God Indicator - page 4
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Many many people say that god exist and they know and they are sure and convised about it.
When I ask them to show a photo of him they can't.
I prommisse to pay you 10K$ (I am known to keep my prommisses) if you can show me a system or set of rules that can predict the direction of the next bar on an hourly chart (or 4hour or daily chart) with a hitrate bigger then 55%.
No backtest possible and if you would do a backtest only 1 pair will be allowed and you will need to keep those settings or parameters for every other pair that I give you without changing any more of the settings or values or parameters.
No manual pushing on buttons to train NN or A.I. etc because that is all considerd as curve fitting.
Again 1 set of rules whitout ever changing the values and give proof of +55% hitrate on predicting the direction of ONLY the next bar on whatever pair or stock on hourly chart (or 4hour or daily) that would be given to you. You will maybe come up with pairs or stocks that you will score more then 55% hitrate but if I give you in total 100 pairs and stocks then again here you will not succeed to achieve to do this over more then 55 pairs or stocks.
In the spreadsheet I have build in a Monte Carlo calculation.
In default it is placed on 55% positive hitrate. The only thing it does is according a 55% hitrate go long or short on the opening price of the day and close the position at the end of the day over a 20 year period.
Click 20-30 times on the button and you will see how profitable you are if you can come up with a system that can predict the direction of the next bar with +55%.
And imagine you have this system on 10 pairs or 100 stocks and combine all the results ( diversification to smooth out your equity curve). You are a multi billionaire in no time.
Friendly regards...iGoRI can see why you are skeptical:
btw iGoR, you can predict with more certainty than 55%. I can assure you that it is done all over the place, all the time. The question is how you use the forecasts, not their percentage of correctness. Also, most forecasts cannot be assigned a percentage, they are regression problems, not classification problems.
Many many people say that god exist and they know and they are sure and convised about it.
When I ask them to show a photo of him they can't.
I prommisse to pay you 10K$ (I am known to keep my prommisses) if you can show me a system or set of rules that can predict the direction of the next bar on an hourly chart (or 4hour or daily chart) with a hitrate bigger then 55%.
No backtest possible and if you would do a backtest only 1 pair will be allowed and you will need to keep those settings or parameters for every other pair, index or stock that I give you without changing any more of the settings or values or parameters.
No manual pushing on buttons to train NN or A.I. etc because that is all considerd as curve fitting ( and lots of debate about this so not scientific).
Again 1 set of rules whitout ever changing the values and give proof of +55% hitrate on predicting the direction of ONLY the next bar on whatever pair or stock on hourly chart (or 4hour or daily) that would be given to you.
You will maybe come up with pairs or stocks that you will score clearly more then 55% hitrate but if I give you in total 100 pairs and stocks then again here you will not succeed to achieve to do this over more then 55 pairs or stocks ( it is not because the system can produce a hitrate of 80% on certain pair it proof to be cappable to predict. It needs to give proof over more then 55% over the subjects)
In the spreadsheet I have build in a Monte Carlo calculation.
In default it is placed on 55% positive hitrate. The only thing it does is according a 55% hitrate go long or short on the opening price of the day and close the position at the end of the day over a 20 year period.
Click 20-30 times on the button and you will see how profitable you are if you can come up with a system that can predict the direction of the next bar with +55%.
And imagine you have this system on 100 pairs ,indexes futures and stocks and combine all the results ( diversification to smooth out your equity curve). You are a multi billionaire in no time.
Friendly regards...iGoR
I can see why you are skeptical:
It is not a matter that I believe this and it is not about skeptical but it is a pure undebatable and scientific aproach.
Mechanical trading is pure science and based on mathematical facts.
If not then again we can all accept that god exists.
Or it is science that we can accept and is undebatable because of accepting certain rules or it is what each of us is believing.
If I want to proof that a certain medicin works better then a placebo then it needs to be given to whatever kind of person long or small big or thin yellow or black in an enviroment warm or hot north pole or south pole etc etc etc...
If more then 55% of the people react positive on my medicine then I proof that my medicine works ( even to animals).
And I need to give them all the same pil.
When I want to give proof then I need to give universal proof and not change the parameters and the values and the setup according every new client or patient or pair or stock that I have in front of me.
If I would do this then according science that is considered as "curve fitting"
Friendly regards...iGoR
Chewyraver,
I am even willing to play it according your rules or what you "believe".
I said no backtesting. Well lets change the scientific rules. You can backtest on every subject that you want to give proof on that you can predict with more then 55% accuracy
I give you data over each item that you want to test and that data is over a 20 year period. But the data I'm going to give you is between 1970-1990.
You run for ex. all the backtest you want on the eurusd or gold or oil. You let you tester run for several months till you think you have found the correct parameters. But then finshed no more backtesting.
Can you now say that with the "ideal" parameters you found that you are sure that you will have an edge of more then 55% over the last 5 years of data ?...(between 2005 and 2010)
If you are honest and listen with an open mind I know you are going to say NO.
And that you will start to think that indeed you need to test more and more and closer and closer towards the currrent market conditions...etc.... But that is curve fitting.
I hope that this short conversation we had, will open your eyes and your mind just a little bit and will put you in the "right" direction.
Friendly regards...iGoR
Show me a picture of your brain.
Oh, you can't?
We can only assume than that you have no brain.Same for you. If you want to comite suicide by shooting a bullet through you head you don't need to worry you want hit a single brain cell.
Stay away from me Mr Zidiot. I have eaten many of your kind here over the last 5 years. You are new here and you think you have a lot of predicting knowledge to share. But there is a saying: money talks bullshit walks. If you spread knowledge then show results. You will be asked sooner or later..
But your mouth and your brains are in connection with your trading results and your wallet...sad and empty
BYE......
Many many people say that god exist and they know and they are sure and convised about it.
When I ask them to show a photo of him they can't.
Wow, I didn't know that even God had to have a facebook account in order to get on to peoples cool list.
But anyways...
Let us apply this same simple logic, which you've presented, to another context.
Igor, please show to us a photo of your brain.
If you can't, than we can only be convinced that you have no brain.
...
This thread just became interesting!...keep it up guys...don't loose your head...There could be only one.
This thread just became interesting!...keep it up guys...don't loose your head...There could be only one.
Hi Pava,
Indeed..I was asking myself that it has been quite calm on the forum the last couple of months.
And I have a feeling that even this is only silence before the storm
Friendly regards...iGoR
Chewyraver,
I am even willing to play it according your rules or what you "believe".
I said no backtesting. Well lets change the scientific rules. You can backtest on every subject that you want to give proof on that you can predict with more then 55% accuracy
I give you data over each item that you want to test and that data is over a 20 year period. But the data I'm going to give you is between 1970-1990.
You run for ex. all the backtest you want on the eurusd or gold or oil. You let you tester run for several months till you think you have found the correct parameters. But then finshed no more backtesting.
Can you now say that with the "ideal" parameters you found that you are sure that you will have an edge of more then 55% over the last 5 years of data ?...(between 2005 and 2010)
If you are honest and listen with an open mind I know you are going to say NO.
And that you will start to think that indeed you need to test more and more and closer and closer towards the currrent market conditions...etc.... But that is curve fitting.
I hope that this short conversation we had, will open your eyes and your mind just a little bit and will put you in the "right" direction.
Friendly regards...iGoRI think I can see what's going on here. The remark you made about curve fitting, I thought you were saying that it is not allowed, which is why I said that it eliminates most analysis techniques. Also, I have already said that markets are different and they change, which is why I don't agree with keeping parameters static, because things change. What I do agree with is your remark earlier about not having manual buttons to calibrate machine learning algorithms, I think that should be automated. So, I guess looking at it from both of our perspectives, what parameters there are should either be left static or be adjusted automatically without intervention.
Wow, I didn't know that even God had to have a facebook account in order to get on to peoples cool list.
But anyways...
Let us apply this same simple logic, which you've presented, to another context.
Igor, please show to us a photo of your brain.
If you can't, than we can only be convinced that you have no brain.Ok everyone, lets keep this civil and religious free, I doubt that praying to God or dising God is going to make this any better.
About the brain thing, I've had an x-ray on my skull before, there was nothing inside :P (x-rays pass through flesh but not bone)