: 1.5039, 1.4819, 1.4636 Resistance: 1.5398, 1.5679
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Technical analysis of EUR/AUD for May 26, 2015
All time intervals favor bears. Bulls' last hope is at 1.3680. The 50Msma is found at 1.3688, 200Wsma is seen at 1.3684. April's low is made at 1.3685. The euro is depressed by the ECB's QE and Greek saga. In the monthly and weekly charts, lower high formation is taking place. We can observe multi lows between 1.3735 and 1.3685 in the daily chart. Lower lows formation has been extending in the daily chart as well. The pair closes below near and medium-term moving averages. Early at today's Asian session, the cross has rejected at 50Dsma. The nearest support is found at 1.4000. Ideal selling is available below 1.4000 with targets at 1.3980, 1.3950, and 1.3920 initially. Risky traders can use sl 1.4045 and sell at the current level of 1.4029. Safe selling is available below 1.3980. Until the cross closes below 1.4205, bears will aim at 1.3920, 1.3810, and 1.3750.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 27, 2015
Today is understandably a quiet day for the euro because of lack of macroeconomic data. Traders shifted the focus to the US. The US housing data added extra power to the USD bulls. USD traded higher against majors. New homes purchases in the US expanded in April. The Federal Reserve's rate hike decision depends on data release. The CB consumer confidence increased moderately in May. The Index stands at 95.4 now, up from 94.3 in April. Yesterday's positive US data raised hopes on Fed's interest rate hike. The pair has been falling for 3 days. After the liquidly returns, the pair posts a big drop at yesterday's session. In seven trading session, the pair posted 4 falling days. This shows the immense selling pressure on the euro takes place. The euro bulls lost the last hope at 1.0950 when the price closed below that. We initially advised selling with sl 1.1535, 1.1130 later, and again below 1.0940, low was made at 1.0863. At today's Asian session, the euro is trading higher against USD. Ahead of Germany Gfk consumer climate data, the euro is trading higher. We expect negative readings. Use rises to sell again for the targets at 1.0820 and 1.0800 initially. On May 25, we advised selling with targets at 1.0800 and 1.0550 later. Trade: Selling below 1.0850.
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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May 28, 201
Technical outlook and chart setups: The GBP/CHF pair is trading lower around the levels of 1.4550/60 for now as expected. The pair might still want to test the level of 1.4650, the upper boundary of recent trading range, before reversing lower. It is recommended to remain short and also look to add further positions on higher levels. Immediate support is seen at rhe level of 1.4550 followed by 1.4400/1.4350, 1.4150, and lower. Resistance is seen at 1.4650 (range) followed by 1.4700, 1.4850/1.4900, and higher respectively. Trading recommendations: Remain short for now, stop at 1.4760, a target is open.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 29, 2015
According to the previous events, the price of the USD/CHF pair has been trading between 0.9556 and 0.9374. The level of 0.9556 represents the weekly pivot point. It should be noted that the weekly pivot point is coinciding with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. In consequence, sell below 0.9556 in the short term with the first target at 0.9374 in order to test support 1. If the trend is able to break the support 1 at 0.7374; then it might resume to 0.9287 with a view to form the double bottom. Hence, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the level of 0.9556 and continue towards the last bearish wave at 0.9287. However, the best location for placing your stop loss should be set at 0.9575 because the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts.
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 02, 2015
The pound hit a fresh four-week low against USD after the US manufacturing data release. The US dollar dominated against major pairs at yesterday's session. The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS PMI ticked higher to 52.0 in May, up from a revised reading of 51.8 in April (previously reported as 51.9). The UK manufacturing sector showed further modest expansions of both output and new orders in May. Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in May for the 29th consecutive month. The overall economy grew for the 72nd consecutive month. Upcoming event: Today, traders eye construction PMI. The UK construction sector has been struggling for a while, led by housing market. Technical analysis: The cable held the 20Wsma and was trading above. The weekly support was found at 1.5150 and 1.5089. At yesterday's session, the cable touched the 100Dsma and 50Dsma junction placed at 1.5165. We expect a technical bounce with a target at 1.5300 in a day or two, later 1.5525 in the extreme case. We advised to buy between 1.5150 and 1.5100 with sl 1.5089. The same theme we still recommend this week as well. In the H1 chart, lower lows and lower highs are expanding. The price has been consolidating at 1.5200 for 8-hours. As we explained earlier, technical bounce likely. For today's session risky buying is available with sl 1.5160 and targets at 1.5240, 1.5260, and 1.5300 CMP 1.5200. Safe buying will trigger above 1.5220. Intraday support is found at 1.5160 and 1.5130. Positional buying is advised with small quantity. Bulls are likely to regain strength above 1.5300 with targets at 1.5340, 1.5380, and 1.5420. In case dip takes place buyers available between 1.5130 and 1.5100.
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Daily analysis of USDX for June 03, 2015
The US Dollat Index is testing the support level of 95.74 now. If it does a breakout in that zone, the USDX will fall to the level of 94.66. Anyway, we think this corrective move is a short-term bearish bias, because the USDX aims at the upside and the immediate resistance is seen around the level of 96.97.
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Daily analysis of major pairs for June 4, 2015
EUR/USD: TThe EUR/USD pair has gone bullish as bulls continue to push the price further north. The resistance line at 1.1300 is the next target for bulls. If it gets breached to the upside, another resistance line at 1.1350 would be the next target. Certain fundamental figures are expected today and they would have an impact on the markets.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 5, 2015
Amid previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the level of 0.7079 and 0.7199. The level of 0.7079 represents a weekly double bottom in the H1 chart. It should be noted that the weekly double bottom coincides with the ratio of 00% Fibonacci retracement levels. Consequently, the new resistance has set at the level of 0.7153; for that sell below the level of 0.7153 in the long term with the first target at 0.7100. If the trend is able to break the first support at 0.7100, it might resume to 0.7079 in order to test the double bottom in the same time frame. On the other hand, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Thus, it will be rather profitable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.7205.
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