InstaForex Wave Analysis - page 168

 

Gold: bulls prevail

After a good rally, gold halted near the resistance zone. Yesterday, the market was prevailed by bulls. We penned a positive divergence in charts, hence it came true. Thanks to all the bull bidders and to the indicators. For today's trading session gold levels are following:

NEAR TERM - 1 278 strong resistance.

INTRA VIEW - Above 1,268 only upward moves.

Resistance 1,268, 1,278, 1,290, 1,295.

Support 1,255, 1,247, 1,240, 1,237.

A close above 1,295 brings more bullish sentiment. In case of a close below 1,237, bears take control. Important levels are 1,215, 1,210, CMP 1,257.More analysis - at instaforex.com

 

Gold short betting was increased

Short betting was increased in yellow metal couple of times and longs slipped. Gold lost almost 25% year to date from its 2011 peaks. Speculations increases as the Fed date comes closer. Expectations of Fed tampering of its purchasing program makes gold move southward.

Dip buying and the weakness in USD makes gold fly higher. Gold holdings with SPDR ETF were unchanged at 835.705 tonnes.

In the tech view gold is holding its June lows around 1,180. That day gold opened at 1,200 and managed to close at higher levels, but it hit a low at 1,180. For the last few days, gold managed to hold 1,210 levels and moved towards resistance levels. We can see 1,200 levels as a floor price.

Resistance: 1,268, 1,278.

Support: 1,247, 1,240, 1,233.

Close above 1,278, then the bulls dominate in the short term, until gold trades in tight zones. Cmp 1,254.

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USD/JPY intraday technical levels for December 16, 2013

During the FOMC meeting, the market participants will be cautious about opening positions, this issue will make the market move in a ranging situation before the FOMC meeting; Japan today will release some data like Tankan Manufacturing Index, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index; and the US will only release some news such as US-Flash Manufacturing PMI, US-TIC Long-Term Purchases, US-Industrial Production m/m, so today the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3 : 103.48.

Resistance. 2 : 103.28.

Resistance. 1 : 103.08.

Support. 1 : 102.83.

Support. 2 : 102.63.

Support. 3 : 102.42.

DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (102.42) and resistance 3 (103.48). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

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Exxon yearly breakout channel

Exxon Mobil shows a good rally from the October low at 84.84. It has moved all the way to 98.8. Indicators are overbought slightly. It has broken up yearly trendline. I could expect Exxon to move much more higher to levels around 103. Monthly charts are showing bigger targets. Before an upward movement, it should make some correction and consolidation to move higher.

Support 96.6 94.5 94.2

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AUD/USD analysis for December 18, 2013

AUD/USD Elliott Wave

For the last few days, the AUD/USD pair has been trading downwards, impulsive wave 5 (coloured blue) of the bigger wave 1 (coloured green) has been developing. Yesterday, during the Asian and European session we could observe descending 0.8957 towards the 0.8881 level and we can consider this as the end of the 1 wave (coloured green). Therefore, during the New York session, this commodity pair did not manage to hold this level and the price has retraced back to 0.8927 level. At the moment, the USD/CAD pair is trading around 0.8927 level and we are expecting to see more upward movements in the next few days. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave 2 should retrace 50% of wave 1 we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1 with take profit at 0.9316 (50% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at 0.8880 level as stop loss.

Support and resistance

(S3) 0.8792 (S2) 0.8837 (S1) 0.8868 (PP) 0.8913 (R1) 0.8944 (R2) 0.8989 (R3) 0.9020

Trading forecast

Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upwards movements. That is why long position at level 0.8950 with stop loss at 0.8880 and take profit at 0.9316 are recommended.

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USD/CAD analysis for December 19, 2013

USD/CAD Elliott Wave

For the last few days the USD/CAD pair has been trading upwards, impulsive wave .iii (coloured black) of the bigger wave iii (coloured blue) has been developing. Yesterday, during the Asian and European session we could observe strong ascending movement from 1.0600 towards 1.0669 level. Therefore, during the New York session this commodity pair has continued trading in a bullish mood and the price reached a new sessions high at 1.0718 level. At the moment the USD/CAD pair is trading around 1.0722 level and we are expecting to see more upwards movements in the final (5) wave.In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave 5 should retrace 61.8% of wave 4 we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 3 with take profit at 1.0797 (61.8% of wave 4). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at 1.0620 level as stop loss.

Support and Resistance

(S3) 1.0540 (S2) 1.0557 (S1) 1.0582 (PP) 1.0599 (R1) 1.0624 (R2) 1.0641 (R3) 1.0666

Trading forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upwards movements. That is why long positions at 1.0700 with stop loss at 1.0600 and take profit at 1.0797 are recommended.

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Intraday technical levels for USD/JPY for December 20, 2013

Today Japan will release some data like Monetary Policy Statement; BOJ Press Conference. The US will release the US-Final GDP q/q; and Fed Chairman Nomination Vote. So there is a probability that USD/JPY will move with low to moderately volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3 : 104.85.

Resistance. 2 : 104.65.

Resistance. 1 : 104.44.

Support. 1 : 104.18.

Support. 2 : 103.98.

Support. 3 : 103.77.

DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (103.77) and resistance 3 (104.85). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

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GBPCHF turns from resistance between 1.47-1.4750. Hold short positions

Technical outlook and chart setups:

As expected, the currency pair has reversed from the resistance zone of 1.4700/50, producing an engulfing bearish candle. Short positions might have triggered and it is recommended to hold the same and also add on intraday rallies from here on. Risk remains at 1.4900. Resistance is at 1.4900; while support is at 1.4350, followed by 1.4200 and 1.4000 respectively. The entire structure might be unfolding as a head and shoulder reversal; where the current engulfing bearish is probable right shoulder. Extensions are pointing towards 1.4150 and 1.4000 levels respectively. Prices should remain below 1.4900 levels from here on.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, set stop at 1.4910, target is open.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 26, 2013

Overview:

The GBP/USD pair was not stable and the trend was not also so clear (it was tight sideways range); moreover, according to the previous events, the price has still been trapped between the level of 1.6450 and 1.6220, so be careful in this area. Therefore, it should wait for a period of tight sideways range market before breakouts. Then, it will probably that the market is going to start showing the signs of bullish market from the support at the level 1.6220. In other words, it will be a good sign to buy above 1.6220 with the first target of 1.6350 and it will climb towards 1.6450. However, If the pair does not break 1.6473, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the resistance that will be set at the level 1.6473. The level will be strong resistance. And probably the market will call for downtrend from the level of 1.7473 in order to continue bearish towards 1.6346 (the weekly pivot point).

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Crude near resistance mark at $100.

Crude is holding above the 21EMA level facing stiff resistance at the level of $100. Intraday downside support is at $99 mark. Last week, I gave a buy call for $103 target, now I am extending the targets. Trades above the level $100 mark, it could fly towards $102, $104 levels.

Recommendation- Buy on dips with sl at $96 for targets at $104.

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